ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Neither did I Rock lol, it was on Dr. Masters radio show today

Gfs is latching on, but still think it will bury it in the Yucatan on this run, but its a step in the right direction

[KWT]

GFS does weakly develop this, so we do have pretty much all the models doing at least something with 93L, even if its quite weak at least till after the Yucatan.

I think odds on a Yucatan hit is increasing, whether as a wave or a TC remains to be seen.

[Ivanhater]

90 hours...GFS finally catches up to other models. Not focusing to much on intensity right now

[Wx_Warrior]

102

[Ivanhater]

Yep, gfs looses it at 102. Funny how after a couple days it now develops it in the Western Caribbean like the euro and other models, but when others strengthen after that, the gfs wants to lose it, just like before. Seems like gfs is playing catch up in the longer range

[Wx_Warrior]

120

[Ivanhater]

Low keeps jumping around

114

[KWT]

GFS takes it nearly due west and buries it into the Yucatan with no real return out to 120hrs anyway...very interesting and actually a very real possiblity if the weakness isn't as strong as some models expect.

edit-it does emerge again I see...

[Ivanhater]

GFS takes it nearly due west and buries it into the Yucatan with no real return out to 120hrs anyway...very interesting and actually a very real possiblity if the weakness isn't as strong as some models expect.

edit-it does emerge again I see...

Take it frame by frame KWT, it jumps south and north. Not really concerned with the intensity that far out on the gfs, it now develops it in the western caribbean, just took it a few days to catch up with the other models

[Wx_Warrior]

138 FWIW

[KWT]

Gotta admit thats an odd run from the GFS. It makes landfall and then sorta splits the energy left and right, not very realisitic IMO at all!

[ROCK]

misses the weakness and into MX....plausible....man if we just had a true center to track things would be so much clearer.....

Ivan I am staying up for the GFS but your on your own tonight for the EURO...

[Ivanhater]

156

[Wx_Warrior]

I'll be up EURO-ing with Ivan...LOL

[Ivanhater]

Lol rock, I'll be up. Interesting 12z run on the euro

nice warrior, it would be funny if it flips back to a weak system tonight

[KWT]

I guess I'll be taking the 06z shift being in the UK I'll be awake

It is possible Rock, I was saying in the Chat room actually just now its possible this thing could end up burying itself into the Yucatan if the weakness isn't quite strong enough and the system doesn't strengthen enough to catch the weakness.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What's up everyone. Season soon to start. Don't think much will come of 93L. But what do I know. As for the Miami discussion. Not much except for the Nam.
Both
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) also only show a broad low developing along the
wave as it moves into the western Caribbean while the NAM is the
outlier and shows a much more significant system. This had been the
trend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with earlier runs but both have since
backed off on this scenario. Forecast soundings do show however precipitable water
increasing further to well over two inches so this will be a trend
that will need to be closely monitored. But we also have seen these
models back off these higher precipitable water values for this week so nothing to
get excited about just yet.

[Ivanhater]

Hmmmm..the alt version of gfs at 144 hours



168

[HouTXmetro]

Alt version???? what do you mean?

[Ivanhater]

Alt version???? what do you mean?

This runs right along with the other version. Seems like it is calibrated a little differently, but actually keeps 93l on this run with the other models

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml