ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

looks to me she is shearing out now...maybe have better luck on the other side.....

[BigB0882]

So, according to the NHC historical track map, it is currently ever so slightly NNW of where they thought it would be at this time? If it is going to head W then it better do it now, otherwise this is looking more and more like a FL storm and a GFS win.

[mutley]

looks to me she is shearing out now...maybe have better luck on the other side.....

What do you mean by "shearing out"?

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1201 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1158 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[Rockin4NOLA]

Hey all, haven't been on here in a while. Guess not since Gustav. Anyway, what do we think of the current NHC track? Seems like the way its moving now a landfall in the panhandle would be more likely...

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, just saw Recon got a 69kt Flight Level wind in the NW Quad?

Anyone know what the translation to the surface was and how far out from the center this was?

[ROCK]

looks to me she is shearing out now...maybe have better luck on the other side.....

What do you mean by "shearing out"?

decoupling....MLC from the LLC

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking through the first two advisory discussions for relevant comments:

Advisory 1:
EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN
EASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD
SCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST
EARLIER THAN INDICATED.

Advisory 2:
ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE
ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.


Oh how quickly things can change. GFS should not have been discounted that quickly.

[ndale]

I know we like to geek out on tracks, predictions and crow... but can we all just give one HOLY CRAP for NHC for Debby? I for one would hate to be in that forecaster chair today. =)

I'm in that forecast chair, and I'm hoping I awaken from this nightmare any minute...

Is it still a nightmare Wxman57, you seem to be sure it is headed for the Fl panhandle or is there still some uncetainties out there. I don't think I can buy into the models saying a ridge could develop to the north of Debby. Is there any possibility of that?

[artist]

TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-241630-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0019.120624T1556Z-120624T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1156 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1153 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTH
OF GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...
BIG CORKSCREW ISLAND...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES

[StarmanHDB]

"THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX....WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK AT ANY TIME."

~Forecaster: Avila

Even though research and technology has dramatically advanced the science of meteorology, as TS Debby is showing us, there will always be an inherent amount of uncertainty in forecasting. While a lot of storm2k members are strongly questioning (I didn't want to use the word "criticize", but....) the NHC for choosing ("jumping on") the westward track, knowing that NHC official forecasts do affect the lives of millions, I will not join that chorus.

Over the past two weeks I intently followed the flip-flopping and indecision of both the Euro and the GFS models, the flip-flopping of various members of this site concerning their thoughts on those models, and lastly, Debby's continuing journey through cyclogenesis. While I enjoy following these threads, based on the fact that the more-respected pro mets amongst the storm2k group who usually do chime in with incredibly accurate forecasts were keeping mysteriously quiet, it should come as no surprise to any of storm2k's regular members that the eventual Debby was going to throw a monkey wrench into a lot of what pro mets, amateur mets, and enthusiasts thought they (and we) knew concerning tropical cyclone forecasting.

All of this said, I do applaud Lixion Avila for his public explanation as to the NHC's thoughts concerning the forecasting of TS Debby as well as his statement concerning the inherent uncertainties of the current situation demanding the possibilities of changing the forecast track at any time. Indeed, Debby is teaching us all some much needed lessons. I have a feeling that whatever happens with Debby, she will be studied and researched for years to come!

[Dave]

[stormandan28]

GFS Maybe the new


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

24 hours ago (still 96L:


Now:


There is still much uncertainty, but the consensus has tightened up. How things change in just a day.

[Portastorm]

This is the Debby discussion forum not the model forum. Let's stay on topic, please.

[Ntxw]

If she continues in the motion, there is a lot of shear around her.

[artist]

This is the Debby discussion forum not the model forum. Let's stay on topic, please.

so you don't want the models to be discussed here? I can understand not posting them here, but would think discussion of them here would be pertinent to the discussion of the storm. Not trying to buck you, just want clarification, please.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1207 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PALMDALE...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PALMDALE...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PALMDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[tropicwatch]

If she continues in the motion, there is a lot of shear around her.

I am looking forward to the 1800utc map.

[Portastorm]

This is the Debby discussion forum not the model forum. Let's stay on topic, please.

so you don't want the models to be discussed here? I can understand not posting them here, but would think discussion of them here would be pertinent to the discussion of the storm. Not trying to buck you, just want clarification, please.

There is a Debby model discussion thread and a storm thread. It's simple, really ... if you're talking about the computer models and their depiction of the storm, do it in the model thread. Anything else on Debby ... satellite, latest obs, shear, radar, etc., do it in this forum.

If you need further clarification, PM me.