2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Nothing that hasn't been said already but here's 2005/2010/2024 compared graphically (Feb 9 because the 10th isn't available on the site:):
https://i.ibb.co/6XFR65Y/ezgif-com-animated-gif-maker-1.gif

Apart from the tropical zones, looks like some of the subtropical areas are warmer in 2024.

[Cpv17]

Nothing that hasn't been said already but here's 2005/2010/2024 compared graphically (Feb 9 because the 10th isn't available on the site:):
https://i.ibb.co/6XFR65Y/ezgif-com-animated-gif-maker-1.gif

Apart from the tropical zones, looks like some of the subtropical areas are warmer in 2024.

I mean, what doesn’t look warmer?

[LemieT]

Something came to mind a while ago that I thought might be worth refreshing. Does anyone remember last year's discussion on how due to the relative temperatures of each basin NATL/EPAC that although the El Nino would be strong, its relative effect would be less since the NATL was so warm? 2023 is now a known commodity and we ended up with a high activity season in the face of a strong El Nino.

Now extrapolate that thought to this year. Suppose we see a warm neutral ENSO at peak season but NATL SSTs are even higher than last year. Would the net effect be as though there is a cool neutral or even weak La Nina in place? Perhaps even if the transition were to fail in some way, we might still have a sort of La Nina effect due to the SST differential.

Just a thought...

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1756645650089816547

[SFLcane]

I see some comparing to 2010 I mean maybe but in my opinion climate models have certainly improved that was almost 15 yrs ago lol. For now this takes us into July in what certainly looks like strong ridging. Still very early but the pieces to the puzzle continue to look very ominous. Having trouble posting jpg or gif images this morning here.

https://i.imgur.com/vPdFmUu.jpeg

[SFLcane]

Very active look!

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1756670356734058877

[cycloneye]

I see some comparing to 2010 I mean maybe but in my opinion climate models have certainly improved that was almost 15 yrs ago lol. For now this takes us into July in what certainly looks like strong ridging. Still very early but the pieces to the puzzle continue to look very ominous. Having trouble posting jpg or gif images this morning here.

https://i.imgur.com/vPdFmUu.jpeg

Hi Adrian. The imgur way.

[Category5Kaiju]

Those screaming precipitation anomalies in the Caribbean are really something. I occasionally have to wonder if this might be the first year since 2007 that we see a bona fide Caribbean cruiser. We haven’t had one for a while, so I’d also have to imagine we are overdue for one

[cycloneye]

Yikes, look at that ridge with the C35 model.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1756670358604661207




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756673909376590331




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756679613462282535

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yikes, look at that ridge with the C35 model.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1756670358604661207

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756673909376590331

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1756679613462282535

Cruiser time? Been a while...

[cycloneye]

UKMET model. 2010 comes up again in the comparisons.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1756645650089816547




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1756645652287603074

[weeniepatrol]

Very very normal stuff here

[SFLcane]

Don't count on much cooling...

 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1757088248268980384

[cycloneye]

All the indicatoirs continue to lead to a very active 2024 season, but is silll early and things can change, but this is what we have as of Febuary 12.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1757087191614783969




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1757089242604302687




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1757091774080635012

[DorkyMcDorkface]

All the indicatoirs continue to lead to a very active 2024 season, but is silll early and things can change, but this is what we have as of Febuary 12.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1757087191614783969

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1757089242604302687

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1757091774080635012

WAM needs to be taken into account as well which would make a case for this look to at least maintain itself during the hurricane season, seeing as it has the ability to naturally relax trades on its own without the aid of -NAO. Back in '07 and even 2010 the WAM phase wasn't as active as it is now.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1757518502435406156

[cycloneye]

Good 4 part X thread about possible analogs to the upcomming 2024 season.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1757590462645354886




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1757590465086472421




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1757590467431031169




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1757590469725356330

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1757606066462785756



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1757739895630508089

[cycloneye]

Look at the 15 day change in North Atlantic and Pacific. El Niño is fading and the sst'as in MDR are cooking real good both at OISST and Coral Reef graphics.

[SFLcane]

Look at the 15 day change in North Atlantic and Pacific. El Niño is fading and the sst'as in MDR are cooking real good both at OISST and Coral Reef graphics.

https://i.imgur.com/ZRfg2Zl.png

https://i.imgur.com/B5EVSpI.png

Yeah not surprised demise has commenced. See ya!