Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Bgator]

Not to downplay any danger to Florida, as we all know even a TS can cause problems, but this storm looks pretty bad right now and is about to cross Cuba which will continue to weaken it. Does Ernie still have time to strengthen into a cat 2 before hitting south FL??

Looks unlikely, but in the discusiion they poitn out they say it can be a cat2 maybe a cat 3...read 5Am discussion!

[Deenac813]

Even a tropical storm would be bad for us here. There are many people that still have tarps on their roof and any storm hitting us would have a horrible effect on insurance. If we have no storms hit us at all this year we may have a chance for a little insurance relief next year but not the way it looks now!

[tropicsgal05]

What are the chances of the models moving back west or is this track rather certain? I have never seen models move so quick in such a short period of time. It's been crazy.

[Derek Ortt]

no matter what Ernesto becomes, it should bring heavy rains to SF

[HollynLA]

Looks unlikely, but in the discusiion they poitn out they say it can be a cat2 maybe a cat 3...read 5Am discussion!

I did read the 5am, I'm just curious if their would really be time for it to strengthen into a cat 2 or cat 3 before reaching FL.

[SWFLA_CANE]

What are the chances of the models moving back west or is this track rather certain? I have never seen models move so quick in such a short period of time. It's been crazy.

Nothing is ever certain until it happens. Florida is a narrow state, a shift 50 miles west and swfla gets a hit, a shift 50 miles to the east and it never touches Fla.

[HollynLA]

Even a tropical storm would be bad for us here.

I completely agree, but there is a big difference in a sheared TS and a cat 3 hurricane. That's what I'm asking.

[DESTRUCTION5]

no matter what Ernesto becomes, it should bring heavy rains to SF

No doubt 24 hrs to travel 100 miles...

[Stormavoider]

What are the chances of Ernie doing the "dances with mountains" thing and moving NE around the east Cuba mountains?

[Normandy]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

^Cuba Radar^
If what im seeig is right, the center of Ernesto might be crossing Cuba right now (assuming im reading the center correctly).

[Robjohn53]

This storm has been one heck of a ride. Seems like everytime we thinks it's doing one thing it's doing another. It's like it has a mind of it's own, it's done everything possible to survive from the shear and who's knows what else. Its seems to go where evre it wants to for some reason and has baffled all of us as well. Where ever it gose be prepared and stay safe....

[jlauderdal]

Looks unlikely, but in the discusiion they poitn out they say it can be a cat2 maybe a cat 3...read 5Am discussion!

I did read the 5am, I'm just curious if their would really be time for it to strengthen into a cat 2 or cat 3 before reaching FL.

yes there is plenty of time for that happen however intensity forecasting continues to be one fo the great mysteries of the world by NHC's admission. I recommend anyone in a warning area once issued prepare for a direct hit at their location regardless of what you hear toherwise. We have see in to many times to count focusing on the line and people getting burned..charley, katrina(sofla), Irene etc. Don't get too cute trying to nail these things down to apoint, they change course all the time, look at this storm already. With that said, the trend is for it to never touch the United States howver now the models have great datafrom the upper mission. Plus if you have to put your sgutters up in the next day or so you can leave some of them up until November. Off to the gas staion to get my 50 gallons of gas for the generator, lasts me 5 days if i dont need it the car uses plenty besides i dont do lines at gas stations or stores.

jlauderdal

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

^Cuba Radar^
If what im seeig is right, the center of Ernesto might be crossing Cuba right now (assuming im reading the center correctly).

We need some visibles...Bring on the sun light

[cat]

It may be bye bye, but the latest advisory at the NHC says this (excerpt):

"THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0901.shtml

This is one Floridian that won't be saying bye bye until it clears my lattitude.

[clfenwi]

The most recent fix by recon, taken at 6:30 had Ernesto about ten nautical miles south of the Cuban coast. It will overland by 7:30.

[Gulfer]

I have been following Ernesto closely...currently in Key West. It really does seem to be jogging more north for the last few frames of the water vapor sat. I know the sst's are favorable for intensification, but it really looks like some drier air is inhibiting it from the west. any thoughts ?

[sfwx]

I follow the advice of the NWS and the NHC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY AND RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL THEN TURN NORTHWARD AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING ON THE PRESENT TRACK...WITH TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO POSSIBLY BE
AFFECTED BY A LAND FALLING TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY.

REVIEW YOUR FAMILY HURRICANE PLAN...SECURE LOOSE ITEMS AROUND YOUR
HOME WHICH MAY BECOME FLYING DEBRIS IN A STORM...STOCK EXTRA WATER
AND HURRICANE SUPPLIES...MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD SECURE BOATS.

Eric

[Fusion13]

Looks like it might be going straight up the middle of FL. Just be prepared.

[Stormavoider]

Light is being shed.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19.5&lon=-75.5&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=4&palette=ir.pal

[Eyewall]

I think its about to get sheared..
look at the upper-level clouds to the N and NW
not spreading out anymore