Texas Winter 2015-2016

[wxman57]

That looks like a pattern to deliver Arctic air to Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes, not the Southern Plains.

[orangeblood]

According to the latest Euro Weeklies, Winter is just beginning....pops the Alaskan Ridge with cross-polar flow for a sustained 2-3 week period starting end of week 2. Any cold air on the other side of the Globe is coming directly over to our side for the last 1/3rd of Winter. it appears!!!

[orangeblood]

That looks like a pattern to deliver Arctic air to Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes, not the Southern Plains.

That ridge is retrograding towards the end of day 9-10 and building massive HP in Western Canada...that kind of pattern should overwhelm from the Rockies eastward

[gpsnowman]

Well I have been excited, bummed, excited, bummed again, then excited and yet nothing has happened at all in DFW. Here I am watching Chip Waggoner report traffic waiting for the weather. Ho-hum. Maybe I will see some winter fun when we travel to Santa Fe over spring break. Not sure what the weather in Santa Fe is like in mid-March so I will have to do some research. An early spring blizzard would be very cool. The averages here are starting to climb and I am getting worried nothing will happen.

[srainhoutx]

Well I have been excited, bummed, excited, bummed again, then excited and yet nothing has happened at all in DFW. Here I am watching Chip Waggoner report traffic waiting for the weather. Ho-hum. Maybe I will see some winter fun when we travel to Santa Fe over spring break. Not sure what the weather in Santa Fe is like in mid-March so I will have to do some research. An early spring blizzard would be very cool. The averages here are starting to climb and I am getting worried nothing will happen.

Take a short 2 hour drive North to Taos. All the ski areas (Red River, Taos, Angle Fire) are doing very well and typically February, March and even into April in El Nino winters there is a lot of snow. The Rio Grande Gorge just West of the City of Taos is worth the trip.

[gpsnowman]

Well I have been excited, bummed, excited, bummed again, then excited and yet nothing has happened at all in DFW. Here I am watching Chip Waggoner report traffic waiting for the weather. Ho-hum. Maybe I will see some winter fun when we travel to Santa Fe over spring break. Not sure what the weather in Santa Fe is like in mid-March so I will have to do some research. An early spring blizzard would be very cool. The averages here are starting to climb and I am getting worried nothing will happen.

Take a short 2 hour drive North to Taos. All the ski areas (Red River, Taos, Angle Fire) are doing very well and typically February, March and even into April in El Nino winters there is a lot of snow. The Rio Grande Gorge just West of the City of Taos is worth the trip.

Thanks for the info srainhoutx! We are not planning on skiing while on vacation but traveling to see some snowy landscape is in the works. Just hope the Altima doesn't encounter some treacherous roads.

[TheProfessor]

The upper levels must be very cold above me because I saw some snow and sleet mix in with rain with a 41 degrees surface temperature.

[Brent]

Man the GFS is looking awesome tonight... a 1054 mb high in Western Canada drops down at day 10(haven't seen that much this year) and then there's still a signal for a big winter storm in the day 11-12 timeframe...

It has almost 4 days below freezing at DFW...

Our averages may be going up... but clearly in climo February/March is snowier than the colder months of December/January...

[wxman57]

Handle was pulled on the GFS slot machine again at 06Z and now the cold air and all that snow across Texas (down to the coast) is gone. 00Z Euro looks like the 6Z GFS - more of the same weather we've been having for weeks. Really, I don't see any significant cross-Polar flow at all in the Euro out through 15 days. I do see a lot of relatively warm air near the Pole in 10 days and some cold air directed across the Great lakes - same time the 00Z GFS had the big snow storm in Texas with the giant high center. Don't fall for it again.

I plotted a meteogram for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from the 00Z GFS and then the 06Z GFS. Yeah, highs in the 20s starting the 8th and lasting for days. But the 06Z run has highs in 60s with rain over the same period, similar to the Euro. The 00Z GFS is just not believable.

[EnnisTx]

Handle was pulled on the GFS slot machine again at 06Z and now the cold air and all that snow across Texas (down to the coast) is gone. 00Z Euro looks like the 6Z GFS - more of the same weather we've been having for weeks. Really, I don't see any significant cross-Polar flow at all in the Euro out through 15 days. I do see a lot of relatively warm air near the Pole in 10 days and some cold air directed across the Great lakes - same time the 00Z GFS had the big snow storm in Texas with the giant high center. Don't fall for it again.

I plotted a meteogram for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from the 00Z GFS and then the 06Z GFS. Yeah, highs in the 20s starting the 8th and lasting for days. But the 06Z run has highs in 60s with rain over the same period, similar to the Euro. The 00Z GFS is just not believable.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png

Just go ahead and run that light saber through my heart......... Darth Hater!!

[orangeblood]

Handle was pulled on the GFS slot machine again at 06Z and now the cold air and all that snow across Texas (down to the coast) is gone. 00Z Euro looks like the 6Z GFS - more of the same weather we've been having for weeks. Really, I don't see any significant cross-Polar flow at all in the Euro out through 15 days. I do see a lot of relatively warm air near the Pole in 10 days and some cold air directed across the Great lakes - same time the 00Z GFS had the big snow storm in Texas with the giant high center. Don't fall for it again.

I plotted a meteogram for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from the 00Z GFS and then the 06Z GFS. Yeah, highs in the 20s starting the 8th and lasting for days. But the 06Z run has highs in 60s with rain over the same period, similar to the Euro. The 00Z GFS is just not believable.

Not sure what Euro you're looking at but how is this not "Significant" cross-polar flow (Euro is almost identical to GFS-ENS image below) ?? Day 10-15 has an extremely cold look on both the GFS, Canadian and Euro Ensembles....

[wxman57]

Not sure what Euro you're looking at but how is this not "Significant" cross-polar flow ?? Day 10-15 has an extremely cold look on both the GFS, Canadian and Euro Ensembles....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_46.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_49.png

That isn't cross-Polar flow at all. It's flow from the Gulf of Alaska into northern Canada then back south to the U.S. Cross-Polar flow is more like the image below, though it doesn't extend to the Pole. Look at the top-center of the image. The flow is coming straight south across the Pole (from Siberia, not the Gulf of Alaska).

Here's a video demonstrating cross-Polar flow. It originates in Siberia, tracks north to the Pole then south through Canada to the U.S. It doesn't originate in the Gulf of Alaska:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwX8l_Pytr8

I'm not saying that the first 10 days of February won't bring some cold weather to Texas. This will quite possibly be the coldest 10 days (or so) of the winter. But that's not saying much. Low to mid 20s into the Dallas area and a low near 30 in north Houston.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the 06Z GFS ensemble members, many have a ~1050mb high over the Plains and lots of STJ moisture for the second week of Feb. I am getting pretty nervous about driving back from NM on the 8th. I am hoping it will shift back a couple days to around the 10th.

Update: Some -15C 850mb showing up in northern TX on some members during this period.

[wxman57]

The 00Z GFS giveth while the 06Z GFS taketh away:

00Z GFS Meteogram for Dallas-Ft. Worth


06Z GFS Meteogram for Dallas-Ft. Worth

[Ralph's Weather]

The 00Z GFS giveth while the 06Z GFS taketh away:

As you know run to run op run variation can be huge at 10+ days out. Ensembles are pretty consistent with at least a good portion of members showing snow and cold for TX that week.

[Ntxw]

I still don't buy the more north discussion from the next storm. Some guidance is stronger with the norther stream Sun/Mon carving for a more southerly route. May not mean anything but I stand by the systems at the base of troughs.

Anyway big tornado outbreak in dixie next week. If the path is more southerly will have to watch east/SE texas

[Snowman67]

Change it back like it was in the 00Z Heat Miser! We all know your hands are on the "dial"!

[orangeblood]

Not sure what Euro you're looking at but how is this not "Significant" cross-polar flow ?? Day 10-15 has an extremely cold look on both the GFS, Canadian and Euro Ensembles....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_46.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_49.png

That isn't cross-Polar flow at all. It's flow from the Gulf of Alaska into northern Canada then back south to the U.S. Cross-Polar flow is more like the image below, though it doesn't extend to the Pole. Look at the top-center of the image. The flow is coming straight south across the Pole (from Siberia, not the Gulf of Alaska).

Well it's either Arctic Air or Siberian air invading the pattern in the 10-15 day time frame....it looks to be bitterly cold no matter where it's coming from. The blockade in the eastern Pacific is preventing any modified Pacific air from infiltrating the pattern in the long range...

[PTrackerLA]

I just want one hard freeze down to the gulf coast, we need to kill off the bugs before spring!

[wxman57]

00Z Euro ensembles indicate the coldest day of the next 15 is next Wednesday night/Thursday morning, when 850mb temps reach 0C down to Houston and about -3C in the D-FW area. Beyond then, the cold air stays northeast of Texas for the most part. The EC ensembles do indicate the 0C 850mb isotherm getting close to D-FW again around the 10th. Nothing extreme indicated temperature-wise across Texas over the next 10-15 days.

00Z EC operational run is a tad colder next week with the 850mb temps. Still 0C down to Houston next Wed/Thu but -4 or -5C down to D-FW. That could indicate lows in the low-mid 20s possible in the Dallas area and a light freeze down here.

Don't hold your breath for a hard freeze down to the Gulf Coast. It's not looking too likely this winter. However, it's not completely out of the question late next month or early in March.

Next week's low will form lee of the Rockies near the OK Panhandle on Monday afternoon/evening then track northeastward, keeping the snow well north of the D-FW area. Could be a few snowflakes across central OK beneath the upper low on Tuesday.