NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Scanning the ensemble members tThe faster/further north this forms the more likely for landfall, if it's slower or forms further south the more likely the ots scenarios are.

But..... I think it also might get much closer to Florida.

Majority of the convection is on the south/east on this one, most of Florida won't even notice it going by.

[BobHarlem]

The northerly flow to the west of the system is moving at a fairly good clip, not sure how much it'lll shear it.

[wxman57]

Hurricane chasers may be disappointed with Imelda. Looks like those dropsondes surrounding 94L provided data that indicates a slower forward speed. This will allow for Humberto to pass it to the east on Monday. Once that happens, the northward movement will stop and it'll begin accelerating eastward in the wake of Humberto. This may keep the center 120-150 miles off the coast of South Carolina. Some TS wind could brush the coast. Of course, if the center develops farther to the north or moves more quickly than models are predicting, there could still be a landfall in South Carolina.

Also, since very dry air will be flowing eastward from the Gulf across Florida tomorrow and Monday, Florida will not see much in the way of rain. Maybe some 25 mph northerly wind along the coast.

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

With guidance/the storm itself ticking a little westward in the short term, PTC 9 could take a more favorable path over the warmer and higher TCHP gulfstream waters. That could provide a boost to intensification, depending on how much it can consolidate before the trough shears/dries it out.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think a tropical depression is forming yall.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Logo
Menu
Sep. 27, 2025
13:59 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo

09/27 13:04 | 28 | 1007mb | 27kts (27kts) | --
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:54Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2025
Mission Identifier: Ptc09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 28

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 13:04:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.00N 76.00W
B. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the ENE (71°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,144m (10,315ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 25kts (From the SE at 29mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 27kts (From between the SE and SSE at 31.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (135°) of center fix at 13:02:18Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 40° at 25kts (From the NE at 28.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix at 13:08:03Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 13:02:18Z

[Zonacane]

It looks like the northern end of the wave axis is consolidating into Imelda; I'm not sure how the southern end managed to cling on despite being separated for multiple days.

[blp]

Bingo. ready for lift off.

[skillz305]

Why can’t I stop checking to see how close to Floridas east coast this might get? Been an insane storm to predict with Humberto weighing heavily on the track. From ULL cutting off Florida, to a stall offshore the Carolinas, to a sudden stop and shot East out to sea. How can I not keep checking? I just don’t want any surprises if this storm decides to ride just outside Florida east coast line. And remember! This is 48 hours out or so?! 2025 was so quiet and said hold my beer here’s a jigsaw puzzle.

[Buck]

That’s closed enough for a TD at 11 I’d imagine.

[Zonacane]

Why can’t I stop checking to see how close to Floridas east coast this might get? Been an insane storm to predict with Humberto weighing heavily on the track. From ULL cutting off Florida, to a stall offshore the Carolinas, to a sudden stop and shot East out to sea. How can I not keep checking? I just don’t want any surprises if this storm decides to ride just outside Florida east coast line. And remember! This is 48 hours out or so?! 2025 was so quiet and said hold my beer here’s a jigsaw puzzle.

Because tropical cyclones are the most dangerous storms on Earth, you live in an area prone to getting them and are also vulnerable to them. I have family all over the Florida east coast, and I've been constantly checking on this storm. It is understandable to be concerned, given the uncertainty surrounding this forecast.

[Beef Stew]

Should be enough for the official designation at the next advisory

[GCANE]

Looking at where the vorticity is located, It is a bit east of where the 8am fix is located
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor5.GIF
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

Its elongated in the same direction of a wave.
Land interaction is keeping it from closing off.

[Zonacane]

Looking at where the vorticity is located, It is a bit east of where the 8am fix is located
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor5.GIF
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

Its elongated in the same direction of a wave.
Land interaction is keeping it from closing off.

Morning GCANE, quick question, do you have any idea how the southern end of the wave axis has clung on for the past few days, given that the two halves of the wave were physically separated?

[Hugo1989]

Is still enlongated we'll see

[AnnularCane]

Why can’t I stop checking to see how close to Floridas east coast this might get? Been an insane storm to predict with Humberto weighing heavily on the track. From ULL cutting off Florida, to a stall offshore the Carolinas, to a sudden stop and shot East out to sea. How can I not keep checking? I just don’t want any surprises if this storm decides to ride just outside Florida east coast line. And remember! This is 48 hours out or so?! 2025 was so quiet and said hold my beer here’s a jigsaw puzzle.

All that before she's even born.

[StormWeather]

Is now a Tropical Depression

[ScottNAtlanta]

Why can’t I stop checking to see how close to Floridas east coast this might get? Been an insane storm to predict with Humberto weighing heavily on the track. From ULL cutting off Florida, to a stall offshore the Carolinas, to a sudden stop and shot East out to sea. How can I not keep checking? I just don’t want any surprises if this storm decides to ride just outside Florida east coast line. And remember! This is 48 hours out or so?! 2025 was so quiet and said hold my beer here’s a jigsaw puzzle.

...or going to the NHC site at 10:45 and keep refreshing the page until the 11am comes out

[Zonacane]

Is still enlongated we'll see

Elongated (seriously, how on Earth is the southern end of the wave axis still hanging around??), but there is an actual closed center now.