Texas Winter 2016-2017

[orangeblood]

We've just had no luck lately I mean even the cold in December we still finished warmer than normal and we can't get any moisture when it is cold. I really hope climo wins out and the best of winter is ahead but I'm just not terribly optimistic after what December was supposed to be

What really did December in was the overnight lows the last week or so. Several times the + anomalies skyrocketed because the lows were warmer than what the average high was supposed to be. While the 80s were painful, it was the lows that really did the month in. 70s and near 80s gets you about 10-15F above normal maybe 20. But 50s for lows gets you to 30 above normal.

As the theme for some years now, the overnight lows for DFW continues to warm.

Urban development/heat island effect ?

[Ntxw]

Urban development/heat island effect ?

It's pretty clear. You can see drastic differences leaving the urban areas to rural areas and the differences is pretty significant. Not quite the levels of NYC yet but that's another good example. NYC official freezes have been in some cases months later than suburban areas.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is pretty uneventful, dry front. Storm is way up north by Friday.

[bubba hotep]

0z GFS is pretty uneventful, dry front. Storm is way up north by Friday.

Unless you live in N. Cali or VA/DC...

[Brent]

CMC has accumulating snow in DFW Friday...

I feel depressed when the CMC is our only hope

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro hasn't run yet

[bubba hotep]

CMC has accumulating snow in DFW Friday...

I feel depressed when the CMC is our only hope

It brings the s/w out faster and farther south than some of the other models have been. It looks kind of like some of the better model runs from last week. I remember when my main concern was that all the energy would come out at once in a full lat trough and DFW would just get crushed with cold air and the system would get suppressed way south.

ETA: A good bit of the 12z Euro EPS members had this look and got winter weather to DFW, so it isn't out of the question.

[orangeblood]

CMC has accumulating snow in DFW Friday...

I feel depressed when the CMC is our only hope

You shouldn't...CMC was the first to pick up on the cut off solution to begin with - it might be the one to lean on at this time

[Brent]

Alright, I guess if the Euro shows some snow then I'll start getting interested, I feel like this is crunch time for this "storm"...

[Tejas89]

Urban development/heat island effect ?

Denton, Greenville, Waco and Weatherford have also had very unusual high lows if you follow the region's weather closely. A few degrees above normal can be expected due to heat island but can't explain the high frequency of lows 20+ above average. And it's only increasing in frequency each year.

[Brent]

Urban development/heat island effect ?

Denton, Greenville, Waco and Weatherford have also had very unusual high lows if you follow the region's weather closely. A few degrees above normal can be expected due to heat island but can't explain the high frequency of lows 20+ above average. And it's only increasing in frequency each year.

I've been saying here lately to other people we just don't have winters like we used to... I mean the fact that the lower teens the other week forecast at DFW was the coldest in like 5 years is more pathetic than anything imo(and then it verified too cold)...

I don't know what's going on, but something is. We get record highs or record high lows at the drop of a hat, and I can't remember how many days lately we've blown past the forecast high.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

People weren't making these comments from the Winters of 07-14.... it's been a couple of warm Winters and there is an overreaction to the change.

We had a pretty anomalous run in Texas from 07-14 on the cold side.

Hell, Houston had (I count) 12-13 Winter Weather observations over that time, which is waaaaay above average.

There's a reason why our averages are largely upper 30s to low 40s for lows and low 50s to low 60s for highs.

Teens aren't the norm but they did show up frequently for the 7 year period I mentioned.

[Ntxw]

I don't know if the surface will reflect it yet (run not fully out) but the Euro is looking more like the Canadian. The important thing is that it is getting the storm out and moving vs sitting back in the Pac NW

[Brent]

Euro is cold enough Friday... come on

Snow in Oklahoma and a little in East Texas at 108 hours

[Ntxw]

It jumps the snow band from Oklahoma to S/E of DFW. We'll take it the trend. If we can get the storm to dig, then find moisture on the guidance by Weds it's all well

That energy/vorticity coming in behind it will likely need to be watched too. It could be a feature on future runs that can change the outcome

[Brent]

Snow band between DFW and Austin at 114 hours(Friday afternoon)

Much better than last few runs

On the snow map there's a band of a half inch to 2" from south of DFW and north of Waco to Shreveport with 2" closer to Shreveport in far E TX

[Ntxw]

FWIW the 18z Para GFS, it takes forever for it to run it seems, shows similar to what the CMC and Euro has. Regular GFS OP is the furthest north of the bunch

[ThunderSleetDreams]

There ya go... by the way I just landed in Houston and promise to make good on my promise of cold and snow. I'll upload pics later.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Surprised that no one talked about the dense fog early yesterday morning! Went from DFW area to Durant, OK for NYE, and when we came out of the casino about 3am the fog was unreal. It was pretty dense all the way to Lewisville, then suddenly was gone, but from there back to Tarrant county, it seemed like there was only about a 500 mile cloud ceiling. Took me an extra hour to get back vs how long it took us to get up there.

[JDawg512]

Happy New Year everyone!!!

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect from the Austin metro through the metroplex. The storms are moving at a good clip. Quite a bit of lightning associated with the complex. Probably won't see a lot of rain due to the fast movement but it's a nice start to the year at least.