ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

This board has been rather quiet today. The calm before the storm? Hopefully everyone's preparing instead.

The action's in the models thread. Dorian has been steady-state today intensity-wise so there isn't much to nowcast.

[will759227]

Tampa east aka near wesley chapel. Costco no water or generators. Not that i expected it. I was told down in bradenton, no generators.. Water isn't a big deal yet. I was hoping to get a 3500 watt generator for backup and my laptop/internet at least. But, that seems impossible now.I do see some on amazon still, that say delivery by wednesday, but who knows if they delivering if it comes this way. With the euro shifting east, it may not even be necessary for the tampa bay area.

My dad decided to get me a generator before a storm. I started calling around, but everyone was sold out. An employee I spoke to gave me a lead to a place I would have never expected— AutoZone. Sure enough, they had generators and there was no line or wait. Could be worth a call.

Someone posted here that a place in sarasota will have them tomorrow. I had my dad call, because he is close by.. While their prices are same as home depot. Not sure about driving all the way to sarasota for a generator from north tampa, when i don't know if i can just wait or not!

[Kazmit]

The NHC predicts this will reach cat 2 intensity late tonight/early tomorrow and a major by tomorrow afternoon. It's going to have to start ramping up soon if it wants to do that, but it looks like its EWRC is almost done which should allow for at least some strengthening now.

[Highteeld]

The NHC predicts this will reach cat 2 intensity late tonight/early tomorrow and a major by tomorrow afternoon. It's going to have to start ramping up soon if it wants to do that, but it looks like its EWRC is almost done which should allow for at least some strengthening now.

Eye temp is rapidly warming on IR. Looks like it's done.

[aperson]

Looks like mesovorts have to fight it out for a bit until the new eye stabilizes its shape, but we should start to see one clear out on IR over the next few hours.

Can see it clearing out on visible and IR now


(ref: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined)

[Aric Dunn]

that NW outflow channel is amzaing.. looks like its going to be a little stronger sooner rather than later..

should be influenced more by the upper low ...

[eastcoastFL]

5pm landfall just around Vero Beach

EDIT: Day 4 and 5 points are essentially unchanged.

96 hrs its right off the treasure coast

[aperson]

that NW outflow channel is amzaing.. looks like its going to be a little stronger sooner rather than later..

should be influenced more by the upper low ...

Good setup for short term intensification. Poleward: Huge outflow. Equatorward: Huge moisture pump. TPW may start taking a hit from interaction w/ Hispaniola soon though. I'm envisioning a repeat of yesterday with a real round of RI tomorrow.


(ref: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5)

[tarheelprogrammer]

It appears as though the storm is strengthening again. Eye is becoming better defined on visible and IR presentation looks much better. Stronger, earlier, could mean OTS? Any METS have an opinion on this?

[eastcoastFL]

that NW outflow channel is amzaing.. looks like its going to be a little stronger sooner rather than later..

should be influenced more by the upper low ...

Would you say the EWRC is completed?

[Kazmit]

Just look how much slower the 5 day forecast has gotten between two days ago and now:




It's like it's trying to lengthen its lifespan as much as possible!

[supercane4867]

The eyewall replacement is clearly nearing completion. I think we should see Major Hurricane Dorian by tomorrow morning.

[USTropics]

Taking a step back and viewing the big picture, Dorian is definitely taking on the look of a system that is about to be all systems go:

[Highteeld]

Probably very close or at a Cat 2 right now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dorian hasn't strengthened much but definitely has become better organized. Still a bit on the small side but has dropped the ragged look from this morning and has taken on a curved, spiral shape with increasing outflow.

[jdjaguar]

The NHC predicts this will reach cat 2 intensity late tonight/early tomorrow and a major by tomorrow afternoon. It's going to have to start ramping up soon if it wants to do that, but it looks like its EWRC is almost done which should allow for at least some strengthening now.

One word. Gulfstream.

[gatorcane]

I think when things get real and panic may ensue is when Dorian makes that turn and is heading west towards Florida and gaining strength. You cannot even remotely tell a CAT 4 hurricane could be on our near our doorstep in SE Florida with such calm winds and just the usual summer-time pattern. It has been very still at night lately. I wonder what folks did who lived here before satellites? At least now we known days in advance if not longer.

[wx98]

Just look how much slower the 5 day forecast has gotten between two days ago and now:

https://i.imgur.com/sMDCxTA.png
https://i.imgur.com/Z9OeZMF.png

It's like it's trying to lengthen its lifespan as much as possible!

Despite all the uncertainty around Dorian the NHC has been remarkably consistent with the landfall point. If it verifies somewhere between Melbourne and Port St. Lucie then I’d consider that a huge win for the NHC forecasters. Timing and strength are another issue however...

[tolakram]

Nice evening live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=8685&y=6117

[tolakram]