Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[NDG]

0z Euro IR simulation forecast, at least lots of rains headed for LA.

[SoupBone]

0z Euro IR simulation forecast, at least lots of rains headed for LA.

https://i.imgur.com/Lg1fmVI.gif

Dude, Louisiana does not need rain, at all.

[Aric Dunn]

Wave axis is quite clear north of Honduras.

[Nederlander]

Shear is definitely down ahead of it in the sw Gulf. Just one pocket of 20+ kt in the BoC that looks to be shrinking and moving sw

[wxman57]

Nothing significant indicated on the latest surface plot (ignore my red mouse arrow, though that may not be far from the wave axis). Hopefully, we get some rain out of it in SE TX later this week. Development chances very low.

[SoupBone]

Nothing significant indicated on the latest surface plot (ignore my red mouse arrow, though that may not be far from the wave axis). Hopefully, we get some rain out of it in SE TX later this week. Development chances very low.

http://wxman57.com/images/WCarib.JPG

What specifically is keeping the chances low? Shear dropping, what's impeding it?

[stormlover2013]

wouldn't surprise me we can a depression out of this

[Cpv17]

Nothing significant indicated on the latest surface plot (ignore my red mouse arrow, though that may not be far from the wave axis). Hopefully, we get some rain out of it in SE TX later this week. Development chances very low.

http://wxman57.com/images/WCarib.JPG

I doubt we’ll get much out of this. Maybe the eastern 1/3 of Southeast TX could see a little bit. This looks Louisiana bound once again.

[SoupBone]

Nothing significant indicated on the latest surface plot (ignore my red mouse arrow, though that may not be far from the wave axis). Hopefully, we get some rain out of it in SE TX later this week. Development chances very low.

http://wxman57.com/images/WCarib.JPG

I doubt we’ll get much out of this. Maybe the eastern 1/3 of Southeast TX could see a little bit. This looks Louisiana bound once again.

So Beaumont, East, with maybe a little rain for Houston. This area really needs it right now.

[Nimbus]

Its a broad area of low pressure but if there is going to be a LLC I'm thinking it will be a little further south. Might see a circulation near Belize later.

[SoupBone]

Euro goes back to doing nothing with this thing. What are the ensembles showing?

[Aric Dunn]

One thing im still finding odd is that the wave axis and energy are clearly farther north than the euro keeps showing. It has it hugging the souther BOC then western BOC before turning north and north east. Current trajectory would bring it well inthe north part of the BOC and west central to northern mexico latitude much sooner. Not sure if that will chamge much. But its worth noting.

Though it has slowed down it also looks to be faster. Wave axis crossing the coast of yucatan now. Well north of the models at least the 850mb vorticity. Just have to waitnamd see.

[SoupBone]

Weren't the models showing non-development because of the EPAC system, which is now forecast not to do a whole lot?

[LarryWx]

Is this wave leading to TC genesis at hour 48 on the 12Z Euro in the FL Straits?? If so, that then very weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger. Anyone else see this and, if so, is this from this W Caribbean wave? Regardless, the 12Z Euro has what looks like the start of TC genesis from something at hour 48 that then moves very slowly north and then NE just offshore the east coast.

[Aric Dunn]

And the 12z euro takes this wave inalnd than back diving sw over the ne gulf at end of run. Completely trapped buy big ridge

[Aric Dunn]

Is this wave leading to TC genesis at hour 48 on the 12Z Euro in the FL Straits?? If so, that then very weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger. Anyone else see this and, if so, is this from this W Caribbean wave?

It sure does. Looks like the wave splits especially cuba cuts it in half. Pieces shoot wnw and now as you mentioned take the Ne portion (or a combination of the wave and that energy that was interacting with the upper low or both) and slowly develops it.

[crownweather]

Is this wave leading to TC genesis at hour 48 on the 12Z Euro in the FL Straits?? If so, that then very weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger. Anyone else see this and, if so, is this from this W Caribbean wave? Regardless, the 12Z Euro has what looks like the start of TC genesis from something at hour 48 that then moves very slowly north and then NE just offshore the east coast.

GEFS model shows something very similar with quite a few members showing low pressure in the Florida Straits on Saturday that ends up nearly stalled along the Atlantic SE US coast next week.

Pattern recognition of a large high over the northeast US suggests in close development might be a concern next week.

[jconsor]

Agreed, Rob.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1163896335185174528

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1163898838601654272

[LarryWx]

Is this wave leading to TC genesis at hour 48 on the 12Z Euro in the FL Straits?? If so, that then very weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger. Anyone else see this and, if so, is this from this W Caribbean wave? Regardless, the 12Z Euro has what looks like the start of TC genesis from something at hour 48 that then moves very slowly north and then NE just offshore the east coast.

GEFS model shows something very similar with quite a few members showing low pressure in the Florida Straits on Saturday that ends up nearly stalled along the Atlantic SE US coast next week.

Pattern recognition of a large high over the northeast US suggests in close development might be a concern next week.

And just like that the brand new EPS (12Z) coming out as I type this has ~25% of its 50+ members with sub 1,000 mb pressure and ~12% with sub 992 mb. The prior runs had much less activity then and there. The primary threat landfall threat area per this run would be eastern NC as well as eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. One US landfall is as early as 6 days from now (8/26) in Maine of all places with others as late as ~9/1. Watch out as this may sneak up on us.

Check out the large increase in activity showing up on this for the 1st 10 days of the latest EPS run (goes through 12Z of 8/30 though there's also some activity after this ends)!
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html