ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

From Thursday night, we will have much more information as the squadron begins the missions so the position of the center / eye will be clear with the planes and of course how strong Erin is. Also the models will be feeded by the data from the gulfstream jet.

[zzzh]

The center actually extends from 16.0N to 15.8N

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/pfbeVTr.png
Disagree with NHC's position estimate. Scatterometer clearly shows that the center is at 16N

Something I just noticed on the Univ of Wisconsin site is that when you look at vorticity from 925 up to 700, it is south of where Erin is indicated to be. Do they get that position from NHC? If they do, it doesn't pan out with where all the vorticity is. That vorticity to the east might be adding an unknown as well.
https://i.imgur.com/RjDM4Ft.gif

From the NHC 11 PM discussion.

Satellite images show that a solid area of convection remains near
Erin, with low-cloud motions suggesting the center is on the
northeastern side of the thunderstorm activity.

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/pfbeVTr.png
Disagree with NHC's position estimate. Scatterometer clearly shows that the center is at 16N.

Comparing this to satellite imagery at the time (2.5 hours ago), it seems to show that Erin was almost perfectly stacked, with the convective towers only slightly west of the LLC or not at all. That's a significant improvement from most of the day, when the naked LLC was north of the convection.

[zzzh]

There is some northeasterly shear, but it shouldn't take too long for the convection to wrap around

[canebeard]

11 pm Discussion:

There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

At least it is QUITE certain that a hurricane will be in the Atlantic Ocean.

[Hurricaneman]

Erin looks like she’s about to intensify pretty soon

[cycloneye]

Same forecast track from the 11 PM advisory is in the 5 AM one.



From the 5 AM discussion.

Erin continues to move westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt.
The storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north,
and the system should gradually turn more west-northwestward later
tonight, with this motion anticipated into the weekend. A weakness
in the ridge is forecast to develop early next week, resulting in a
turn towards the northwest or north-northwest. The guidance is
fairly tightly cluster through day 3, with some slight along-track
spread on the turn toward the northwest. Beyond day 3, the GFS and
Google DeepMind are on the eastern edge of the guidance, and the
hurricane regional models on the western side. The latest NHC
forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the consensus
aids

[Woofde]

Sunrise on Erin as it continues to wrap up. It'll be an interesting day to watch. It's starting to track into the warmer SSTs.

[aspen]

Sunrise on Erin as it continues to wrap up. It'll be an interesting day to watch. It's starting to track into the warmer SSTs.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250814/d1bc8c9c7bc76a0222da37695628b985.jpg

If some of yesterday’s HWRF runs are correct, we should see a significant bout of intensification starting later today or overnight into Friday morning. Sure looks like Erin is gearing up for that now. All of those hot towers going off over the center should help build a good structure for RI.

[Nimbus]

Looks like Erin might have started to gain a little latitude which is comforting for the Caribbean islands.
The high centered over the Georgia coastline needs to shift ENE to allow a weakness on its western flank.

[cycloneye]

Starting this afternoon, we will have more information about the structure of Erin, when NOAA plane departs from Barbados at 4 PM EDT. Later tonight the Air Force plane departs from St Croix at 11:30 PM EDT.

[GCANE]

Now getting some short-duration hot towers

[GCANE]

Continuing to track into an anti-cyclone.

[GCANE]

Getting close to 50W and no sign yet of pulling high TPW air out of the Amazon

[GCANE]

Swept a lot of SAL out behind it, still heavy SAL ahead of it.

[GCANE]

That LL Vort east of Erin has finally detached and weakened quite a bit.
Opens the door now to move due WNW.

[GCANE]

Now getting some short-duration hot towers

Very close to the CoC

[GCANE]

Getting close to 50W and no sign yet of pulling high TPW air out of the Amazon

Forecast to pickup Amazon juice at around 64W

[HurricaneIrma]

What concerns are in place for this thing to stall or the ridge builds back in and starts moving more in a westerly movement?????