Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY N OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W AT 00Z AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW N
ATLC. THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG NE WINDS N OF 15N TO
HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IT HAS INCREASED POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z/16 ECMWF WHICH WAS STRONGER WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS...SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH WAS NEAR 30W AT 00Z...WILL WILL STICK
WITH THE A WEAKER FORECAST THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A
1005 MB TROPICAL STORM OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. IT IS A LITTLE WORRISOME THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS
NEARLY AS STRONG AT THAT TIME AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FORECAST.

[jlauderdal]

H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

i believe the ridge is underdone, anglins pier lives to fight another day, system slides south of the peninsula regardless of strength

[CourierPR]

H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

i believe the ridge is underdone, anglins pier lives to fight another day, system slides south of the peninsula regardless of strength

Is that a belief or more of a prayer?

[wxman57]

From 8 AM TWD:.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH WAS NEAR 30W AT 00Z...WILL WILL STICK
WITH THE A WEAKER FORECAST THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A
1005 MB TROPICAL STORM OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. IT IS A LITTLE WORRISOME THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS
NEARLY AS STRONG AT THAT TIME AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FORECAST.

Clearly a typo above, should read "over the eastern Caribbean by Sunday night", not the eastern Gulf. Models have consistently tried to develop systems too far east, thus the predicted recurvature toward the southeast U.S. or out to sea on systems like 93L early on. With no convection, this disturbance is a long ways from developing. It may follow a path similar to 93L and stay south of the current model tracks. Could even move into southern Mexico after crossing the Caribbean unless that ridge over the Gulf breaks down in 10 days or so.

[jlauderdal]

H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

i believe the ridge is underdone, anglins pier lives to fight another day, system slides south of the peninsula regardless of strength

Is that a belief or more of a prayer?

belief, last time i checked prayer never influenced the weather but lets not get into that debate...that is a monster ridge as noted by wxman57 last night, models tend to understate the strength of these monster ridges, we are still way out in time

[Aric Dunn]

I see the model consistency has continued with both the GFS and Euro. very little change at all

[cycloneye]

Let' not cross the line to other subjects not related to the topic on hand,thanks for your cooperation.

[CourierPR]

Bastardi tweets that the GFS is converging on his ideas that the system is headed for Florida and the Southeast.

[cycloneye]

There comes the big wheel.

[SFLcane]

Here's a loop which shows how large the circulation is with this thing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8vis.html

[Vortex]

Classic CV look...Large envelope, rather large storm looks to be a good bet...Im sure NHC is model watching closely and given the consistancy of the GFS and others, I'd imagine tentative plans are being discussed with regards to recon, etc...I think well have an invest by Tomorrow...

[CourierPR]

Here's a loop which shows how large the circulation is with this thing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8vis.html

It's really huge. When it starts to develop more convection, this thing may cause a lot of trouble.

[Bluefrog]

ohhh wow .... great loop ... you can clearly see the overall picture ....

[Aric Dunn]

Classic CV look...Large envelope, rather large storm looks to be a good bet...Im sure NHC is model watching closely and given the consistancy of the GFS and others, I'd imagine tentative plans are being discussed with regards to recon, etc...I think well have an invest by Tomorrow...

will have an invest as soon as there is convection.

[Vortex]

Here's a loop which shows how large the circulation is with this thing.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8vis.html

Great loop....this is certainly one in the making...

[Aric Dunn]

Which by the way I am seeing an increase in some convection today.... first ever with it.. lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[Vortex]

Thats one massive ridge to the N...may even head a bit w/wsw over the next few days...270-275 heading looks reasonable over the next 2-3 days

[Vortex]

Which by the way I am seeing an increase in some convection today.... first ever with it.. lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

noticed that as well aric...

[gatorcane]

This looks like it is going to be a player and will be watching it.

Moisture is surging up from the ITCZ which should help build convection
despite the dry air I see at the mid and upper-levels.

[Vortex]

Strength of Ridging late next week is going to become very important I suspect...


NWS Miami:

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL FINALLY
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND THIS WILL REPLACE S FL IN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW