ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[meteorologyman]

slightly off topic. Look at all the moisture in gulf from TS Alex and ULL. All the moisture heading in Gulf States. Look what happened in central Fl around 6p EST. It exploded. I think we're in for a lot of rain this week.

[JTE50]

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

[jim70769]

Newbie here, great information here even though I don't understand all the terms etc. But I am slowly learning. I live in Prairieville (between new Orleans and Baton Rouge) we are planning on going to Pa. on Tuesday. After reading the posts here I'm wondering if I should send the family and I stay here. What do you guys think the chances we will be affected here and when should they have a good idea where it will go.

Thanks

[Ikester]

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

I saw the exact same thing. It's prolly just a wobble or the center circulation around the broader low...

Upon further inspection, the expanding CDO may play tricks on you as well. I think the general motion is still NW IMO

[wxman57]

One thing that may help with the future model runs is that I heard there was supposed to be a G-IV upper-air flight today to sample the upper air pattern across the Gulf ahead of Alex. In addition, I believe that coastal RAOB stations were tasked with taking extra observations in advance of the storm. I'm not sure if either of these occurred today, or if or when the data might be incorporated into the models.

[wxman57]

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

I saw the exact same thing. It's prolly just a wobble or the center circulation around the broader low...

Upon further inspection, the expanding CDO may play tricks on you as well. I think the general motion is still NW IMO

I believe that the LLC is NE of that apparent center on satellite. That is an MLC. A bit of an optical illusion, too.

[Ivanhater]

One thing that may help with the future model runs is that I heard there was supposed to be a G-IV upper-air flight today to sample the upper air pattern across the Gulf ahead of Alex. In addition, I believe that coastal RAOB stations were tasked with taking extra observations in advance of the storm. I'm not sure if either of these occurred today, or if or when the data might be incorporated into the models.

Starts tomorrow





ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 29/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0701A ALEX
C. 28/2030Z
D. 21.1N 93.4W
E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0801A ALEX
C. 29/0845Z
D. 21.8N 94.2W
E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT FOR 30/0000Z.

3. REMARKS: NOAA 42 WILL BE DOING RESEARCH FLIGHTS INTO
ALEX WITH TAKEOFFS EVERY 12 HRS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
(28/0800Z, 28/2000Z ETC.) OPERATING ALTITUDE 12,000 FT.

[ozonepete]

One thing that may help with the future model runs is that I heard there was supposed to be a G-IV upper-air flight today to sample the upper air pattern across the Gulf ahead of Alex. In addition, I believe that coastal RAOB stations were tasked with taking extra observations in advance of the storm. I'm not sure if either of these occurred today, or if or when the data might be incorporated into the models.

Would be really great if they did. even just a few extra balloon launches would be really helpful, and if they really did (or do) send out a Gulfstream-IV, that would be an awesome help. Obviously the future upper air conditions ahead of Alex are really sketchy now.

[LSU2001]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Jim,
I think that by tomorrow evening we should have a much better idea of Alex's eventual track. Intensity will be a different matter. I would think that a landfall near the Texas border would be about as far north as we will see but in the tropics weird things can and do happen.

A landfall around the Texas border or west would have minimal effects on Prarieville I would guess. You could see some TS force winds if Alex reaches Major cane status. However, everything is still up in the air and we cant give an hard and fast info. Your best bet is to watch the NHC and make personal decisions based upon official guidance.
Tim

[Dean4Storms]

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

I saw the exact same thing. It's prolly just a wobble or the center circulation around the broader low...

Upon further inspection, the expanding CDO may play tricks on you as well. I think the general motion is still NW IMO

I believe that the LLC is NE of that apparent center on satellite. That is an MLC. A bit of an optical illusion, too.

Yep he seems to be slightly tilted still from SW to NE.

[jinftl]

Sorry if this has already been posted....excerpt from discussion Dr. Jeff Masters posted late today...interesting to consider that if a more northern track develops, that may actually be less conducive to intensification over the next few days...

"Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday.

However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1521

[vbhoutex]

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

Just how long have you been up Jim? J/K I know what you saw and it is deceiving to watch. Alex is still on a wnw course coming off the Yucatan. What you saw was some consolidation of the core of the system along with a blow up of convection, imo.

[Jessie]

Ivan
You started at a young age and you've been doing this for quite some time now. Your knowledge does really amaze me. What are your thoughts ---- where is this storm likely to head ----- I know it's just your opinion, but I've been reading your posts for years and I do listen to what you say.

[jinftl]

Wobble watch with a tropical depression can't be good for the eyes! (I speak from experience....lol) The exact center of circulation may very well be broad and jump around...certainly possible that the system could develop new center(s) as he prepares for his Act II!

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

Just how long have you been up Jim? J/K I know what you saw and it is deceiving to watch. Alex is still on a wnw course coming off the Yucatan. What you saw was some consolidation of the core of the system along with a blow up of convection, imo.

[jeff]

My 2 cents.

Looking more likely toward N MX or S TX from S of CRP...may be N of where Dolly went in. Would not discount even more northward...but the spread is starting to shrink a tad this evening. TX is really going to have to get things moving early tomorrow. Preparation window is closing...minus SPI and BRO...the location between CRP and BRO would be the best landfall location. We should have our answers by this time tomorrow on the track...at least better confidence. NHC will likely shift northward at 10pm as they are near the southern edge of the guidance cluster...but I would not go too far until a few more runs are in and the thing gets more over the Gulf.

[NWFWatcher]

People here on the panhandle can't take a hurricane along with all this oil.

[Comanche]

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[jinftl]

5pm - 19.2N 90.9W
11pm - 19.4N 91.3W

= 0.2 deg north and 0.4 west, or WNW!!!


Biggest change since 5pm...pressure drop of 8mb (999mb down to 991mb)!!! He's coming back fast....

[JTE50]

I think my eyes are playing tricks on me but it looked like Alex whobbled SW with an eye feature near the coast. Anyone else see that?

I saw the exact same thing. It's prolly just a wobble or the center circulation around the broader low...

Upon further inspection, the expanding CDO may play tricks on you as well. I think the general motion is still NW IMO

I believe that the LLC is NE of that apparent center on satellite. That is an MLC. A bit of an optical illusion, too.

Ah, thanks for the extra set of eyes.
Good they are sending up the G4. Forecast will be better with their dropsonde data. Here is a shot of the G4 loading up for a Katrina flight. We flew about 8K miles all around Katrina as she was off Key West. They plug in the data points in the auto pilot and it's a smooth ride around the perimeter careful not to drop in Katrina's winds.

[Comanche]

So based on that post, they don't appear to think Alex (45mph now), will take the northern solution.