Models show more active Atlantic

[ThunderMate]

Figures, they are probably deciding what they are going to say about our wave.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm going to be critical of S2K at this point, and say that comments like Jeff's should not be allowed to be posted here, since they are only his comments as a private meteorologist - but appear to be from an official NOAA product.

This can easily be misinterpreted by the lurking financial speculators on this site, and, though some might not believe this, can lead to an increase in the price of gas and oil.

S2K, please monitor these unofficial weather products (or at least put a disclaimer above statement's like Jeff's), since this site is viewed by many hundreds, if not several thousand, viewers each day - including those who lurk here for financial gain only.

Frank

Frank:
The quote is clearing attributed to Jeff Masters isn't it?
If it was not identified specifically as being by Jeff Masters it would be plagerizing and "out of bounds" but what is wrong with quoting a "so called expert" from a respected web site?

Jeff Probably uses this site himself!

[bvigal]

Figures, they are probably deciding what they are going to say about our wave.

Yes, I can understand it will have to be worded very carefully. Also there's 93L to update. Maybe won't even mention this new wave. Looks pretty on visible right now.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Nothing about it!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
STILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

[ThunderMate]

I give up....

[bvigal]

hmmm. 12z surface is out, no wave drawn on the map!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[bvigal]

animation
Here's a global animation from GHCC showing the wave (or whatever it is) coming off Africa.

[ThunderMate]

Well, now we have the 12z GFS to wait for....i can understand why they didn't mention it but do you think they will mention it at 5:30 is models still show it and if it still looks good?

[Meso]

12z GFS has started

[Gulfer]

SouthFloridawx lets hope that does not happen - that would be the doomsday scenario we all hope never happens.

I'm missing something probably from a prior post.
What is the "doomsday scenario" you are referring to?

What I see is this model shows a strong storm passing off the Outer Banks and staying offshore the NE coast.
Like a whole lot of storms before this.

Did I miss something in my looking at the model?

It's called internet weather forum hyperbole.....and believe me this forum has plenty of hyperbole.....doomed, we're all doomed...just kidding

[bvigal]

12z GFS has started

OK, so it looks like no low until 6z Saturday.

[Frank2]

In reference to my comment about Jeff's "discussion" - when I first glanced it, I wondered for a time as to where this "product" came from - was it from a NWS forecaster at SJU, or, was it from a forecaster at NMC?

The way it read (and was bolded) gave me the impression that it was from a NOAA forecaster - an official product in the public domain.

Some may ask "What is the problem with that?", well, some here may know this, some might not, but, this site is peppered with financial speculators, who use the expertise of those, like Jeff (who I respect), to get an "edge" on the oil and gas market, which is highly sensitive at this time to any threat - be it natural or man-made.

That's the problem - S2K needs to place a disclaimer above "products" such as Jeff's, if nothing else, advising the reader that the "product" is totally unofficial.

On that note, some might ask why the NHC hasn't "picked up this system" - again, this is the problem with unofficial "forecast products".

Jeff, and the other professional meteorologists here, need to use caution when placing their own "forecasts" on this site - I learned while at NOAA, when it comes to a professional opinion, their words can be used against them in a court of law.

Frank

[White Cap]

In reference to my comment about Jeff's "discussion" - when I first glanced it, I wondered for a time as to where this "product" came from - was it from a NWS forecaster at SJU, or, was it from a forecaster at NMC?

The way it read (and was bolded) gave me the impression that it was from a NOAA forecaster - an official product in the public domain.

Some may ask "What is the problem with that?", well, some here may know this, some might not, but, this site is peppered with financial speculators, who use the expertise of those, like Jeff (who I respect), to get an "edge" on the oil and gas market, which is highly sensitive at this time to any threat - be it natural or man-made.

That's the problem - S2K needs to place a disclaimer above "products" such as Jeff's, if nothing else, advising the reader that the "product" is totally unofficial.

On that note, some might ask why the NHC hasn't "picked up this system" - again, this is the problem with unofficial "forecast products".

Jeff, and the other professional meteorologists here, need to use caution when placing their own "forecasts" on this site - I learned while at NOAA, when it comes to a professional opinion, their words can be used against them in a court of law.

Frank

Maybe the NHC doesn't want oil prices to go up and that is why they don't mention it yet.

[Meso]

Hrm.. It's a forum though and well,it's a forum for the public to base their opinions on the systems as well. Forums aren't really used for one to log onto and read the posts expected professional information from each post.IMO it's what is expected to be found in a forum.If it were a page only for data etc I would agree.. Well that's just my opinion.. *backs away*

[ThunderMate]

Whats the 12z out to and what is it showing right now?

[Meso]

It's out to 60 hours so far and looking pretty similar to the previous run at the moment
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[bob rulz]

I won't for a second believe that forecasts from an Internet weather forum would make the price of gas go up. And if for some strange reason it does, it won't go up enough for me to notice.

[brunota2003]

its out to 90 hours now!!!
Edit: Looks like its still showing the low pressure area also...

[SouthFloridawx]

Shows two areas of low pressure out there.

[Trugunzn]

so far 120:



looks like 2 lows merge together