ATL: IRENE - Models

[plasticup]

Thats got to be the worst case scenario for GA/SC. Irene strengthening for 2 straight days in the gulf stream before landfall.

Absolutely. If it survives Hispaniola and doesn't run over Florida, then Georgia and South Carolina could be in trouble.

[TBCaneFreak]

TBCaneFreak, really it comes up from the SSE, its not quite Hugo but actually the upper pattern isn't *that* far off, nowhere near that extreme of course but its not so far off overall when looking at the key features.

Not to metion I just looked at 79 David...very sinilar...MY BAD

[thundercam96]

A question here. I'm an old time storm follower who really only gets his model info second hand. Am I right or just dead wrong by saying that recent model runs don't quite show the consistency of earlier ones. Almost all the early ones took this on a simple path up the penninsula of Fl. Seems like later runs have some models beginning to spread to the east, and a couple beginning to spread some to the west.

That's a good observation. I wonder what element of uncertainty is causing them to spread.

Probably the models are still debating the strength after Hispanola or if it even crosses hispanola

[miamijaaz]

Was the GFS more east or west of its previous run?

[pgoss11]

I know people are wondering why the models that over recent days were all over the peninsula of Florida and even in the Gulf and now are further north, but we were over a week away when the models were forecasting these plots. Now we are 5 -6 six days out from a landfall and the models have more information and more of a handle on the synoptics. I'm not saying the models won't shift a little more, but I think it's fair to say, we are close to seeing what will happen. I believe the intensity of the storm is still a huge question, depending on how much land interaction happens over the next few days. For me.. a shift a little more east would be just fine by me..

[stormreader]

A question here. I'm an old time storm follower who really only gets his model info second hand. Am I right or just dead wrong by saying that recent model runs don't quite show the consistency of earlier ones. Almost all the early ones took this on a simple path up the penninsula of Fl. Seems like later runs have some models beginning to spread to the east, and a couple beginning to spread some to the west.

That's a good observation. I wonder what element of uncertainty is causing them to spread.

Thanks. The consensus is still very near Fl, but the spread has opened some, which in my mind makes for a little less certainty. I'm reminded of what one of the pro mets said here last night (can't remember his name now, sorry). But he was going a little by climo I think, in speculating that we should not be too quick to expect strong troughs, this early in the season, to automatically pull this thing as strongly north as models were indicating. He speculated that a further west move was not totally out of the question. Anyway, I guess I'll wait for you guys to post more model runs.

[StormClouds63]

Mentioned last evening ...
Looking at those latest model runs, the gap between the 2 high pressures is quickly closed shut ... leaving GA/Carolinas not only with a hurricane, but a stalled out system with likely torrential rainfall.

[fci]

Agreed AF, its close enough to be worried of large wobbles which would bring the western section of the likely hurricane onshore.

Landfalls Saturday morning as probably a major hurricane near the Ga/SC border.

Two runs in a row east of Florida though....

A storm of that potential magnitude will still bring nasty weather to the east coast of Florida, especially from Palm Beach northward.

15 runs in a row of a storm at or over Florida should not be discounted because of two runs of the core of the storm being, at maximum, 50 miles off the coastline...

Actually, I can't recall a storm passing to our east that caused much bad weather at all.
West is almost always the weak side of the storm and we usually get a little bit of gusty winds and a squall or two.
Someone will probably remind me of one but it is not usually a problem when a storm passes to our east.

[S2K1]

Mentioned last evening ...
Looking at those latest model runs, the gap between the 2 high pressures is quickly closed shut ... leaving GA/Carolinas not only with a hurricane, but a stalled out system with likely torrential rainfall.

Yep, I think she is going to park, and perhaps take a left.

[SouthDadeFish]

Edit: sorry wrong thread. 18Z GFS seemed pretty similar to the 12Z run or at least through the first 96 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah the 18z run is very similar to the 12z run it has to be said.

now we've gotta wait and see if the 18z GFDL shifts further east and what the HWRF does with it as well...

[bamajammer4eva]

Actually, I can't recall a storm passing to our east that caused much bad weather at all.
West is almost always the weak side of the storm and we usually get a little bit of gusty winds and a squall or two.
Someone will probably remind me of one but it is not usually a problem when a storm passes to our east.

Hurricane Irene 1999 caused extensive damage to FL/Carolinas as it crossed extreme Southeast FL then moved up the coast just offshore.

In addition the winds damaged 465 mobile homes, 15 severely, and destroyed one. 555 commercial buildings also experienced light damage, and gusty winds downed about 1,000 trees. Rough seas broke a large barge free from its mooring into a bridge on Florida Highway 528.[22] In Flagler County, the hurricane caused severe damage to four homes, and minor damage to 173 houses and 18 businesses.[23] Damage in northeastern Florida totaled to $51 million (1999 USD, $60 million 2006 USD).[24]

[AdamFirst]

For the record....

12z EURO Ensemble at 120hr has it riding the east coast of Florida...pretty much.

[fci]

Actually, I can't recall a storm passing to our east that caused much bad weather at all.
West is almost always the weak side of the storm and we usually get a little bit of gusty winds and a squall or two.
Someone will probably remind me of one but it is not usually a problem when a storm passes to our east.

Hurricane Irene 1999 caused extensive damage to FL/Carolinas as it crossed extreme Southeast FL then moved up the coast just offshore.

In addition the winds damaged 465 mobile homes, 15 severely, and destroyed one. 555 commercial buildings also experienced light damage, and gusty winds downed about 1,000 trees. Rough seas broke a large barge free from its mooring into a bridge on Florida Highway 528.[22] In Flagler County, the hurricane caused severe damage to four homes, and minor damage to 173 houses and 18 businesses.[23] Damage in northeastern Florida totaled to $51 million (1999 USD, $60 million 2006 USD).[24]

I appreciate the reference (and of all things to IRENE!!!???!!) but I did not explain myself well in my post.

I meant a storm that passes us to the east, not making actual landfall.

[sunnyday]

Florida is just a very blessed state most of the time as far as storms go. I know--andrew, terrible storm, Jeanne, Frances, and Wilma, too==but all in all, something usually, usually, not always, takes it away from the state. Florida looks so vulnerable out in the water, but it must have some kind of protection going on! Just my opinion--see NHC products for accurate info.

[SFLcane]

A NOAA G-IV jet will fly at high altitude and drop radio transmitting instruments to measure the atmosphere more precisely at the listed spots. This should give us a better idea on exactly how the steering currents should influence Irene's track.

[thundercam96]

Florida is just a very blessed state most of the time as far as storms go. I know--andrew, terrible storm, Jeanne, Frances, and Wilma, too==but all in all, something usually, usually, not always, takes it away from the state. Florida looks so vulnerable out in the water, but it must have some kind of protection going on! Just my opinion--see NHC products for accurate info.

Forgot Charley , 2004

[fci]

Florida is just a very blessed state most of the time as far as storms go. I know--andrew, terrible storm, Jeanne, Frances, and Wilma, too==but all in all, something usually, usually, not always, takes it away from the state. Florida looks so vulnerable out in the water, but it must have some kind of protection going on! Just my opinion--see NHC products for accurate info.

Particularly South Florida.
Considering how we are exposed, one would expect more hits than we get. That little spurt with the three storms notwithstanding.

Of course there are other places in the state with the "shields" that have kept them safer.....Tampa, Jacksonville........

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF at 66 hours, a little East of the 12z run:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2066.gif

EDIT: fixed mistake.

[charleston_winds]

just my feeling on Irene i see this as a Fla storm myself, really not ready for a hurricane here in Summerville sc myself,and our local weathermen ain't saying too much about it yet