2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Hammy]

http://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1299415095840305153?s=20

This seems pretty much based on climo. Don't see this occurring.

There's model support for everything shown there, the same models that have been hesitant so far this season.

[Cpv17]

http://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1299415095840305153?s=20

So it looks like they expect to have something headed into the Gulf when most of the models just bury the wave into CA.

[MarioProtVI]

I've been going through the 2013 archives I'm noticing similarities--albeit in the opposite direction. Both years the models had struggled significantly.

While 2013 there were unfavorable elements the models weren't picking up (that the pattern wasn't simply part of the typical atmospheric phases), and were thus developing and strengthening everything, it seems like there's some favorable background factor that for whatever reason the models just aren't able to pick up on and thus are either developing nothing, not strengthening them (see Laura for example), or simply not being consistent when they finally do start showing development.

https://i.imgur.com/5NrdE61.jpg

One visible anomaly though (which is likely contributing to the MDR being less active than it otherwise has the potential for) is the ITCZ is well north of where it's normally at--it's almost as if the entire Atlantic weather pattern has shifted west by thousands of miles. Marco's entire genesis, track, and trough where it's at reminded me of something you'd see closer to 60-70W rather than in the Gulf, and the subtropical-origin systems this year seem more typical of storms forming in the central or northeastern Atlantic, not off the east coast.

In addition to some delayed development this is leading to storms either recurving much further west than normal--such as Isaias track--or simply ending up stronger than you'd expect for the initial condition of the waves--Hanna and Laura being examples.

I think that favorable factor the models are unable to pick up on properly is what allowed storms like Gonzalo and Josephine, etc to develop and get fairly strong even when the Atlantic was in a suppressed phase. Wonder if the expert forecasters know this and was part of the forecast for such extreme activity despite models being very bad this year. Probably how they learned from 2013.

I think the forecasts will likely verify except for maybe ACE unless the ITCZ begins retreating south (and according to some charts it may be starting to) and allows for MDR activity to flourish and allow CV majors perhaps — which I still think will happen during September, just the problem is we don’t know when because the models are having such a poor time, so I think we and especially those who basically hug the models ( ) will be in for a surprise during September. It’ll be interesting post-season how they determine why the models were acting so poorly this year (asides from COVID and lack of air flights).

[Hammy]

Is anybody else thinking the MDR looks more like the eastern Pacific should? That entire low level flow south of about 15N is out of the west.

[aspen]

If waves continue to struggle east of 50-60W, I think the likelihood of a Caribbean Cruiser during September is high. Some low-riding wave doesn’t get its act together until it nears the Lesser Antilles, and tracks south of the Greater Antilles and is able to intensify into a powerful system.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1299875496369573893

[CyclonicFury]

I have to admit, I'm a bit surprised we haven't had a hurricane in the MDR yet. We're quickly closing in on September. The vast majority of hyperactive Atlantic seasons have a hurricane in the MDR before the end of August. So far, 2020 hasn't had one. The Atlantic is about to go its third straight year without a MDR hurricane in August, which is somewhat unusual considering how active 2018 and 2019 were (and how active 2020 is expected to be).

[toad strangler]

I have to admit, I'm a bit surprised we haven't had a hurricane in the MDR yet. We're quickly closing in on September. The vast majority of hyperactive Atlantic seasons have a hurricane in the MDR before the end of August. So far, 2020 hasn't had one. The Atlantic is about to go its third straight year without a MDR hurricane in August, which is somewhat unusual considering how active 2018 and 2019 were (and how active 2020 is expected to be).

Tropical seasons are far too random to stress over checking off each "normal" box as the pole markers are reached.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I have to admit, I'm a bit surprised we haven't had a hurricane in the MDR yet. We're quickly closing in on September. The vast majority of hyperactive Atlantic seasons have a hurricane in the MDR before the end of August. So far, 2020 hasn't had one. The Atlantic is about to go its third straight year without a MDR hurricane in August, which is somewhat unusual considering how active 2018 and 2019 were (and how active 2020 is expected to be).

Tropical seasons are far too random to stress over checking off each "normal" box as the pole markers are reached.

Oh no, we reached the "normal" active season benchmark by a day!! cancel the season

[Hammy]

I have to admit, I'm a bit surprised we haven't had a hurricane in the MDR yet. We're quickly closing in on September. The vast majority of hyperactive Atlantic seasons have a hurricane in the MDR before the end of August. So far, 2020 hasn't had one. The Atlantic is about to go its third straight year without a MDR hurricane in August, which is somewhat unusual considering how active 2018 and 2019 were (and how active 2020 is expected to be).

Tropical seasons are far too random to stress over checking off each "normal" box as the pole markers are reached.

Oh no, we reached the "normal" active season benchmark by a day!! cancel the season

Accurately pointing declining chances of hyperactivity--determined by ACE--is not season cancel. Only 12% of seasons have gotten there (and requires ACE around 165) and practically all of those either saw a ton of long-tracking major hurricanes, or saw nearly every storm reach hurricane intenstiy--in the last 20 years, only 2003-05, 10, and 17 reached it (still only 25% of years)

The above normal threshhold is anything over 111 and well below what is considered hyperactive, and 120-140 is the most likely range we'll end at.

[BYG Jacob]

Tropical seasons are far too random to stress over checking off each "normal" box as the pole markers are reached.

Oh no, we reached the "normal" active season benchmark by a day!! cancel the season

Accurately pointing declining chances of hyperactivity--determined by ACE--is not season cancel. Only 12% of seasons have gotten there (and requires ACE around 165) and practically all of those either saw a ton of long-tracking major hurricanes, or saw nearly every storm reach hurricane intenstiy--in the last 20 years, only 2003-05, 10, and 17 reached it (still only 25% of years)

The above normal threshhold is anything over 111 and well below what is considered hyperactive, and 120-140 is the most likely range we'll end at.

[NDG]

Once SAL starts settling down next week we should start seeing development well east of the Lesser Antilles and the long track hurricanes start putting up really nice ACE numbers for the Atlantic basin.

[Deshaunrob17]

Oh no, we reached the "normal" active season benchmark by a day!! cancel the season

Accurately pointing declining chances of hyperactivity--determined by ACE--is not season cancel. Only 12% of seasons have gotten there (and requires ACE around 165) and practically all of those either saw a ton of long-tracking major hurricanes, or saw nearly every storm reach hurricane intenstiy--in the last 20 years, only 2003-05, 10, and 17 reached it (still only 25% of years)

The above normal threshhold is anything over 111 and well below what is considered hyperactive, and 120-140 is the most likely range we'll end at.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3AkXJmV0AIY/T_Yj4_zOF7I/AAAAAAAAAJ0/-hReEvLaRiY/s1600/Oh-Wait-Youre-Serious_o_97195.gif

I still think we’ll see about 2 long-tracked/medium tracked Cape Verde hurricanes before September 20th. If so, that's an easy 40-80 Ace there. I don't trust this September one bit and models have been no help....

[Hammy]

Accurately pointing declining chances of hyperactivity--determined by ACE--is not season cancel. Only 12% of seasons have gotten there (and requires ACE around 165) and practically all of those either saw a ton of long-tracking major hurricanes, or saw nearly every storm reach hurricane intenstiy--in the last 20 years, only 2003-05, 10, and 17 reached it (still only 25% of years)

The above normal threshhold is anything over 111 and well below what is considered hyperactive, and 120-140 is the most likely range we'll end at.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3AkXJmV0AIY/T_Yj4_zOF7I/AAAAAAAAAJ0/-hReEvLaRiY/s1600/Oh-Wait-Youre-Serious_o_97195.gif

I still think we’ll see about 2 long-tracked/medium tracked Cape Verde hurricanes before September 20th. If so, that's an easy 40-80 Ace there. I don't trust this September one bit and models have been no help....

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

[toad strangler]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3AkXJmV0AIY/T_Yj4_zOF7I/AAAAAAAAAJ0/-hReEvLaRiY/s1600/Oh-Wait-Youre-Serious_o_97195.gif

I still think we’ll see about 2 long-tracked/medium tracked Cape Verde hurricanes before September 20th. If so, that's an easy 40-80 Ace there. I don't trust this September one bit and models have been no help....

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

We have already had HURRICANES Isaias, Hanna, and then Cat 4 monster Laura landfall in the US. That's a full season right there and then some and it's not even September 1st yet. ACE means absolutely nothing to me. But, I get why it's a relevant season measuring stick.

[aspen]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3AkXJmV0AIY/T_Yj4_zOF7I/AAAAAAAAAJ0/-hReEvLaRiY/s1600/Oh-Wait-Youre-Serious_o_97195.gif

I still think we’ll see about 2 long-tracked/medium tracked Cape Verde hurricanes before September 20th. If so, that's an easy 40-80 Ace there. I don't trust this September one bit and models have been no help....

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

I think 2020 will have a good shot of breaking 165 ACE if we get a long-tracking 40+ ACE major like Jose, Florence, or Dorian, on top of the anticipated high levels of activity in September. Maybe 60-110 ACE for the whole month, which would bring the season total to 90-140. Then there’ll be all of October, which could be active like 2016, 2018, and 2019.

[Hammy]

I still think we’ll see about 2 long-tracked/medium tracked Cape Verde hurricanes before September 20th. If so, that's an easy 40-80 Ace there. I don't trust this September one bit and models have been no help....

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

We have already had HURRICANES Isaias, Hanna, and then Cat 4 monster Laura landfall in the US. That's a full season right there and then some and it's not even September 1st yet. ACE means absolutely nothing to me. But, I get why it's a relevant season measuring stick.

My point was more that the hyperactive term is a one that I've generally seen exclusively used for ACE measurement. It's all but certain we'll run out of names at this point. On an interesting note this year is only the second time after 2005 to have four hurricanes by the end of August, though 2008 and 16 reached four on Sep 1.

[CyclonicFury]

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

We have already had HURRICANES Isaias, Hanna, and then Cat 4 monster Laura landfall in the US. That's a full season right there and then some and it's not even September 1st yet. ACE means absolutely nothing to me. But, I get why it's a relevant season measuring stick.

My point was more that the hyperactive term is a one that I've generally seen exclusively used for ACE measurement. It's all but certain we'll run out of names at this point.

At this point, I think it's fair to be more skeptical of the 200+ ACE forecasts. ACE during August was fairly close to average, and we are still yet to have a hurricane in the MDR or Caribbean. It's not late July or early August anymore, it’ll be September in just two days. ACE is over 40 right now, which is above average through this date, but the Atlantic will start falling behind some hyperactive seasons soon if it does not produce a substantial long track major hurricane soon.

Not season canceling by any means - I think it's more likely than not we reach the Greek alphabet, and there could be several more land threats this season. I also think it's still possible we get a long track MDR hurricane or two during September. The CV season has about four weeks left before it starts to shut down. Ultimately, impacts are more important than the ACE total.

[CyclonicFury]

I still think we’ll see about 2 long-tracked/medium tracked Cape Verde hurricanes before September 20th. If so, that's an easy 40-80 Ace there. I don't trust this September one bit and models have been no help....

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

I think 2020 will have a good shot of breaking 165 ACE if we get a long-tracking 40+ ACE major like Jose, Florence, or Dorian, on top of the anticipated high levels of activity in September. Maybe 60-110 ACE for the whole month, which would bring the season total to 90-140. Then there’ll be all of October, which could be active like 2016, 2018, and 2019.

I would agree about October potentially being more active than average. Conditions in the Caribbean have been much more favorable than normal this season, so I think it's possible we could see a strong storm develop down there in October or even November. Whether the highest ACE forecasts verify will come down to how much the MDR produces in September, which remains a big question at this time.

[toad strangler]

That would put the Atlantic at around 120 by late September and another Michael storm or two would still put it at 145--people underestimate how hard it is to get to 165+ ACE.

I think 2020 will have a good shot of breaking 165 ACE if we get a long-tracking 40+ ACE major like Jose, Florence, or Dorian, on top of the anticipated high levels of activity in September. Maybe 60-110 ACE for the whole month, which would bring the season total to 90-140. Then there’ll be all of October, which could be active like 2016, 2018, and 2019.

I would agree about October potentially being more active than average. Conditions in the Caribbean have been much more favorable than normal this season, so I think it's possible we could see a strong storm develop down there in October or even November. Whether the highest ACE forecasts verify will come down to how much the MDR produces in September, which remains a big question at this time.

I think I'd be more interested in ACE totals if landfall data was considered as a sub statistic. ACE alone doesn't tell a full story just as landfalls don't either.