ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042343
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120804
233500 1507N 07028W 8428 01567 0089 +170 +162 147031 032 036 002 00
233530 1506N 07029W 8428 01566 0087 +170 +165 142028 030 036 001 00
233600 1505N 07031W 8433 01561 0087 +171 +169 144024 027 036 002 00
233630 1504N 07032W 8430 01563 0090 +160 +160 141025 027 041 010 01
233700 1503N 07033W 8433 01560 //// +143 //// 140029 031 043 014 01
233730 1502N 07034W 8429 01562 //// +140 //// 149023 027 045 023 01
233800 1501N 07036W 8432 01558 //// +140 //// 148024 026 044 020 01
233830 1500N 07037W 8430 01562 //// +139 //// 144026 027 041 011 01
233900 1459N 07038W 8434 01555 //// +147 //// 152027 029 040 009 01
233930 1458N 07039W 8430 01561 //// +150 //// 158027 030 038 006 01
234000 1457N 07041W 8434 01554 //// +143 //// 163026 030 037 006 01
234030 1457N 07042W 8426 01560 //// +149 //// 163025 025 038 008 01
234100 1456N 07044W 8430 01557 //// +155 //// 170023 027 040 007 05
234130 1455N 07046W 8433 01557 //// +158 //// 172021 023 042 009 01
234200 1455N 07047W 8427 01562 //// +159 //// 174023 027 045 009 05
234230 1455N 07049W 8429 01560 0087 +170 +170 176018 022 045 010 01
234300 1455N 07050W 8435 01554 //// +156 //// 202013 015 042 006 01
234330 1455N 07052W 8429 01558 //// +156 //// 206010 013 042 008 01
234400 1455N 07054W 8427 01558 //// +154 //// 183010 012 043 010 01
234430 1455N 07056W 8434 01556 //// +155 //// 181013 015 044 009 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Hopefully the center is tighter than it was earlier, though. We'll see, but for the flight earlier (minus the last pass through), it was not very tight at all...and weaker toward the south and western sides.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Recon indicates winds of 50mph. Nhc is obviously waiting as long as they can for 13A to see recon info.

[Shuriken]

Nice convective burst there thats for sure.

Yep; and Dvorak loves to go berserk on those (next one will probably be even more hysterical with -80 tops): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html

From the files of "Don't You Believe It (just yet)!"

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Nhc is obviously waiting as long as they can for 13A to see recon info.

[tolakram]

Waiting patiently for GE to get the latest run.

[mcheer23]

HWRF is weird..looks like it ends up in the BOC

[tolakram]

[mcheer23]

GFDL generally toward the NW gulf

[wxwatcher1999]

are their any hints this is getting close to hurricane status?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042353
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 12 20120804
234500 1455N 07057W 8422 01568 //// +150 //// 188012 014 041 008 01
234530 1455N 07059W 8435 01558 0094 +160 +160 195012 013 039 008 05
234600 1455N 07101W 8426 01567 0092 +170 +170 197013 014 040 008 01
234630 1455N 07102W 8431 01562 0087 +170 +170 192014 014 038 007 01
234700 1455N 07104W 8428 01567 0084 +178 +170 187012 013 029 008 00
234730 1455N 07106W 8433 01562 0087 +170 +170 186007 010 025 005 01
234800 1455N 07107W 8430 01565 0087 +170 +170 186008 008 027 004 01
234830 1455N 07109W 8433 01561 0085 +170 +170 201007 008 026 004 01
234900 1455N 07111W 8427 01566 0085 +170 +170 197007 008 023 005 01
234930 1455N 07112W 8429 01563 0084 +180 +180 197007 008 019 004 05
235000 1456N 07114W 8431 01560 0083 +170 +170 211007 007 016 004 01
235030 1456N 07116W 8428 01562 0079 +170 +170 209007 008 014 003 01
235100 1457N 07117W 8430 01560 0077 +181 +171 215009 010 017 002 03
235130 1457N 07119W 8428 01561 0075 +181 +176 222008 010 019 001 00
235200 1458N 07120W 8429 01558 0075 +181 +177 214009 010 017 003 00
235230 1459N 07122W 8430 01558 0077 +180 +176 211010 011 014 003 03
235300 1500N 07123W 8429 01560 0076 +180 +165 205009 011 014 003 00
235330 1501N 07124W 8429 01560 0076 +180 +155 198006 008 011 004 03
235400 1502N 07126W 8433 01556 0075 +181 +157 187005 006 015 002 00
235430 1503N 07128W 8429 01558 0072 +185 +164 159005 005 017 002 00
$$
;

[LSU2001]

I love this satellite view. I just found it but it shows the convective burst nicely.
Tim

[Hurricaneman]

are their any hints this is getting close to hurricane status?

no, if anything it seems to have weakened

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hammy]

seems like they over-estimated intensity based on what recon is finding--it seems weaker if anything than it was earlier

[tolakram]

[mcheer23]

Didn't realize how quickly 8 will come. Probably no upgrade... wait till 11.

Upgrade to what? Its weaker.

[Hurricaneman]

the low is at the NW end of the convection, this storm is still decoupled

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Didn't realize how quickly 8 will come. Probably no upgrade... wait till 11.

Upgrade to what? Its weaker.

When I say upgrade I mean higher intensity, and no! This is NOT weaker!

[lester]

Didn't realize how quickly 8 will come. Probably no upgrade... wait till 11.

Upgrade to what? Its weaker.

It's only the first set..wouldn't say it's weaker yet

[wxsouth]

Still not vertically stacked. Until this happens, the system will not intensify. However, with the organization of the mid/upper levels, once the low-level flow relaxes and the system aligns, I suspect it will rapidly intensify. When will that be? That's the big question.