ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2721 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:10 am

When does the next recon take off?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2722 Postby TropicalSailor » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:10 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:When does the next recon take off?


18z maybe?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2723 Postby ronjon » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:10 am

Organization starting to come together as clearly there's a circulation center - now appearing to tuck underneath the deep convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-vis-long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2724 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:11 am

image from just around sun rise when it started to take shape. the circ is clearly visible with inflow. more recently there is evidence of some banding and inflow channels starting up on the west side which at the time of the image there was not.

original http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/A ... W.88pc.jpg
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2725 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:11 am

Looks like it is out of the dreaded shear zone for now.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2726 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:11 am

Image

This is big. Look at sheer conditions now and the tendency is that they are becoming more favorable
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2727 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:12 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2728 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:14 am

I took a nap after being up very late these past few nights for some odd reason. Didn't recon get rolled up for today? Is it back on the POD now? Or did I sleep until 2017's hurricane season - which is very possible considering how stressful this has been - just waiting for something to happen. Anyhow, is recon back on?

BTW - great to see Storm2k back in action with so many familiar folks coming in and contributing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2729 Postby TropicalSailor » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:15 am

HurriGuy wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

This is big. Look at sheer conditions now and the tendency is that they are becoming more favorable


Seeing this will not let me forget about that 06z HWRF run.
Last edited by TropicalSailor on Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2730 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:15 am

Wow what timing 8-) :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2731 Postby hohnywx » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:When does the next recon take off?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

Looks like 2330z or 7:30
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2732 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Maybe an eddy, but never seen convection being pulled towards an eddy? @23N/74.5W... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2733 Postby TimeZone » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

Shear has dropped off significantly. If it doesn't get going now, I doubt it ever will.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2734 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:16 am

IF it does get its act together, then SFL would likely be under TS Warnings from the get-go.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2735 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:18 am

I was simply saying if it keeps trending east it will not make it in the Gulf of Mexico unless it is a brief time period which would be a very good thing. In the end nature will do what it wants.[/quote]

Good point!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2736 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:19 am

You know what sucks? I've already seen and spoke to people who believe that we no longer have a TS on the way.

This wave has roughly 700+ miles of warm waters to go through.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2737 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:19 am

hohnywx wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:When does the next recon take off?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

Looks like 2330z or 7:30


noaa plane leaves at 18z

3. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR 25/2330Z AND 26/0530Z CANCELED.
B. MISSION FOR 26/1130Z AND 26/1730Z CHANGED TO FLIGHT
ONE ABOVE.
C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL CONTINUE RESEARCH MISSIONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS WITH TAKEOFFS AT 0600Z
AND 1800Z.
D. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION AROUND HURRICANE GASTON
DEPARTING 26/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 80 DROPS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2738 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:20 am

hurricanetrack wrote:I took a nap after being up very late these past few nights for some odd reason. Didn't recon get rolled up for today? Is it back on the POD now? Or did I sleep until 2017's hurricane season - which is very possible considering how stressful this has been - just waiting for something to happen. Anyhow, is recon back on?

BTW - great to see Storm2k back in action with so many familiar folks coming in and contributing.


Hey there Mark...Good to see you on here. I've lost some sleep the past few nights as well. After yesterday's collapse of 99L I slept well last night. 99L continues to confound the experts and the models it seems. What a strange system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2739 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:21 am

Blown Away wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/im2ykk.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Maybe an eddy, but never seen convection being pulled towards an eddy? @23N/74.5W... :D



That looks like the center to me. Could be wrong but I see what you are pointing out there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2740 Postby ronyan » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:22 am

:uarrow: Is that the center you are following Aric or is it closer to the convection?
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