Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

142 days and counting - WOOHOO!!!!

[dhweather]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth

Lakes starting to respond & rain not over. Lake Grapevine up nearly a foot since yesterday. Lake Waco up 3/4 of a foot. #dfwweather #txwx

[Kennethb]

Here in south Baton Rouge we had about 7 inches of rain last night. About an inch of new rain so far today. Looks like several more inches of rain tonight. Lots of shoveling to do.

[NDG]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

If that statement is true,you have to put a blame not to the AO,NAO,PNA,PDO,EPO but to the state of ENSO that presently is almost at La Nina status at [b]-0.3C

I was only kidding Cycloneye! It has been a great winter, for most of us already. Since the solstice it has been cold (look at map below) There are still a few to have yet experience wintry weather but most everyone else has. It's on par with some of the best analog years for cold and we're not even a month into it yet, with some modest drought relief thus far

http://i50.tinypic.com/28grxqb.gif

This Meteorological Winter so far Texas and much of the westersn States have seen the benefit from the -PNA and when the PNA went positive recently, a +NAO helped the cold air find a home in the south central States.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's blog over the recent rain event. A couple days of mild and sunny, and more moisture this weekend into next week. 3.5 inches at the Weatherdude1108 Weather Center since yesterday from this event! I think the weather service forecast of 2-4 inches was SPOT ON.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Texas Snowman]

Remember the song "The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia"?

The sound of crickets on this thread tonight makes me want to pen another version of that song! Except this one will have to do with Texas 2012-13 winter.

Or maybe we can get Charlie Daniels to do a remake of "The Devil Went Down to Georgia." This one will be about the day Wxman57 went to Austin and converted Portastorm to the dark side!

[gpsnowman]

Amen Texas Snowman. Way too quiet tonight. I usually play catch up with all the posts at work but it did not take long at all. Doesn't anyone have a sliver of good news tonight?

[orangeblood]

Things are starting to look a lot more interesting for later next week...the system coming out of the southwest, if it ejects out at the right time, has a chance to phase with the northern branch and create quite a winter storm from Texas to the east coast. Both the Euro and Canadian are starting to pick up on this but differ in timing

[NDG]

Things are starting to look a lot more interesting for later next week...the system coming out of the southwest, if it ejects out at the right time, has a chance to phase with the northern branch and create quite a winter storm from Texas to the east coast. Both the Euro and Canadian are starting to pick up on this but differ in timing

I don't see either models showing heights low enough for much snow across the deep south, except for northern TX before the southwest ULL starts dying out as it moves eastward.
Regarding the CMC I don't trust that model on its long range forecast for nothing in the world, barely on its short range.

[orangeblood]

Things are starting to look a lot more interesting for later next week...the system coming out of the southwest, if it ejects out at the right time, has a chance to phase with the northern branch and create quite a winter storm from Texas to the east coast. Both the Euro and Canadian are starting to pick up on this but differ in timing

I don't see either models showing heights low enough for much snow across the deep south, except for northern TX before the southwest ULL starts dying out as it moves eastward.
Regarding the CMC I don't trust that model on its long range forecast for nothing in the world, barely on its short range.

Never said they were showing the storm yet....the Upper Level pattern the models are trending towards are becoming much more favorable for a storm. It's not a deep south type of setup, more of a Dallas to DC but there are some GFS ensemble members showing snow as far south as Central Texas as the low ejects out. Thickness values look like they'll be low enough for snow across the northern half of Texas if this storm can tap into any new/fresh cold air coming down in the northern branch and is stronger than the operational models are showing at this time. Bear watch

[Snowman67]

We may have to file a missing person report on Porta. I fear that he may be locked away in 57's heat miser cave...

[Ntxw]

Things are starting to look a lot more interesting for later next week...the system coming out of the southwest, if it ejects out at the right time, has a chance to phase with the northern branch and create quite a winter storm from Texas to the east coast. Both the Euro and Canadian are starting to pick up on this but differ in timing

It is a good analog for it with NE Pac ridge. Models can't seem to figure out which system they want to consolidate for it last several days but the threat for wintry weather may extend as far south as I-10 in Texas

[Portastorm]

Whew … what happened?! One minute I’m enjoying a great lunch and conversation with Wxman57 and the next I’m whisked away to a world where there are palm trees, constant sunshine, little or no wind and a temperature that never dips below 75. Persons in that world hate cold weather and live for the warm days. And when you breathe the air, you develop that attitude. I couldn’t escape it! The words out of my lips and through my fingers were full of warmth. Wow!

When I awoke this morning, I realized I was hyponotized or something. I came back to my senses and got here as quick as I could. I couldn’t get a glass of ice water soon enough. I wanted to see an 850mb zero-degree isotherm. I wanted to see a meteogram for Austin with blue and turquoise lines at the bottom. I wanted to see snow and sleet falling from the sky.

It’s been a crazy 24 hours, friends.

[orangeblood]

Things are starting to look a lot more interesting for later next week...the system coming out of the southwest, if it ejects out at the right time, has a chance to phase with the northern branch and create quite a winter storm from Texas to the east coast. Both the Euro and Canadian are starting to pick up on this but differ in timing

It is a good analog for it with NE Pac ridge. Models can't seem to figure out which system they want to consolidate for it last several days but the threat for wintry weather may extend as far south as I-10 in Texas

Last night's Euro shows a mix rain/snow on Monday across North Texas with a high of only 33 at DFW and then another bout of wintry weather on Thursday. Also now in the NAM range and it's showing something very similar to the Euro with monday's system.

[Tireman4]

Whew … what happened?! One minute I’m enjoying a great lunch and conversation with Wxman57 and the next I’m whisked away to a world where there are palm trees, constant sunshine, little or no wind and a temperature that never dips below 75. Persons in that world hate cold weather and live for the warm days. And when you breathe the air, you develop that attitude. I couldn’t escape it! The words out of my lips and through my fingers were full of warmth. Wow!

When I awoke this morning, I realized I was hyponotized or something. I came back to my senses and got here as quick as I could. I couldn’t get a glass of ice water soon enough. I wanted to see an 850mb zero-degree isotherm. I wanted to see a meteogram for Austin with blue and turquoise lines at the bottom. I wanted to see snow and sleet falling from the sky.

It’s been a crazy 24 hours, friends.

You have fought your way back Porta. You were strong. Stay strong. Do not let the dark side get to you.

[Portastorm]

With regards to any potential winter weather event in Texas next week ... I see it depending namely on two things:

1) How much cold air will filter south as a result of the weekend front and will it keep surface temps at or below freezing?

2) How much overruning precip develops?

The Euro seems more bullish than the GFS for both of these but I think it's far from certain. The dividing line also seems to bi-sect the state in a northeast-southwest fashion.

I don't think we'll have a good idea on this deal until the weekend. Gotta see what those upstream temps look like as well as how that cutoff low in the southwest behaves.

[somethingfunny]

Whew … what happened?! One minute I’m enjoying a great lunch and conversation with Wxman57 and the next I’m whisked away to a world where there are palm trees, constant sunshine, little or no wind and a temperature that never dips below 75. Persons in that world hate cold weather and live for the warm days. And when you breathe the air, you develop that attitude. I couldn’t escape it! The words out of my lips and through my fingers were full of warmth. Wow!

When I awoke this morning, I realized I was hyponotized or something. I came back to my senses and got here as quick as I could. I couldn’t get a glass of ice water soon enough. I wanted to see an 850mb zero-degree isotherm. I wanted to see a meteogram for Austin with blue and turquoise lines at the bottom. I wanted to see snow and sleet falling from the sky.

It’s been a crazy 24 hours, friends.

Sixth Street does that to a lot of people.

I'll bet he used the icestorm line of argument. Nobody wants an ice storm... but don't listen to him, we don't know that it would be an ice storm. Not for certain, anyway...

[Ntxw]

1) How much cold air will filter south as a result of the weekend front and will it keep surface temps at or below freezing?

Lets take a look at source region



Not terribly cold for mid winter but it is vast courtesy of a deep snow-pack. Recovered fast even after the +PNA flushing out cold air. Seems shallow too, 850s are not as cold as that surface map currently shows meaning the GFS is likely underestimating it. Euro keeps pushing the air undercutting the SE ridge, GFS uses the ridge to push back more. My money will be on the Euro regarding cold air movement, it's always better

[bevolon]

Any chance of anything exciting, winter weather wise, in the next week or two? Haven't been able to keep up with any of the post last several days. Thanks ,

[Ntxw]

12z Euro continues what it did 0z. As orangeblood said this morning, a swath of wintry precip early next week for North Texas, then another event (it has a lot of snow for the Red River valley) Thurs/Fri

Longer range it's back putting up cold and big highs into Canada