INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Chacor]

That loop nicely shows Barbara dying in the ITCZ too.

[canes04]

Thanks to 92L there is a little more excitment on Hurricane Eve.
All I can say is bring on the rain!!

Hope everyone is prepared for the season!! Be safe out there.

Ok, I'm going back to lurking mode.

[N2FSU]

From tonight's Tallahassee NWS discussion:






00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. A 1005 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES
ESE OF CANCUN MEXICO...BASED PRIMARILY ON SHIP AND BUOY DATA. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THE CHIEF CONCERN FOR US FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS AREN`T CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION.
LOOKING AT THE AVAILABLE UPPER AIR DATA FROM 31/12Z AND 01/00Z...THE
WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF IS LARGELY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW...IF NOT CUT OFF ENTIRELY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE
FLA EAST COAST APPEARS FROM THE 12Z TO 00Z DATA TO BE NEARLY THE
SAME...OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER. GIVEN THE WEAK AND CUT OFF NATURE OF
THE UPPER LOW...THERE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH PUSH TO GET THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FLA PENINSULA AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS. THE NAM IS BEING
DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY AS IT HAS A POOR HISTORY WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS.
THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LEFT (NORTHWEST) OF THE GFS TRACK.
THE 31/15Z SREF RUN IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE
MEMBERS IN THE MSLP FIELD STARTING AROUND 09Z SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN LOOKS LIKE A BLEND BETWEEN THE 31/18Z GFS AND 31/12Z EURO.

IN SUMMARY...IT`S WORTH WATCHING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS DUE TO THE SHEAR INVOLVED THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NON TROPICAL IN NATURE. CURRENT THINKING FAVORS A
SOLUTION THAT`S BLENDED BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE DAYSHIFT...AND THIS WOULD TRACK THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEEP THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FROM THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD.


IS the NWS -removed- some rain for my area? I guess even the pros do it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

a slower motion would be interesting. If it could sit down in the NW Caribbean a little longer, then it might have a chance to get it's act together a bit more.

[windstorm99]

Looking more like a south florida event...

[caneman]

Looking more like a south florida event...

Can't buy just one run. Some of those don't preform that well at that latitude. Doesn't really matter should be a big soaker for at least for Central and South Florida. Lets hope!

[windstorm99]

Thats correct as we await future runs but the overall impact will be the same with tropical moisture moving threw the area.

[jaxfladude]

Yep, major type on my part

I corrected it to state STD 2 IF declared

I would prefer to keep any STD's away from me, thanks.

I started this whole thing, but at least I typed out: "Sub-Tropical Depression..."

[Opal storm]

Sorry but landfall anywhere north of Tampa is pure wishcast IMO.lol I wish we could get some rain up here too but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. The Mobile,AL AFD even said that 92L would bring us a even drier airmass.

I agree this being more of a S FL event, and if the center re-locates further east under that bubble of convection then it may just barely hit FL.

[fci]

Yep, major type on my part

I corrected it to state STD 2 IF declared

I would prefer to keep any STD's away from me, thanks.

Now that is just plain funny!!!!!

[wxman57]

System looks pretty interesting.. 1005 mb or so at the nw carib buoy and the low center must be nearby. big 24 pressure fall too. it doesn't look particularly tropical though.. an ugly sheared thing. it needs to get its act together before moving too far out of the Caribbean if it will do much I think.. the shear is wicked in most of the Gulf.

Pressure is up to 1006 mb at the NW Caribbean buoy now with light ENE winds. That indicates there could be a broad low center closer to 85W vs. 87W. However, the wind could be due to convection north and east of that area. The lower surface pressure could still be west of 86W, and there could be multiple low centers. Looks like a tropical disturbance interacting with a deep upper-level trof - a hybrid system. Not much potential for strong winds, but could produce beneficial rain for Florida late Friday through Saturday. Not sure there's enough there for recon to investigate yet. Lots of shear to contend with. Convection could flare-up again overnight but if development is to occur (tropical development), then the convection needs to persist over the same area for 24 hours. That wouldn't be necessary for a subtropical low, though.

Bottom line is that some type of low will likely develop and bring rain to Florida. Wind and surge won't be an issue.

[windstorm99]

Steve lyons on the weather channel just said this will be a central to south florida event with rain and wind and also stated that there is a good chance of that 92L will become a TD before getting scooped up.

[Derek Ortt]

does not matter if it is a TC, STC, or ETC... effects will be the same, heavy winds, strong gusty winds in the squalls, and likely tornadoes with the wind shear

[windstorm99]

does not matter if it is a TC, STC, or ETC... effects will be the same, heavy winds, strong gusty winds in the squalls, and likely tornadoes with the wind shear

Can't agree more derek.

[wjs3]

does not matter if it is a TC, STC, or ETC... effects will be the same, heavy winds, strong gusty winds in the squalls, and likely tornadoes with the wind shear

the issue of "concerning" hodographs and the potential for tornadic supercells is a great point. Thanks for bringing it up, Derek.

WJS3

[B'hamBlazer]

Sorry but landfall anywhere north of Tampa is pure wishcast IMO.lol I wish we could get some rain up here too but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. The Mobile,AL AFD even said that 92L would bring us a even drier airmass.

I agree this being more of a S FL event, and if the center re-locates further east under that bubble of convection then it may just barely hit FL.

Anyone fixated on ANY of the models at this point is simply -removed-. That's the unfortunate thing about everyone being in a drought. I mean there's always -removed-, but particularly when there's a drought this extreme, people will go to the extremes to try to convince themselves and others that it's headed for them. Most of the models seem split (even from what I'm still seeing). I see no convergence on a south Florida event by the models. I see a pretty even split, in fact. So the best bet, right now, would be towards a hit in the big bend area of Florida.

[Chacor]

[sunnyday]

One last word before bedtime--I fully expect to wake up in the morning and read in this forum that the rain has moved completely away from South Florida and is expected to head north of Tampa. Time will tell.

[Ivanhater]

wow, its pulling the thunderstorms from the south up to it...in a few hours the blobs will connect, guess we will see what it will look like in the morn...

[Noah]

wow, its pulling the thunderstorms from the south up to it...in a few hours the blobs will connect, guess we will see what it will look like in the morn...

Can you give me the link to this webiste please?