TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Mac]

If he keeps this up my prediction of cat 1 cane within 24 hrs. may not seem as far fetched to some come this time tomorrow. LOL

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the storm is trying to come together...bringing the heart of the convection over the LLC. Watch that loop. Look at the very cold cloud tops popping on the NW quad by the LLC.

Yes, disturbing. I think the mid-shear has relaxed to almost nothing and convective chimney is nearly vertical to well above 500 mb. Above that the upper shear continues to intensify and the CDO is getting pushed back. But is conditions are anywhere near as intense inside as they were earlier he's continuing to intensify at a good clip. 85Ghz imagery indicates he's full of hail - a frightening thought.

Now THAT would be a scary ride. 45mph sustained winds, gusts to 60mph and hail all lasting for hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gut feeling for 2 days was what would happen in NO if they were hit....

This is depending on where the High over Texas will be...if gfs is right, lookout LA/MS/FL...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Maybe we are seeing a "narrowing" of the spread? The western models are shifting east and the eastern models are shifting west? I've not researched this...but the field of landfall candidates appears to be shrinking (and New Orleans is still in play)

which western models have shifted east? so far it seems like the CMC, NOGAPS, and GFDL are all left of earlier positions.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS has shifted east

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

[PTPatrick]

cant wait to see the 0Z antics from the GFDL

[Stormcenter]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

Isn't that like almost half the entire U.S. GOM coastline?

[LaBreeze]

A couple of local mets seem to be pretty confident that the expected arrival of a front will be our saving grace here in SW LA. I suppose we'll see if this pans out over time. How much push is this front expected to have with it? Will it make it all the way to the coast?

[Droop12]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

It doesnt look right to you because its the only one not heading for Texas.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

My early guess would be between Freeport, Tx and Pensacola, i know that's a large area but we're 6 days out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

Isn't that like almost half the entire U.S. GOM coastline?

No. That leaves out AL and FL. I am not saying they are out of the woods by any means, but it seems like the latest models look better for them ATM.

[WxGuy1]

Re: outflow... I've seen that scalloped appearance to outflow before, and, IIRC, it tends to accompany intensifying outflow / updrafts rather than weakening outflow / updrafts. As another member noted, the radial appearance of it certainly looks like shear is having less of an impact. There could have been a large burst of convection that has led to enhanced divergence aloft, which then leads to stronger radial outward flow, which then helps "push against" the ambient flow aloft (e.g. the stronger flow to the NW of the storm).

I'd be very cautious of the GFS path forecast / position posted if the same forecast only shows a relatively weak storm. An intense, "deep" Ernesto WILL move in a different direction than a more shallow, weak Ernesto. So, the fact that it shows Ernesto where it does while keeping it weak tells me that it will not be there if it is strong(er). Weaker systems tend to be affected more by low-level flow than upper-level flow, while stronger systems tend to be steered more by flow aloft than the low-level flow (and we read about this all the time when the NHC addresses dissipating storms).

IMO, the entire Gulf coast is at threat, with a slightly enhanced threat for the north-central Gulf coast. Anyone who gives you a specific landfall location at this time is full of it. Models WILL change, so it's probably not worth it to nit-pick every one at this time, particularly when Ernesto is in the strengthening phase (if it indeed is).

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS has shifted east

but I still think the GFS looks too slow and too weak. Either way though, the overall spread of important models seem to now indicate a TX, LA or MS impact.

It doesnt look right to you because its the only one not heading for Texas.

actually no droop, but thanks for your meaningless input.

[Mac]

Oh Geez! Anderson Cooper on CNN just said that Ernesto may have N.O. in its sights. That should make for a fun filled weekend in LA.

[Furious George]

My early guess would be between Freeport, Tx and Pensacola, i know that's a large area but we're 6 days out.

KFDM - of course you know the midpoint between Freeport and Pensacola is just slightly west of N.O. Hope that doesn't verify.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The HPC moves the front out just in time for it to have little impact.

[ronjon]

Wow, anyone check out the 00Z GFS - It takes the storm north through the weakness to just off the coast of Mobile, then stalls it, then very slowly moves it E-SE toward the west coast of FL - living down here in FL for 25 years, I seem to recall another labor day storm that did the same thing - she was called Elena!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

A couple of local mets seem to be pretty confident that the expected arrival of a front will be our saving grace here in SW LA. I suppose we'll see if this pans out over time. How much push is this front expected to have with it? Will it make it all the way to the coast?

What happens if Ernesto slows down or stalls? Then I guess all bets are off. I still think it's way too early to put too much on what the models are saying beyond 72 hours. I believe alot will change between now and when (if it does) Ernesto enters the GOM.

[Mac]

I'll tell you, I'm not seeing any front diverting Ernesto to Mexico or south TX. It will only affect his path a couple hundred miles one way or another. Doesn't it seem a little early in the year for a front to be pushing as far south as some are suggesting? Not saying it can't or won't happen...it just seems a little early to me to dig that deep.