98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Huckster]

Opal, wow, yes, how could I have forgotten that! I was in peninsula mode. Sorry for y'all in the panhandle. I didn't mean to exclude you

[cycloneye]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.


5:30 AM TWO.

[OURAGAN]

This system will crash on the central america

[OURAGAN]

This system will crash on the central america

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.7N 75.9W





VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.10.2005 18.7N 75.9W WEAK

12UTC 15.10.2005 19.0N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.10.2005 18.6N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.10.2005 17.7N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.10.2005 16.8N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 80.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 81.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 81.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.10.2005 18.5N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 84.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.10.2005 20.2N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



00z UKMET

[Nimbus]

Luis is this a shift to the right in track for the UKMET?

I don't mind if they let the recon pilots sleep in this morning. The longer we wait for this storm to develop the better the initialization will be.

[cycloneye]

Luis is this a shift to the right in track for the UKMET?

I don't mind if they let the recon pilots sleep in this morning. The longer we wait for this storm to develop the better the initialization will be.

Yep to the right at the end.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NOT-WELL DEFINED SURFACE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS
OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 15.5N TO 20N
BETWEEN 74W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 81W....FROM HAITI TO
CUBA TO JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...THROUGH THE 1005 MB LOW CENTER...TO EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND THROUGH NICARAGUA TO EASTERN EL SALVADOR.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND RESIDENTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS CLOSELY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.



8 AM EDT Special Feature Discussion.

[Anonymous]

I may be wrong, but to me...conditions are appearing to me as almost ideal for the future of this system:::

[Lowpressure]

I agree Floydbuster, looks like a low shear warm water path probably a Florida panhandle or Alabama event. What are they missing for a TD? 1005 is plenty low, must be that elusive west wind.

[cycloneye]

I agree Floydbuster, looks like a low shear warm water path probably a Florida panhandle or Alabama event. What are they missing for a TD? 1005 is plenty low, must be that elusive west wind.

They may be waiting for recon later today.

[Anonymous]

I would think a track like this as of now IMO:::

[TampaFl]

Latest GFDL run @ 10-15-05 00Z has it a Cat 5 hurricane in 126hours!! Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.7 77.4 270./ 2.9
6 17.7 77.5 307./ .9
12 18.0 78.1 291./ 6.4
18 18.3 78.7 300./ 6.0
24 18.4 79.3 286./ 5.8
30 18.5 79.6 278./ 2.8
36 18.5 79.9 275./ 3.1
42 18.4 79.8 148./ 1.3
48 18.2 79.9 198./ 2.2
54 18.2 79.9 180./ .0
60 18.2 80.0 283./ 1.3
66 18.1 80.1 228./ 1.3
72 17.9 80.4 227./ 3.6
78 17.6 80.7 225./ 4.0
84 17.4 80.8 217./ 2.6
90 17.0 80.9 187./ 4.1
96 16.8 81.0 210./ 1.6
102 16.8 81.1 261./ 1.2
108 16.9 81.1 342./ 1.3
114 17.0 81.1 27./ .9
120 17.1 81.2 338./ 1.6
126 17.8 81.5 334./ 7.4


6z GFDL.

[TampaFl]

The Euro model run brings it into the East Central Gulf by Oct. 21st.

Robert


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

[Amanzi]

NO NO NOOOOO Cat 5's. I refuse to even let that enter my mind!

[TampaFl]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)






0 17.7 77.4 270./ 2.9
6 17.7 77.5 307./ .9
12 18.0 78.1 291./ 6.4
18 18.3 78.7 300./ 6.0
24 18.4 79.3 286./ 5.8
30 18.5 79.6 278./ 2.8
36 18.5 79.9 275./ 3.1
42 18.4 79.8 148./ 1.3
48 18.2 79.9 198./ 2.2
54 18.2 79.9 180./ .0
60 18.2 80.0 283./ 1.3
66 18.1 80.1 228./ 1.3
72 17.9 80.4 227./ 3.6
78 17.6 80.7 225./ 4.0
84 17.4 80.8 217./ 2.6
90 17.0 80.9 187./ 4.1
96 16.8 81.0 210./ 1.6
102 16.8 81.1 261./ 1.2
108 16.9 81.1 342./ 1.3
114 17.0 81.1 27./ .9
120 17.1 81.2 338./ 1.6
126 17.8 81.5 334./ 7.4


6z GFDL.

Thanks Cycloneye for the 6z GFDL run. Looks like this "might " head into the East Gulf later this week. Just have to wait and see - we have alot of time to watch this. Thanks

Robert

[TampaFl]

[cjrciadt]

Latest GFDL run @ 10-15-05 00Z has it a Cat 5 hurricane in 126hours!! Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Anonymous]

06Z GFDL much weaker...but still making it a dangerous Major Category 3 by 126 hours...and I would think it would continue to ramp it up at 138 hrs...as well as 144 hrs.