Texas Fall 2024

[CaptinCrunch]

LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/
/Sunday Night Through Late Next Week/

A cold front will be making its way through the region at the start of the long term period Sunday night into Monday. The front will finally bring some relief from the summer-like heat on Monday with most locations seeing high temperatures in the 80s. The main exception will be our southernmost zones where temperatures may warm into the low 90s as cooler air will be slow to arrive behind the front. The effects of this initial cold front will be somewhat brief as temperatures may see a slight rebound on Tuesday. However, there continues to be some uncertainty in the strength of the initial front along with the arrival of a secondary push of cooler air. At this moment, the cooler air looks to back-door into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, which will bring a much more significant cool-down through the second half of the week. The latest NBM data has high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s areawide on Wednesday with morning lows potentially falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night.

Seasonable temperatures are expected to continue
through the remainder of the week with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s and morning lows generally in the 50s. Rain chances will remain near zero throughout the week, but there are some indications a more active period may return as we head into next weekend.

[Ntxw]

Stratton23 there is now some more consistency from the ENS (and glances from the OPs) that North America may cool significantly closer to the end of the month. Aleutian ridging should shift to the GOA which is definitely much better to slow the Pacific flood of mild air.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx yep, combine that with the EPO going negative and the AO trending from positive to more neutral- slightly negative, I think we will see some much chillier weather down the road, just gonna take another 10-14 days for this pattern to set up, but im confident this pacific air is going to get flushed down the toilet lol

[Ntxw]

Until then this coming week will feel more like Fall with comfortable temperatures thanks to the backdoor cold front. Absolutely gorgeous after today’s apex heat.

[Iceresistance]

Stratton23 there is now some more consistency from the ENS (and glances from the OPs) that North America may cool significantly closer to the end of the month. Aleutian ridging should shift to the GOA which is definitely much better to slow the Pacific flood of mild air.

The Pacific air that tends to torch, we saw that a few times before

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance yeah this pacific jet pattern sucks, thankfully a back door front will make it feel much more refreshing next week, EPO going negative last week of october, think thats when we will see much more chilly air invade the US,

[Brent]

Now I see someone sharing a post about warmth for Halloween

I don't think these people have a clue

[starsfan65]

Now I see someone sharing a post about warmth for Halloween

I don't think these people have a clue

who said that?

[Brent]

Now I see someone sharing a post about warmth for Halloween

I don't think these people have a clue

who said that?

Storm chaser on Facebook

I should mention it was 20 degrees last year and the winter was a pathetic joke so...

[Stratton23]

Yeah halloween is up in the air, but given the pattern change expected to occur during the week of october, im leaning towards more normal temps as of right given the uncertainty on the strength and position of the alaskan ridge, and if the PNA cooperates, though a -EPO definitely helps, i definitely dont foresee a very warm halloween though

[Texoz]

100 degrees at Camp Mabry in Austin, October 13th.
New record for the day, and latest day in October to reach 100 degrees. Previous day was October 2nd (1923 and 1938).

Any rain in the forecasts? It's getting concerning how dry it's been over last 2 months.

[Ntxw]

Only 95 at DFW . Waco hit 104F!! End this now.

[Stratton23]

Thats criminally offensive levels of hot

[HockeyTx82]

Yep, I've been out camping since Thursday night and just got home. We were camping off of Lake Bridgeport for a Scout camp at Sid Richardson. I thought I had signed up for summer camp by mistake.

[Throckmorton]

100 degrees at Camp Mabry in Austin, October 13th.
New record for the day, and latest day in October to reach 100 degrees. Previous day was October 2nd (1923 and 1938).

101° was the high. That was the hottest October temperature on record. It also was the latest date on record to have a 100°+ temperature.

So far, this October is tied for the fifth-warmest on record; this autumn is the fourth-warmest and sixth-driest on record; and, this year is tied for the fourth-warmest on record.

[Stratton23]

This heat sucks, fortunately this next front will make it feel very pleasent, last week of october is when we should finally see chillier air take hold over the US , of course operational models are going to struggle with this until we get closer, but EPS, GEFS and GEPS are definitely showing this pacific air getting flushed out by the weekend of halloween or whatever day halloween is on lol

[Brent]

It's definitely a bit chilly up here today. Barely at 70 now. First freeze warning of the year in Northern Oklahoma

Now where is the rain

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, the cooler temps are nice to slow evaporation rates (and it feels better than 101 desert southwest heat), otherwise I could care less about the cooler temps. As mentioned above, the lack of rain around this area since September 5th is concerning.

Anthony Tomasco (local met here) said in a normal September and October, we get about 11" of rain.

Since September 1st, we have measured about 0.37" of rain".


Praying for

[Cpv17]

Yeah, the cooler temps are nice to slow evaporation rates (and it feels better than 101 desert southwest heat), otherwise I could care less about the cooler temps. As mentioned above, the lack of rain around this area since September 5th is concerning.

Anthony Tomasco (local met here) said in a normal September and October, we get about 11" of rain.

Since September 1st, we have measured about 0.37" of rain".


Praying for

I’m with you 100%! Don’t care about the cooler temps either, in fact, I’m perfectly fine with the dry heat. Personally, I think the weather has been pretty nice lately with the lower humidity. It could be about 10 degrees cooler in the afternoons though. Other than that I just want some damn rain. It looks like a desert out here.

[ravyrn]

I'm going to enjoy these cooler temps but I am really looking forward to some rain.