CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KFDM Meteorologist]

138 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think this run was out to lunch. The storm isn't pegged nearly at what we assume will be the correct intensity. Think about it... if Dean traverses teh hot carribean virtually unscathed by any land interaction, do you really think it will get WEAKER?! Please!

A strnger storm will certainly go more poleward. If Dean is in the middle of some rapid intensification (possibly now), by the time he gets closer to the troughs, there will be more affect on him, causing a more northerly drift.

This will probably be considered a bogus run in retrospect.

(I have also noticed that Erin is going more northerly than projected just a few hours ago, which will cause more time over water and more strengthening possibility (only slight mind you, but still. )

[KFDM Meteorologist]

150 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

[HURAKAN]

FRESH:

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like across Yucatan into BOC and back into Mexico.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

150 surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[Pearl River]

I'm not crazy about the GFS either, considering the crazy swings it does.

[Scorpion]

With enough time Dean will grow into a much larger system

[Opal storm]

Did it just move SOUTH over the Yucatan??

[knotimpaired]

Thank you for all of your responses.

Yes, we do have challenges that the US do not have and I am worried that our interests, basically our lives do not get set aside. We have families, friends, our lives are in the islands.

I just want to say that all of the Dean threads seem to be pushing the cart before the horse.

Cannot we all gather together here in the basin, ask for expert advice without the armchair mets to know exactly what is going on and where?

Vieques, Salinas, San Juan, Ponce, Isabella, all of Puerto Rico. But let us not forget

Culebra
Us Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
St Croix to the south
Angilla
Saba
St Kitts
Nevis
Antigua
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Dominica
Martinique
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Off to east Barbados
Grenada
Trinidad and Tobago

I could probably name every cay on each island and I am sure I missed a few. My father was a Geography Professer at one of the major US universities. I knew every inch of the caribbean since I was a child.

I grew to love them before I came to live here but I know for a fact, this is my home and only home matters.

So please let us get back to basics and worry about the horse for now. 8 days out we can worry about the cart.

Please, that is all I ask.

I do not know if you realize when you live on a island a a hurricane strikes, you cannot run away.

It must be nice to have I-95 running in both directions getting you out..

On my island we do not have a traffic light.

How do you think we feel when we depend on a ferry that probably not run for days? That is our food?

Oops forgot, you always have Publix. Sorry.

yes, you forgot me, as irina posted. St. Maarten reporting in here.
we are carefully watching. People are out today preparing. I see the gas stations are busy.
The harbor is preparing. Mariners are urged to get their boats in the lagoon for safety as we do expect high seas.
read our daily paper here for the latest
http://www.thedailyherald.com/
you can also check this site for our official forecast.. the met office is monitoring it all.
http://www.meteo.an/

Please know I did not forget you. I struggled over Sint - Saint and figured that you knew you were in our thoughts.

[Wx_Warrior]

2nd trend in a row to Mexico????

[DESTRUCTION5]

I can easily see our 1st cane here by 5PM

[LAwxrgal]

On that imagery, Dean looks to be intensifying. He's taking on the classic comma shape that marks a cyclone.

Is it just me or is he a compact little system? His moisture envelope seems pretty small.

[tracyswfla]

I can easily see our 1st cane here by 5PM

I think you're right.

[Scorpion]

On that imagery, Dean looks to be intensifying. He's taking on the classic comma shape that marks a cyclone.

Is it just me or is he a compact little system? His moisture envelope seems pretty small.

I disagree... Dean has that similar comma shape that Katrina had before she blew up.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

168 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[HURAKAN]

It will be a very interesting next 24 hrs. Like Derek pointed out, small system can intensify very quicky and weaken very quickly. Dean seems to be going up the ladder. The islands need to be more cautious now than ever.

[HeatherAKC]

This may be a case of garbage in = garbage out.

We need recon, baby! And some actual sampling of the atmosphere and set up near Dean.

I'm buying the southern TREND, but these models don't mean a thing yet.

[x-y-no]

Historically, the GFS has been overly weak with mid-level ridging in the medium time-frame (breaking down the ridge too fast.) It sure doesn't seem to be doing that in this year's incarnation.

I'd note that the operational run has been the north outlier of the ensemble suite for most recent runs, so I really can't dismiss this track out of hand. But my feeling is it's under-doing the response to the weakness of Florida a bit, and a track to the northern end of the Yucatan is more likely.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

168 500.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Mexico or TX in this run.