Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[coriolis]

Would you guys mind not putting that over me?

[jkt21787]

NOT the worst hurricane in history, maybe not even the worst hurricane for the Northeast/New England. BUT it WOULD be a historic storm for New England rank up there for that region in specific.

Also if GFS is right with this storm, this DOES NOT happen. Wilma will have to go further north to West Central FL. A Keys hit or further south would prevent this from happening and the phasing to take place.

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the 12z NOGAPS and UKMET?

[El Nino]

And ECM is very accurate these times ...

[DESTRUCTION5]

0z... sorry.

It's been showing it for several runs now.

Perfect Storm?

[stormandan28]

For what its worth here is JB track on his midday post.

TUESDAY MIDDAY: POSITION AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR WILMA.
Wow, anyone check out the 6z wave watch for mid atlantic states. Interesting stuff.

7pm Tuesday 16..5 81.5 965 mb / 7pm wed 18.0,84.5 945 mb / 7am thur 20.5, 85.0 930 mb/ 7pm fri 23.0 85.0 930 mb / 7pm sat 26.0 84.0 940mb / 7pm sunday 28,0 82.0 965 mb/ 7pm mon 36.0 72.0 965 mb

[Trader Ron]

FWIW... the 0z ECMWF is showing Wilma phasing with the trough and a massive storm for the Northeast.

Wouldn't the trough push Wilma North and East out to sea?

[inotherwords]

I just posted in the Tropical Analysis, but in case I don't get an answer I thought I'd ask here:
I have two questions: How far inland does storm surge go? I live on a river that flows into charlotte harbor but I'm probably 7miles up river, if the storm was cat 3 or more and came in to the north of us, would storm surge affect us.
2. A hurricane is tropical moisture and if I understand correctly, its a cold front that is going to pick it up, will the clash of cold front and tropical cause worse or more tornado activity with this storm?

I have an answer to question 1 because I just had to research this myself. Go to the Charlotte County Emergency Management website and see if there's a resource like this that allows you to type in your address. It will tell you what your evacuation zone is, which is based on expected storm surge. I had trouble finding out my zone because in my area, there are zones 1, 2, and 3 so very close to each other. I also am on an peninsula between two creeks so my situation was similar to yours in that I had to take that body of water into consideraton.

I hope Charlotte county has a site like this. I tried finding mine through the general county site and had no luck, it was only when I googled Sarasota Emergency Management that I found this. Good luck and let's hope we're both spared this time.

http://mapserver1.co.sarasota.fl.us/Eva ... formation/

[Ivanhater]

Anyone has the 12z NOGAPS and UKMET?

nogaps is not complete, this is the latest image of the 12z nogaps

[DESTRUCTION5]

For what its worth here is JB track on his midday post.

TUESDAY MIDDAY: POSITION AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR WILMA.
Wow, anyone check out the 6z wave watch for mid atlantic states. Interesting stuff.

7pm Tuesday 16..5 81.5 965 mb / 7pm wed 18.0,84.5 945 mb / 7am thur 20.5, 85.0 930 mb/ 7pm fri 23.0 85.0 930 mb / 7pm sat 26.0 84.0 940mb / 7pm sunday 28,0 82.0 965 mb/ 7pm mon 36.0 72.0 965 mb

He has a NNE track? Out around Daytona?

[jkt21787]

FWIW... the 0z ECMWF is showing Wilma phasing with the trough and a massive storm for the Northeast.

Wouldn't the trough push Wilma North and East out to sea?

No, the storm, if it moves far enough north, it could phase (combine forces in a sense) and lead to one massive storm. Think about the Superstorm in March 1993, but this would be a hurricane type scenario.

The chances of this happening are still VERY SMALL. Don't want to seem like an alarmist of hype-mongerer.

[Brent]

FWIW... the 0z ECMWF is showing Wilma phasing with the trough and a massive storm for the Northeast.

Wouldn't the trough push Wilma North and East out to sea?

I'm not sure. If it phases with the trough then there's going to be a problem, even if the actual hurricane(or whatever it is at that point) is well offshore.

[Weatherboy1]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

Still just NW of W tip of Cuba at 84 hours at this NOGAPS site, which seems to be the quickest. Have to see what happens by the end of the run, but who knows? There is the possibility the GFS is right and this thing hooks ENE sooner than expected, and through the FL straits. Stranger things have happened this time of year. I figure by tomorrow evening, we'll have a much better idea about the final landfall point.

[Trader Ron]

FWIW... the 0z ECMWF is showing Wilma phasing with the trough and a massive storm for the Northeast.

Wouldn't the trough push Wilma North and East out to sea?

No, the storm, if it moves far enough north, it could phase (combine forces in a sense) and lead to one massive storm. Think about the Superstorm in March 1993, but this would be a hurricane type scenario.

The chances of this happening are still VERY SMALL. Don't want to seem like an alarmist of hype-mongerer.

I was thinking of the 1993 storm. It could happen. We'll see.

[El Nino]

Quite interesting this possibility of a cat4 storm around 48-72h. But in the table of probabilities, cat4-5 has lowered from to 25 to 20.

One question : if it goes through the Fl straights, wouldn't it keep her strengh ?

[Brent]

One question : if it goes through the Fl straights, wouldn't it keep her strengh ?

It would probably still weaken due to shear... maybe not as significantly, but more gradually.

[Blown Away]

If this track holds, Wilma will go rate over Marco Island and exit near Jupiter. I'm assuming most of the energy will be on the east side due to the interaction w/ the trough. Marco Island, Goodland, Everglades City would be on the east side, all these areas are extremely low. As it moves across the state the gators and sugar cane will take a beating for a couple of hours, then the east side will sweep through N Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Stuart. If my math is close, including the bend in the path, Marco is about 700 miles from the 11am position. Just thought somebody needed to clear up the geography.

[StormFury]

Look at this impressive picture!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[cinlfla]

This is the cmc model don't really know how good it is will tropical systems but thought it might be worth taking a look at.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005101812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[El Nino]

I think Jamaica is facing torrential rains since a lot of time now !