Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the storm is currently being pushed SW by the system to the north. However, once the storm gets far enough west it looks (based on WV) like it may get drawn back WNW or NW again.

[tgenius]

I think the storm is currently being pushed SW by the system to the north. However, once the storm gets far enough west it looks (based on WV) like it may get drawn back WNW or NW again.

What timeframe do you think?

[JonathanBelles]

i believe it is taking a turn but the next recon (which is when?) will tell the tale

[CronkPSU]

i believe it is taking a turn but the next recon (which is when?) will tell the tale

i think it will arrive there around 2 AM

[tgenius]

i believe it is taking a turn but the next recon (which is when?) will tell the tale

pushed back WNW or NW fact, or towards WSW?

[Damar91]

Unless the page was wrong the latest t-numbers are at a 4.0/4.0. Can that be right?

[tgenius]

I keep seeing the Dvorak T4.0 thrown around, but recon doesn't support that number right?

[CronkPSU]

Unless the page was wrong the latest t-numbers are at a 4.0/4.0. Can that be right?

Derek said earlier those are just estimates, we have recon so we should trust the recon numbers instead

[jhamps10]

i diddn't think recon confirmed numbers like that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the storm is currently being pushed SW by the system to the north. However, once the storm gets far enough west it looks (based on WV) like it may get drawn back WNW or NW again.

What timeframe do you think?

I think it should start to turn back toward the WNW within the next few hours. In fact, Puerto Rico radar already shows a more westward motion, which means this short jog WSW may already be over.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 030026
A. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (THREE)
B. 02/2331Z (57)
C. 19.7N/7
D. 64.0W/0
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS -02/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

13A/ PBO TGTLY CRVD BND/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.20 USING THE
LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES...
MET YIELDS A 3.5.

AODT: T4.5 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI



Derek,what do you think of the Air Force sat estimates?

[Damar91]

Oh, How I wish he would make up his mind already!

[jhamps10]

ok, clearly there has been some shear effecting our buddy chris this evening, is this shear supposed to be lessening overnight, or will we continue to see chris looking a little bit under the weather

[Trugunzn]

Dvorak estimates

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt

[tgenius]

Dvorak estimates

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt

on Dvorak estimates are windspeeds Surface level wind?

[marcane_1973]

The last frames it looks to be moving due west that is if the little red orange blob is the actual center??? That is the problem with Chris. His center is pretty weak and he is wasting time getting his eyewall created. If he does not get his center located where he wants it to stay to start the next cycle of formation then i am afraid he may be doomed and just be a tropical storm here on out or possibly just fizzle out to nothing but i doubt that theory. The actual center has not been able to get its act together since first forming into a depression. The longer it takes chances are Chris may turn out to be nothing especially with hostile conditions maybe being in place in the near future.

[Brent]

Dvorak estimates

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt

on Dvorak estimates are windspeeds Surface level wind?

Yes.

[HouTXmetro]

weaker chris equals more north based on the 850 steering levels, that's what I was told.

[JonathanBelles]

Dvorak estimates

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt

where do you get these?

[miamicanes177]

I agree with Derek that recon trumps the dvorak estimates. Having said that, I believe the NHC will take in all information possible in forming their forecast.