ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2721 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:31 pm

Did that tchp map imply that the gulf isn't warm? It's showing mid 80s on buoys....of is it another factor that takes into account water temp at depth, etc.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2722 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:33 pm

in 12 hrs gfs break down the ridging completely over the florida and the gulf. the road is open

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#2723 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:35 pm

How quickly does ridging change? 12 hours is not far away at all but is it something that can just as quickly build back in? I am just curious how much that means on a landfall 5 days away.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneWarning92
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)

#2724 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:35 pm

People were almost forgetting about us in southeast Florida. Looks like we arent out of the woods yet.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Sabanic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
Location: Mobile, AL
Contact:
Contact Sabanic

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2725 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:35 pm

Definitely going to be an interesting next few days
0 likes   
"I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me" - Philippians 4:13
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#2726 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:39 pm

at 24 hours the gfs is slightly slower than the 18z. or about 20 miles ese ridging has fully collapsed the door is open.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#2727 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:40 pm

0z GFS + 24

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

Re:

#2728 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:at 24 hours the gfs is slightly slower than the 18z. or about 20 miles ese ridging has fully collapsed the door is open.


Does that mean the storm would automatically head that way or does something (trough?) have to swing down and scoop him up? Probably a dumb question but I am still learning...
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2729 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

36 hrs. even slower .

18z
Image

0z

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#2730 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

H36 far eastern tip of cuba
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6370
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re:

#2731 Postby boca » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:at 24 hours the gfs is slightly slower than the 18z. or about 20 miles ese ridging has fully collapsed the door is open.


If the ridge is collaspsing theirs hardly any northerly componet to Issacs movement.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Sabanic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
Location: Mobile, AL
Contact:
Contact Sabanic

Re:

#2732 Postby Sabanic » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:41 pm

Looks to be right where the NHC has him in 24



Jevo wrote:0z GFS + 24

Image
0 likes   
"I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me" - Philippians 4:13
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#2733 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:42 pm

H42 eastern cuba
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2734 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 pm

48 Hour position is definitely slower and more north than the 18z

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#2735 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 pm

so far out to 42 hours about 50 miles east of 18z
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#2736 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:43 pm

0z GFS +48

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1070
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2737 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:44 pm

this is changing again it appears.. :double:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2738 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:48 Hour position is definitely slower and more north than the 18z

SFT



uh I am looking at the comparison now...looks the same... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#2739 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:45 pm

H48 looks to possibly be exiting or about to into straits from eastern cuba..looks much like 18Z and further to the right then 12Z..interesting synoptics as well.....
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2740 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:45 pm

JPmia wrote:this is changing again it appears.. :double:


as the pros have been saying it would. ( not the tv people lol)
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests