ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06_ens.gif

So there is still some ensembles that go into Florida and Georgia, so nothing is out of the question.

Id say that Florida is still in play until the ridge actually moves into place or the storm stops heading west and south of west. At first the models over did the ridge and now they are leaning back the other way. I still don't think they have a firm grip on the strength of the ridge as the nhc has been clear about.

With that said Id say Florida has very minimal chances but its still on the table. Probably less than 10% chance.

[Steve]

Note that EC at 24 is slower with Gordon’s remnants. Previous run was southern Ohio but 00z is still back in southern KY. So maybe enhanced rain ahead of the front for the Appalachians and Ohio River Valley. It’s riding north of the ridge at 500mb which doesn’t look different from 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=24

[Steve]

Euro 20mb stronger and maybe a hair NNE. Biggest heights of the ridge are a little farther north as well, but this angle is even more likely to direct it to the coast imho. It’s a block.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=72

[Steve]

Nobody’s up. Haha. HWRF into the SC/NC border area around 120/123 hours. Appears to be a strong 3.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=120

HMON hits the Central NC Coast. Looks like a strong 3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=126

[TheDreamTraveler]

Nobody’s up. Haha. HWRF into the SC/NC border area around 120/123 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=120

HMON hits the Central NC Coast. Looks like a strong 3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=126

Yeah it's dead quiet in here compared to lastnight lol. Hour 96 it looks like it's around the same general area as 12z euro

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looks like there's a tiny bit more ridging to the west at hour 96

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like there's a tiny bit more riding to the west at hour 96

Sadly, yes. This likely will not be going anywhere this run.

[Steve]

It’s close but the EC is north by about 50-75 miles from 12z at 96. Notice though the ridge building in stronger into the Delmarva overtop. No way this can recurve. Also low res shows 960 instead of 975. Trend starting with the NAM was a deeper system, so that’s not good.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=96

[TheDreamTraveler]

landfall around the south and north carolina border it looks like. just a tiny bit west of 12z. even with the new data it's still showing a similar solution

[Blinhart]

Nobody’s up. Haha. HWRF into the SC/NC border area around 120/123 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=120

HMON hits the Central NC Coast. Looks like a strong 3

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=126

Yeah it's dead quiet in here compared to lastnight lol. Hour 96 it looks like it's around the same general area as 12z euro

Probably everyone resting up because it is about to get very interesting not just for the East Coast but also for the Islands (Guam, Hawaii and Caribbean) in the next few days, so people will be trying to cover many different things.

[Steve]

landfall around the south and north carolina border it looks like

Very close to the NHC’s last track by Cape Fear and Southport and Carolina Beach - that part of the coast. Looks like the ridge is weakening north at 120 so maybe this gets out.

[TheDreamTraveler]

landfall around the south and north carolina border it looks like

Very close to the NHC’s last track by Cape Fear and Southport and Carolina Beach - that part of the coast. Looks like the ridge is weakening north at 120 so maybe this gets out.

Yeah I'm wondering if it rots and dies inland like the last few euro runs or tries to get out faster. because if it doesnt then its going to be a huge flood threat

[Blinhart]

landfall around the south and north carolina border it looks like. just a tiny bit west of 12z.

And look at Helene there in the middle of the basin with a ghost system to its NW, and Isaac in the Caribbean.

[TheDreamTraveler]

hour 144 moving NNW a little more slowly

looks like its going to rot away inland around the mid atlantic.

[PandaCitrus]

Wilmington lanfall, goes inland in NC

[aperson]

958 hPa and weakening at landfall according to 00z euro.

[Steve]

hour 144 moving NNW a little more slowly

Yeah. It’s weakening. Bad run for the coast but it’s moving along unlike the gfs. Ridging still strong to the north, but a shortwave is cutting across around the Montana and Canadian border. Might take its time and cause flooding but nothing like GFS. Hard to tell if it will ride west of DC, Baltimore and Philly, but it sort of looks like it might.

[TheDreamTraveler]

hour 144 moving NNW a little more slowly

Yeah. It’s weakening. Bad run for the coast but it’s moving along unlike the gfs. Ridging still strong to the north, but a shortwave is cutting across around the Montana and Canadian border. Might take its time and cause flooding but nothing like GFS. Hard to tell if it will ride west of DC, Baltimore and Philly, but it sort of looks like it might.

Surprising the FV3-GFS shows a similar solution like the past couple euro runs and not like the normal GFS. I'll post it

[PandaCitrus]

It looks like a slow down/stall around the NC/VA border.

[MississippiWx]

Wilmington lanfall, goes inland in NC

North Carolinians/South Carolinians should be preparing now for a landfall from a major hurricane in 5 days. The Euro continues to lock into a landfall area.