Extratropical Irene Advisories
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 130901
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 04Z... AND THE COLDEST
CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN LESS THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTH
OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION... AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
69 KT WITHIN IT... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... 997 MB. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE
UNANIMOUSLY 3.5/55 KT. WHILE THERE ARE NO HARD NUMBERS TO SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT... I WILL DO SO BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS
STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT
320/9. IRENE IS BEING STEERED AROUND A NEARBY DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. DATA FROM LAST NIGHT'S SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE LED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO EITHER THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OR THE FORECASTS FROM THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT IRENE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ADJUSTMENT AND TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND
IN THE MODEL TRACKS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
IT IS ALSO FASTER SINCE IRENE IS GAINING LATITUDE MORE QUICKLY NOW
AND WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AND BEGIN ACCELERATING ON DAY 4... AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE
MODELS EXCEPT THE LEFT-OUTLYING GFDN.
SINCE IRENE IS STILL ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD
DO SO AT ANY TIME. THE SHIPS PEAKS AT 63 KT IN 72 HOURS... WHILE
THE GFDL PEAKS NEAR 80 KT AROUND THAT SAME TIME. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH SHIPS. SINCE
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER... IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
COOLER WATERS SOONER... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST... IN ACCORDANCE WITH BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 30.1N 68.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 69.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.6N 69.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.2N 69.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 36.0N 69.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 38.0N 66.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 39.5N 62.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 41.5N 54.0W 60 KT
WTNT44 KNHC 130901
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 04Z... AND THE COLDEST
CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN LESS THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTH
OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION... AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
69 KT WITHIN IT... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE A BIT HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... 997 MB. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE
UNANIMOUSLY 3.5/55 KT. WHILE THERE ARE NO HARD NUMBERS TO SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT... I WILL DO SO BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS
STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT
320/9. IRENE IS BEING STEERED AROUND A NEARBY DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. DATA FROM LAST NIGHT'S SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE LED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO EITHER THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OR THE FORECASTS FROM THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT IRENE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ADJUSTMENT AND TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND
IN THE MODEL TRACKS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
IT IS ALSO FASTER SINCE IRENE IS GAINING LATITUDE MORE QUICKLY NOW
AND WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AND BEGIN ACCELERATING ON DAY 4... AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE
MODELS EXCEPT THE LEFT-OUTLYING GFDN.
SINCE IRENE IS STILL ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD
DO SO AT ANY TIME. THE SHIPS PEAKS AT 63 KT IN 72 HOURS... WHILE
THE GFDL PEAKS NEAR 80 KT AROUND THAT SAME TIME. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH SHIPS. SINCE
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER... IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
COOLER WATERS SOONER... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST... IN ACCORDANCE WITH BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 30.1N 68.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 69.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.6N 69.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.2N 69.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 36.0N 69.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 38.0N 66.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 39.5N 62.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 41.5N 54.0W 60 KT
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 131440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTED
OF A BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW
PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. SINCE THEN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES
SHOW A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...IRENE HAS
BEEN A PECULIAR CYCLONE THAT HAS NEVER HAD A PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC
CLOUD PATTERN. THE INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT 60 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS
IRENE LATER TODAY. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO SURPRISES. SHIPS
MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT
BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE...SHIPS IS NOT
SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE SAME GOES FOR THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT
SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS UNTIL IRENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES...PROBABLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BUT IT IS ONLY AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.7N 69.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.8N 70.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 69.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 68.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 39.6N 64.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1200Z 45.1N 49.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
WTNT44 KNHC 131440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTED
OF A BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW
PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. SINCE THEN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES
SHOW A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...IRENE HAS
BEEN A PECULIAR CYCLONE THAT HAS NEVER HAD A PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC
CLOUD PATTERN. THE INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT 60 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS
IRENE LATER TODAY. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO SURPRISES. SHIPS
MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT
BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE...SHIPS IS NOT
SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE SAME GOES FOR THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT
SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS UNTIL IRENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES...PROBABLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BUT IT IS ONLY AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.7N 69.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.8N 70.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 69.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 68.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 39.6N 64.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1200Z 45.1N 49.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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gkrangers
813
WTNT34 KNHC 132020
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005
...IRENE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON...POSES NO THREAT TO
LAND...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES... 460 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD BRING IRENE
TO HURRICANE STATUS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
WTNT34 KNHC 132020
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005
...IRENE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON...POSES NO THREAT TO
LAND...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES... 460 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD BRING IRENE
TO HURRICANE STATUS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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gkrangers
679
WTNT44 KNHC 132022
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IRENE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN A STEADY AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN DURING ITS LIFETIME.
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED BUT REMAINS VERY VIGOROUS. IN
FACT...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 70 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 999 MB SINCE 1500 UTC. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AND...ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM AND
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 31.2N 69.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 70.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 40.5N 60.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 132022
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IRENE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN A STEADY AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN DURING ITS LIFETIME.
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED BUT REMAINS VERY VIGOROUS. IN
FACT...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 70 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 999 MB SINCE 1500 UTC. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AND...ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM AND
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 31.2N 69.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 70.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 40.5N 60.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
725
WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
IRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
WITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI
OVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE
NORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...
SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.
IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE NEXT RECON
FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 96
HOURS. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE BY MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES THAT LIE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC. BY 96 HOURS...A DEEP-LAYER
MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
THE THEN EXTRATROPICAL IRENE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND THEN
FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AFTER THAT.
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE SSMI IMAGERY
AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...IRENE COULD BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES ONTO AND NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS
WHERE THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED AND REDUCE THE
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 32.0N 69.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 35.6N 69.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 37.4N 67.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 38.7N 64.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 41.0N 58.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/0000Z 55.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005
IRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
WITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI
OVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE
NORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...
SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.
IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE NEXT RECON
FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 96
HOURS. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE BY MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES THAT LIE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC. BY 96 HOURS...A DEEP-LAYER
MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
THE THEN EXTRATROPICAL IRENE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND THEN
FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AFTER THAT.
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE SSMI IMAGERY
AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...IRENE COULD BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES ONTO AND NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS
WHERE THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED AND REDUCE THE
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 32.0N 69.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 35.6N 69.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 37.4N 67.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 38.7N 64.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 41.0N 58.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/0000Z 55.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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-
James
- Category 5
- Posts: 1531
- Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2004 10:29 am
- Location: Gloucestershire, England
- Contact:
602
WTNT34 KNHC 140837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
...IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES... 515 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 350 MILES... 560
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY... WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
ON THIS TRACK... IRENE WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS BUT
WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SHIPPING INTERESTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.6 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT34 KNHC 140837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
...IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES... 515 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 350 MILES... 560
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY... WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
ON THIS TRACK... IRENE WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS BUT
WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SHIPPING INTERESTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.6 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER KNABB
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-
Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
FritzPaul wrote:Well, once again a storm teases us by peaking out at 70 mph.
It sure would be strange: if after TD10 is said and done, the storm count
would be: 10 - 2 - 2!
<Paul>
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
That doesn't make me think that every storm is going to fail to become a hurricane. Quite the contrary, I think it means when things get more favorable, we're gonna have maybe several major hurricanes in a row. Maybe if Jose were to develop from TD #10, it could by an outside chance fail, but I wonder if our numbers in a few weeks might be:
15/7/4
If you think I'm crazy for calling for 5 hurricanes in a row, look back to 2001. The first FOUR failed to become TS's, but three of them had winds at 70 mph. Then conditions got more favorable, and five storms in a row became hurricanes, three of which were major. I am calling for two major hurricanes if this streak comes, being conservative, but there may be a third in there.
We'll just have to wait and see.
-Andrew92
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-
wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Irene Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 14, 2005
...Irene moving north-northeastward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of tropical storm Irene was
located near latitude 33.6 north... longitude 69.9 west or about
310 miles... 495 km... west-northwest of Bermuda and about 340
miles... 545 km...east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Irene is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and a gradual turn toward the northeast is expected
over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.6 N... 69.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 14, 2005
...Irene moving north-northeastward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of tropical storm Irene was
located near latitude 33.6 north... longitude 69.9 west or about
310 miles... 495 km... west-northwest of Bermuda and about 340
miles... 545 km...east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Irene is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and a gradual turn toward the northeast is expected
over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...33.6 N... 69.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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-
wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 40
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 14, 2005
Irene is exhibiting a fairly impressive cloud pattern with
well-defined banding features over the southern semicircle.
Upper-level outflow appears strong to the southeast through
southwest. Measurement of the banding using the Dvorak technique
easily supports a current intensity of 55 kt. The environment...in
terms of vertical shear and sea surface temperatures...should not
inhibit strengthening within the next 24 hours. However beyond
that time vertical shear is forecast to increase rapidly as the
storm moves into the westerlies. Therefore Irene has a small
window of opportunity for strengthening. One more aerial
reconnaissance mission into Irene is scheduled for 18z today to
check the position and intensity.
Latest center fixes indicate that the heading has bent a little to
the right and current motion estimate is now north-northeastward...
020/10. Irene has crossed the axis of the subtropical ridge and
begun recurvature into the westerlies. Track guidance is generally
a little slower and slightly left of that from the previous
advisory...but only small adjustments are made to the official
forecast track.
By 3 days the cyclone is likely to be losing tropical
characteristics...and by the end of the forecast period the
extratropical version of Irene should merge with a larger
baroclinic system.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/1500z 33.6n 69.9w 55 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 35.1n 69.2w 60 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 37.0n 67.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 38.6n 64.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 39.7n 61.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 42.5n 54.0w 50 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 18/1200z 49.5n 43.5w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 19/1200z...absorbed
$$
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 14, 2005
Irene is exhibiting a fairly impressive cloud pattern with
well-defined banding features over the southern semicircle.
Upper-level outflow appears strong to the southeast through
southwest. Measurement of the banding using the Dvorak technique
easily supports a current intensity of 55 kt. The environment...in
terms of vertical shear and sea surface temperatures...should not
inhibit strengthening within the next 24 hours. However beyond
that time vertical shear is forecast to increase rapidly as the
storm moves into the westerlies. Therefore Irene has a small
window of opportunity for strengthening. One more aerial
reconnaissance mission into Irene is scheduled for 18z today to
check the position and intensity.
Latest center fixes indicate that the heading has bent a little to
the right and current motion estimate is now north-northeastward...
020/10. Irene has crossed the axis of the subtropical ridge and
begun recurvature into the westerlies. Track guidance is generally
a little slower and slightly left of that from the previous
advisory...but only small adjustments are made to the official
forecast track.
By 3 days the cyclone is likely to be losing tropical
characteristics...and by the end of the forecast period the
extratropical version of Irene should merge with a larger
baroclinic system.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/1500z 33.6n 69.9w 55 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 35.1n 69.2w 60 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 37.0n 67.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 38.6n 64.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 39.7n 61.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 42.5n 54.0w 50 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 18/1200z 49.5n 43.5w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 19/1200z...absorbed
$$
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-
wxwatcher91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1606
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Keene, NH
- Contact:
-
gkrangers
NO CANE FOR YOU!
205
WTNT44 KNHC 142032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005
THERE WERE 2 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INVESTIGATING IRENE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED
TO 992 MB AND THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 72 KNOTS.
THESE DATA INDICATE THAT IRENE IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS THE BEST ORGANIZED IT HAS
EVER BEEN...WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHEAST. SINCE IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT MAY VERY WELL BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
NO CHANGE IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...020/10. IRENE HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WESTERLIES. SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS
AS A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SOME OF
THE MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND
THERE HAS PROBABLY CAUSED SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE
TRACK MODELS...AND CONTINUITY. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.5N 69.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 35.7N 68.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 37.1N 66.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 38.4N 64.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 39.5N 61.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/1800Z 52.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
205
WTNT44 KNHC 142032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005
THERE WERE 2 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INVESTIGATING IRENE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED
TO 992 MB AND THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 72 KNOTS.
THESE DATA INDICATE THAT IRENE IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS THE BEST ORGANIZED IT HAS
EVER BEEN...WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHEAST. SINCE IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT MAY VERY WELL BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
NO CHANGE IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...020/10. IRENE HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WESTERLIES. SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS
AS A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SOME OF
THE MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND
THERE HAS PROBABLY CAUSED SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE
TRACK MODELS...AND CONTINUITY. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.5N 69.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 35.7N 68.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 37.1N 66.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 38.4N 64.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 39.5N 61.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/1800Z 52.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
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-
johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 2072
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
Now a hurricane...
HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.
BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.
BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
I have an award for Irene, and this is unlikely to go to any other storm.
I hereby grant Hurricane Irene with the "I Think I Can! I Think I Can....I DID IT! Hurricane" Award for 2005.
Struggled all her life just to develop for the most part, and then when she got going, she had trouble intensifying. Finally it's all come together because she believed in herself.
Thankfully, she'll be a fish.
-Andrew92
I hereby grant Hurricane Irene with the "I Think I Can! I Think I Can....I DID IT! Hurricane" Award for 2005.
Struggled all her life just to develop for the most part, and then when she got going, she had trouble intensifying. Finally it's all come together because she believed in herself.
Thankfully, she'll be a fish.
-Andrew92
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