Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

[CrazyC83]

11 tornadoes in the past few hours in the Midwest!

[Brent]

* THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. A LARGE TORNADO FLATTENED HOMES
AND INJURED PEOPLE NEAR SAINT MARYS AS THIS STORM MOVED ACROSS
NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
ARE ANYWHERE NEAR THE COMMUNITIES OF WILLISVILLE...CUTLER...
JAMESTOWN OR SWANWICK...AS YOU ARE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF THIS
TORNADO!

[CrazyC83]

WOW!!! This sure is serious!!!

[wx247]

Tornado warning here earlier... some pea sized hail, but nothing too serious in my immediate area. Much of Branson is without power tonight, and a tornado apparently touched down near Rolla this evening as well. Tomorrow looks even worse.

[Brent]

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

* AT 1108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADIC STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DEADLY TORNADOS
14 MILES WEST OF DAHLGREN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

* UNTIL 1230 AM CST.

* AT 1123 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADIC STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOST PART OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY NEAR BELLE RIVE. ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM WAS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST...LOCATED IN THE WALTONVILLE AREA. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST
AT ABOUT 50 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

Right now I am just waiting for more information to become available.

[CrazyC83]

Let's pray for everyone in the path of these tornadoes.

This is going to be a long night!

If you want to help out, I'm also at Wikipedia - Article: March 2006 Tornado Outbreak Sequence.

[Brent]

DAY 1 HIGH RISK!!!!



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL
IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM AR NWD TO SRN IA
AND EWD INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX TO THE
MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET...
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL TRACK
NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. 60-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH AS IT TRACKS NEWD WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SSWLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING /60-80 KT/ OF THIS
LLJ IS EXPECTED SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT VEERS TO SWLY
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND
FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO OK...AND THEN
WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD
AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
TRANSLATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN KS REACHING FAR NRN
MO BY 00Z...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF
IL/IN/OH. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE ACROSS FAR
ERN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO NERN TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD ZONE OF RICH MOISTURE
RETURN...ALREADY UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD
TODAY FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS/OH
RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS SERN MO/PARTS OF SRN IL...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD TO WRN PA.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A LEAD SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. WITH INSOLATION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON NOSE OF RETURNING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG IN SURFACE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY LIKELY
BEING DISCRETE FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE. STRONG
LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS CENTRAL/ NRN MO INTO SERN IA AND
WRN/CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS
EVENING SPREADING EWD FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATER THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO IND/WRN KY.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/12/2006

!!!!

[CrazyC83]

Tomorrow will be a long day!!! All we can do is pray right now!!!

[therock1811]

That's what I am doing. I am so close to the moderate risk zone I may as well be in it. This is not looking good for me.

[CrazyC83]

At least 2 people reported dead in St. Mary, Missouri area. Homes reported to have been flattened (sounds like at least an F4, possibly the first F5 since 1999???)

[wxmann_91]

At least 2 people reported dead in St. Mary, Missouri area. Homes reported to have been flattened (sounds like at least an F4, possibly the first F5 since 1999???)

The media tends to exaggerate things (remember Katrina?) so don't make assumptions yet. We'll see in the morning.

[Beam]

And I'm in Macon, MO... right in the bull's eye. Isn't that dandy?

[WaitingForSiren]

The thing that amazes me with this storm is that heavy snow will bury me in MN, but just south in iowa there is a HIGH risk of Tornadoes and huge Hail. Thats pretty amazing. And Im in southern MN, too.

[snoopj]

Behold, for I am in the bullseye....yet again!

Grabbing the ol' NOAA radio and keeping it next to me.

Got some storms to the west of the KC metro area (in E KS) that seem to be dropping for big hail this morning. I'm seeing some radar estimated 3" diameter already this morning. Those will hurt. Heh.

Such an ominous sign to the day. It seems to peaceful outside right now, with the sun coming up.

--snoopj

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya, man... on this link to your radar on wunderground, It shows the strongest cell coming pretty close to KC

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999

[snoopj]

Yeah. I use GRLevel3....it's calling that D0 cell B0. It's track may take it over the KC International Airport (about 15 miles to the NNW of my location). It's still estimating severe hail at about 2.75".

--snoopj

[snoopj]

We've barely started the daytime heating and already we got 3" estimated hail stones falling from the sky. Long day? Looking like it....

--snoopj

[6SpeedTA95]

We're gonna miss the rain again according to NOAA...hte good news is storms are firing in kansas to our north and west so if those can fill into the south we'll get some rain/svr weather otherwise I'll just have ti sitback and watch everyone else get rained on

[snoopj]

Tornado reported in Lawrence on that storm.

According to my update from GRLevel3, I've got 3 TVS's from that cell.

--snoopj