ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[MOGSY31]

30 miles West of Lafayette and our Hurricane warning has been down graded to tropical storm warning, so hopefully we will not be affected as much, that said TS is not good either, thoughts are with everyone east of us

So there are more people from Crowley on this board, yeah however if she goes over Morgan City or further East we might not even get TS stuff, however if she decides to come in over Vermillion Bay we will get a lot worse stuff and we will all be caught off guard.

Yeah we between Crowley and Rayne, hopefully the Vermilion Bay route does not come off

[shah83]

People should check out what Hurricane Isaac looked like at its best with 965mb and 80mph winds...

Ida's structure is way, way better.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Yes and situation is entirely impossible to moderate. This is where the mute button works.

Agreed, the mute button is quite effective

I'm sorry this could be the most important piece of information, how do you mute people?

Add Foe in their profile should mute them

[Maryellen46]

I went on the New Orleans subreddit…so many are staying

[wx98]

Question: when exactly is landfall predicted? From my understanding it's midday tomorrow, but not sure if my eyes are fooling me, but Ida looks pretty close to Louisiana now

Yes, looking like early afternoon tomorrow.

[lemonhead78]

So, just an (I think maybe) observation I've made on these north gulf storms: When they hit the large shallow shelf, they all lose steam quickly.

I mean, all storms "lose" something before landfall from land effects. They may be still deepening, but they deepen less b/c of land.

Deep, near, offshore water lessens it. Increased velocity perpendicular also obviously lessens it. But the north gulf is an easy category off a steady storm at 15kt, maybe a cat and half. This quick "weakening" does little to lower the storm surge (Hi cat5 to Cat3 landfalling Katrina).

But just my little (not really) prediction. Cat 2 landfall after 4. (Or 3 after 5)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I went on the New Orleans subreddit…so many are staying

Everyones got Covid fatigue and like i was saying, most of the Katrina generation left the city ages ago so the tragedy is not really much more than a footnote in history. Most of the memories are in Houston Texas and Birgmi

[prairie2]

Agreed, the mute button is quite effective

I'm sorry this could be the most important piece of information, how do you mute people?

Add Foe in their profile should mute them

Just to add, hit the FAQ button at the top left of this page. Scan down to the topic friends and foes for information.

[toad strangler]

A common theme that occurs in every single thread like this is people getting upset at others for being excited about tropical cyclone development.

Can we not continue it this time? No one here wants death or destruction. But this IS a weather enthusiast forum, you are extremely likely to see people being enthusiastic about weather, regardless of the outcome of the storm.

Anticipating a bombing out hurricane, even one that is going to hit land, is very much par for the course here. It's not meant as disrespect or insensitivity to those who are impacted/will be impacted, it's just the nature of following storms -- the same is true with storm chasers who are excited when a tornado touches down. We can be excited for the storm itself and still dreading what happens when it hits populated areas.

If you sincerely believe someone is celebrating because of imminent suffering, report it to the mods so they don't have to spend time during a major cyclonic event chasing down the impetus for another argument.

Most of us are weather buffs here. The excitement of the event comes with the territory.

<3

Yes and situation is entirely impossible to moderate. This is where the mute button works.

There's a mute button?

[Stormybajan]

RI is in progress

Also looks to be a bit right (east) of the official guidance, watch out NOLA:

https://i.postimg.cc/zvcjg6rS/goes16-ir-09-L-202108282202.gif

The next 12 hours will the most important for Ida imo over that boiling hot loop current, time to seriously watch if Ida can keep its eye opened for a while and winds begin to catch up as they have been lagging behind so far. OR this opened-closed sequence continues and she isnt able to take advantage of prime conditions in the gulf.

[sikkar]

Any reason why NOAA plane is already leaving? Feels too soon. Also what's with the circular move on their way out?

[Kohlecane]

umm whats going on with both planes

[wx98]

The Air Force plane just turned around…

[otowntiger]

Most recent microwave scan of Ida vs Gustav at approximately the same location in which dry air intrusion was clearly evident

https://i.imgur.com/TvfmRXq.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/J5F2vEF.jpg

Wow- veery interesting comparison! Great find. They are remarkably similar position and apparent intensity.

[aspen]

Bruh what is it with AF303 suddenly aborting a flight right as it enters the storm? First Henri, now Ida. This plane is nothing but trouble and probably shouldn’t even be flying if it can’t sample a storm without immediately failing.

[igoldfish]

Even with the extraordinary ability of our current, forecasting technology, along with our cumulative knowledge about 'canes, seems to me there is always that 3 hour window before landfall where all bets are off. My experience of surviving Charley's eyewall, on Pine Island, after a botched NHC forecast, left me with enormous respect for 'canes and their unpredictability. I hope we continue to improve our ability to forecast these 'canes along with significantly, improving strategies to save lives in this era of stronger hurricanes. Stay smart and strong everyone.

H Charley ( August 13, 2004) -"The hours between 11:00AM and 2:00PM, however, would see Charley transform (from Cat 2) into a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Surface winds during the period increased from 95 to 126 knots as the barometric pressure fell to 954mb. In the two hours preceding landfall, Charley’s barometric pressure would fall another 13mb to 941mb. It would maintain its Category 4 status until landfall."

[Sciencerocks]

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/254/YedeYU.gif

here comes the boom

We could be waking up to a completely different situation tomorrow morning

[GCANE]

Cirrus stacking underway on the eyewall.
Looking better for RI.

[chaser1]

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

I went through Michael.

yeah the western edge. Not in Mexico beach. this is not fun and games.

Chill people. The vast majority on this forum have a healthy respect for severe weather and specifically hurricanes. A great many here are students of the science, weather enthusiasts, some who chase the storms, & professionals. I can assure you that no one here is rooting for death and destruction in spite of a strong fascination and awe of Mother Natures' limitless power. The forum serves those who enjoy discussing the topic at hand. It also serves those seeking to gain information and insight. Those not interested in reading banter or opinions on the topic would be well served to point their browser to NHC, especially for access to official updates and warnings.

I believe "let the games begin" refers to the expectation of RI and the fascination of watching it occur in "real time". I sincerely doubt anyone thinks a Cat 4 threatening landfall in a populated location, is a game. Regardless, the opinion of others will have zero bearing on any outcome one way or another.