ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2741 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:56 pm

Even the NHC is warning you in its discussions. Track error at day 4 and 5 can be considerable. I think everyone needs to respect the limitations of modeling. It's possible we could have large shifts in track. Be careful.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2742 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:57 pm

Looks like I got my wish with the OTS scenario that is finally in the models. Just wishing that no one has to deal with it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2743 Postby hurrtracker79 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:58 pm

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/781636792520966146


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2744 Postby hurrtracker79 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:59 pm

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/781644046221664260


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2745 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:59 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Looks like I got my wish with the OTS scenario that is finally in the models. Just wishing that no one has to deal with it.


Too early IMO to say your wish could be granted.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2746 Postby La Sirena » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFDL approaching the FL Keys

https://s3.postimg.org/c99su98rn/gfdl_m ... 4_L_22.png

Glad I didn't look at that model. :eek:
Last edited by Ntxw on Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed img tags
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2747 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:01 pm

Alyono wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:
Alyono wrote:As I said before, compare the recon vortex message with the model positions as of 0Z. The models have been too fast to the west today

Was the Euro like 150 miles too fast to the west in the beginning of its run?



The 12Z EC today? I'd have to check

I would estimate a 150 mile difference at 168 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2748 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:02 pm

Some posters are in serious denial about possible CONUS threats.
Last edited by centuryv58 on Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2749 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:04 pm

centuryv58 wrote:Some posters are in serious denial about CONUS threats.

Nah man it's OTS. No threat here. Look at the GFS and Euro. Florida should be breathing a sigh of relief.
Sarcasm
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2750 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:06 pm

Not sure how the GFDL-p (parent) differs from the GFDL but it looks to be even closer to south Fla http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2751 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:09 pm

FWIW the NAM has Matthew about 150 miles straight south of Jamaica by about 150 miles in 84 hours. I know, it's the NAM...I was looking at it for the 500mb pattern over the CONUS :spam:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2752 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:09 pm

all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2753 Postby pcolaman » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:15 pm

meriland23 wrote:all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.



Was thinking the same thing. This storm keeps going west and models keep going west. So still a day or so from the turn and models going west then looks like Fla is definitely in the cone and possibly the whole peninsula of Florida which would be a catastrophe
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2754 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:15 pm

meriland23 wrote:all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.


Pretty much. I'm thinking this trending west brings the Outer Banks, NC landfall in stronger possibility.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2755 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:19 pm

meriland23 wrote:all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.

Frankly I'm much more interested to see if the NHC tracks start trending west. So far they really have not. The nice thing about having a designated cyclone is you get a new track from the pros every 6 hours and I view that as far more valuable than raw model output...since I'm not a pro.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2756 Postby La Sirena » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:27 pm

Just trying to get the times straight---

NHC at 11 tonight?
GFS at 11 tonight?
Euro overnight?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2757 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:31 pm

La Sirena wrote:Just trying to get the times straight---

NHC at 11 tonight?
GFS at 11 tonight?
Euro overnight?


Nhc advisory at 11
Gfs starts at 11:30
Euro starts at 1:45


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2758 Postby La Sirena » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:32 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
La Sirena wrote:Just trying to get the times straight---

NHC at 11 tonight?
GFS at 11 tonight?
Euro overnight?


Nhc advisory at 11
Gfs starts at 11:30
Euro starts at 1:45


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk


Many thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2759 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:33 pm

psyclone wrote:
meriland23 wrote:all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.

Frankly I'm much more interested to see if the NHC tracks start trending west. So far they really have not. The nice thing about having a designated cyclone is you get a new track from the pros every 6 hours and I view that as far more valuable than raw model output...since I'm not a pro.


This.

Let's be honest, if the NHC doesn't buy in, it's just model noise.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2760 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:35 pm

Ken711 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:all y'all need to focus on the fact models are trending west more and not the fact it's currently fishing in the models.


Pretty much. I'm thinking this trending west brings the Outer Banks, NC landfall in stronger possibility.


Also, I kind of have a feeling in my gut that this may be a huge problem for NEUS.
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