ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

Farther North it would probably have Sandy impacts, but for the Delmarva that would be one hell of a storm. Again, I really think the GFS has been trying to kill me these last few days.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is that landfall further North or further South than the last GFS run?

[Steve]

Philly and all of South Jersey gets smacked on that run too. There are a lot of people in that corridor. MD is about the upper extreme I thought GFS would come in at on this run. You figured it was going to hit somewhere based on the earlier guidance. I think it will probably continue to move farther south, but it's liked a US East Coast hit on a lot of runs. Interested to see where the CMC ends now. Irma then goes through Central NY State and still has a western heading up into Hudson Bay which I'm pretty sure is the farthest west it has had in the end game.

Probably at least Cat 2/3 conditions all the way from the OBX through all of SE VA and on up at least into southern PA.
25 million people?

[meriland29]

I don't think there has really ever been a hurricane to hit at that magnitude there, at least from the historical map I see. I could be wrong..

Certainly not in recorded history. There may have been one around 1400 C.E, according to coastal mud core samples, but that is pure conjecture.

Is it even possible given the water temps there? I assume that is why any major landfall in the past is ..well.. pure conjecture..

[poof121]

Is that landfall further North or further South than the last GFS run?

South. 18Z was New York.

[MetroMike]

Confused as to why the GEFS ensembles focus in the SE conus but the GFS continues to defy its ensembles.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I don't think there has really ever been a hurricane to hit at that magnitude there, at least from the historical map I see. I could be wrong..

Certainly not in recorded history. There may have been one around 1400 C.E, according to coastal mud core samples, but that is pure conjecture.

Is it even possible given the water temps there? I assume that is why any major landfall in the past is ..well.. pure conjecture..

Read the below article for further info -

http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/es ... Jersey.pdf

This second article is sadly no longer available for free, but you can read the summary -

http://www.gsapubs.org/gsabulletin/arti ... edFrom=PDF

[weathaguyry]

CMC is OTS, but it fizzles out the trough really fast

[RL3AO]

Confused as to why the GEFS ensembles focus in the SE conus but the GFS continues to defy its ensembles.

That should tell you the models are extremely sensitive to something in the steering pattern.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Confused as to why the GEFS ensembles focus in the SE conus but the GFS continues to defy its ensembles.

It shifted to the west for sure which was in line with the ensembles. If the ensembles don't budge then look for more W shifts in the future.

[Stormcenter]

Time to move alone now, nothing to see here with Irma. She is a fish storm. Just being factious.

[Steve]

GFS finally turns Irma east across Hudson Bay and has a double-eye system following Irma's track at the very end of the run with a high coming off the US. ?

My bad. It's only up to 252. It looks like a double yolk egg storm. Sensing a repeat threat.

[AtlanticWind]

Time to move alone now, nothing to see here with Irma. She is a fish storm. Just being factious.

I don't want to move alone!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

It is however interesting to see them predict a system will be that strong, that far north. It seems extremely rare..

If this indeed occurs it might very well unthrone the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 as the most intense northern hurricane ever known. A truly frightening thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Col ... ne_of_1635

Humm You better fire up the flux capacitor in the DeLorean and get the correct mb.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It is however interesting to see them predict a system will be that strong, that far north. It seems extremely rare..

If this indeed occurs it might very well unthrone the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 as the most intense northern hurricane ever known. A truly frightening thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Col ... ne_of_1635

Humm You better fire up the flux capacitor in the DeLorean and get the correct mb.

Nah, I'll just stick with the Hurricane Center Research Division's estimate.

[meriland29]

Is Irma losing some steam?

[Steve]

288hrs and another big system is off the US SE Coast approaching. Depicted pretty clearly for 12 days out. Double threat for us says the GFS. But it sharply recurves that out to sea. It's one of the biggest systems you will see. Let's hope that isn't anything.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=336

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is Irma losing some steam?

It'll pick back up in a day or so once it leaves the dry/stable/cool air.

[pcolaman]

All I see is the constant shift west each run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

****. 288 and another big system is off the US SE Coast approaching. Depicted pretty clearly for 12 days out. Double threat for us says the GFS.

Would that be future Jose or a new system that has yet to form?