NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Recon confirms the swirl we saw west of the convection is still the center.

https://i.ibb.co/svxGrgWV/recon-AF308-0513-A-MELISSA.png

That is a poorly defined center as well. With those flight-level winds, I’d say it’s 40-45 mph currently. I think 50 mph is generous.

The 8PM NHC update increased the lowest SLP from 1000 mb to 1002 mb.

[chaser1]

Recon confirms the swirl we saw west of the convection is still the center.

https://i.ibb.co/svxGrgWV/recon-AF308-0513-A-MELISSA.png

That is a poorly defined center as well. With those flight-level winds, I’d say it’s 40-45 mph currently. I think 50 mph is generous.

The 8PM NHC update increased the lowest SLP from 1000 mb to 1002 mb.

We'll probably see another 2-4 MB rise before she gets her act together. If that swirl is/was the LLC then frankly it's not far from becoming ill-defined. Sure, plenty of west winds appear evident but I was beginning to question whether they still existed around a cohesive surface feature or primarily above the surface.

[LarryWx]

That is a poorly defined center as well. With those flight-level winds, I’d say it’s 40-45 mph currently. I think 50 mph is generous.

The 8PM NHC update increased the lowest SLP from 1000 mb to 1002 mb.

We'll probably see another 2-4 MB rise before she gets her act together. If that swirl is/was the LLC then frankly it's not far from becoming ill-defined. Sure, plenty of west winds appear evident but I was beginning to question whether they still existed around a cohesive surface feature or primarily above the surface.

The lowest SLP on record I could find for a center landfalling on Jamaica is 958 mb (MH Charlie of 1951) followed by 960 mb for MH Gilbert. So, the 18Z Euro’s 943 mb would shatter the current record.

Do you or does anyone else know if there has ever been a pressure recorded lower than 958 mb there? If so, when and do you have a link?

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 13, 2025102300, , BEST, 0, 143N, 745W, 45, 1002, TS

[chaser1]

The 8PM NHC update increased the lowest SLP from 1000 mb to 1002 mb.

We'll probably see another 2-4 MB rise before she gets her act together. If that swirl is/was the LLC then frankly it's not far from becoming ill-defined. Sure, plenty of west winds appear evident but I was beginning to question whether they still existed around a cohesive surface feature or primarily above the surface.

The lowest SLP on record I could find for a center landfalling on Jamaica is 958 mb (MH Charlie of 1951) followed by 960 mb for MH Gilbert. So, the 18Z Euro’s 943 mb would shatter the current record.

Do you or does anyone else know if there has ever been a pressure recorded lower than 958 mb there? If so, when and do you have a link?

.

I've not heard any reported SLP below 960mb for Jamaica but had not realized 958mb was recorded during Hurricane Charlie in '51.

[chaser1]

Unless the LLC has once again redeveloped under the convection, then I've got to seriously question whether it still has a well defined surface circulation. I'm sure NHC would prefer to maintain continuity given the expected ramp up in strength a few days from now.

[TomballEd]

Recon and satellite showing a near 2* separation between the LLC and MLC still gives me some hope Melissa poofs. I know that is not the most likely possibility but it would be the happiest.

[Ubuntwo]

Unless the LLC has once again redeveloped under the convection, then I've got to seriously question whether it still has a well defined surface circulation. I'm sure NHC would prefer to maintain continuity given the expected ramp up in strength a few days from now.

While it certainly looks rough on shortwave IR, recon confirms there is still a loose circ at ~ 14.4N, 74.7W.

[WaveBreaking]

All hurricane models show Melissa forming a new LLC under a blob of convection in about a day and then restrengthening btw, so I feel like even though it will probably look dead tomorrow, it'll most likely only be a pulse-down phase (think Gabrielle from earlier this year).

[cycloneye]

Interesting analysis here.

 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1981191686496665956

[cycloneye]

A little promotion post. Those who are interested on participating in the poll about how strong will Melissa get, go to that thread. The poll will close on friday at 11:24 PM EDT.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3143117

[CrazyC83]

Recon and satellite showing a near 2* separation between the LLC and MLC still gives me some hope Melissa poofs. I know that is not the most likely possibility but it would be the happiest.

Models suggest the MLC will become the dominant center eventually?

[CrazyC83]

Unless the LLC has once again redeveloped under the convection, then I've got to seriously question whether it still has a well defined surface circulation. I'm sure NHC would prefer to maintain continuity given the expected ramp up in strength a few days from now.

I think NHC would keep advisories going, and in the post-analysis consider a non-TC phase (i.e., wave, disturbance).

[AxaltaRacing24]

Was looking at Melissa and struggling to even seek out a well defined LLC, and I see that people here were saying the same. It probably will open up into a wave briefly a few times but we all know what is eventually going to happen.

[CrazyC83]

Was looking at Melissa and struggling to even seek out a well defined LLC, and I see that people here were saying the same. It probably will open up into a wave briefly a few times but we all know what is eventually going to happen.

Gabrielle behaved similarly at first, and in fact I would argue it had a broken track (and a period of remnant low stage) before it took off.

[Ubuntwo]

Was looking at Melissa and struggling to even seek out a well defined LLC, and I see that people here were saying the same. It probably will open up into a wave briefly a few times but we all know what is eventually going to happen.

I don't think we know anything about this storm's fate The intense solutions are far from a lock.

[chaser1]

Would someone else kindly take a brief look at the night-time Shortwave IR floater for Melissa, and focus in around 16.0N & 76.5W? Call me crazy but if that's Melissa's LLC, then this completely redefines the definition of "tilted center"

[CrazyC83]

Would someone else kindly take a brief look at the night-time Shortwave IR floater for Melissa, and focus in around 16.0N & 76.5W? Call me crazy but if that's Melissa's LLC, then this completely redefines the definition of "tilted center"

It is clearly tilted greatly. That does seem to be at least a remnant LLC, if not still the actual LLC.

[chaser1]

CODE BLUE!

UNIDENTIFIED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOUND FLAILING & UNCONSCIOUS. NO VISUAL CIRCULATION DETECTED.
TROPICAL DEFIBRILLATOR REQUIRED - STAT