Charley Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

LOL 24 hours is way too soon my friend....... it wont develop signifigantly until about 36 hours out, and/or until it slows down it will have a hard time keeping a good circulation fdrom being exposed...... sorry i just found the 24 hour comment on it being a hurricane quite amusing

[cajungal]

What is everyone's opinion on what will happen to Charley? Will it be another Florida panhandle storm? Is Southeast Louisiana in the clear? My dad works on a oil rig in the Gulf. He leaves tomorrow. I wonder if they will send him home.

My best friend and her family are in Destin, Florida right now. Right in the path of possible hurricane Bonnie!

[Stormchaser16]

That is IF charley holds together, right now it is having some trouble

[Josephine96]

I think Charley will end up somewhere on the West Coast side.. maybe just north of Tampa/St Pete

[Rainband]

I think Charley will end up somewhere on the West Coast side.. maybe just north of Tampa/St Pete

The models say the panhandle, either way we are on the east side Time will tell. That would be a catostrophic disaster

[HURAKAN]

Is weird, because usually the Eastern Caribbean Sea is not very favorable for intensification or development doesn't matter the if you are in July or in September. Charley has been able to strength although it is moving through the Hurricanes Graveyard and with a supersonic speed.

[Stormchaser16]

If charley slows down enough it could miss the trough altogether and meander in the GOM for sometime...... too early to be asking a question like this, because Charley actually needs to hold together through the next day or so before it actually begins to strenghten

[lilbump3000]

To me right now its to early to tell were it will go in the gulf. As for now the models are in a fair agreement that it will go into the flordia panhandle. We still have plenty of time to watch this and things can change.

[Stormchaser16]

Because it is a larger system..... it is easier for it to overcome relative shear....... it was also a well organized wave/TD before it entered the Eastern Caribbean, which makes a big difference

Still..... now Charley may have a hard time strengthening over the next 24 hours, i am not so impressed with it ATT

[Josephine96]

What would be a disaster? Being on the East side..? Tampa St Pete? both? lol.. I'm confused

[ColdFront77]

What is everyone's opinion on what will happen to Charley? Will it be another Florida panhandle storm? Is Southeast Louisiana in the clear? My dad works on a oil rig in the Gulf. He leaves tomorrow. I wonder if they will send him home.

If Charley gets to strong, even moderate Tropical Storm or Hurricane strength I wouldn't think anyone should be on an oil rig even if the system's center is approaching the area; the waves will be very high nonetheless.

[Steve]

In my mind (and I already responded on your other thread) it's South Texas or Northern Mexico. If he continues at his current forward speed, MS/AL border to St. George's is also a possibility. Little chance it affects Louisiana or Peninsular Florida (outside of peripheral effects for the latter).

Steve

[Brent]

I see the UL, but it doesn't seem to be that strong. I don't think it'll affect it much.

[ColdFront77]

Sure Stormchaser, however the general consensus is for a developing system with warm water temperatures and shear that shouldn't be high enough to inhibit further development.

[Derek Ortt]

any west winds with the fast mvoement will do a number on this. Remember Claudette lat year and its 25mb of weakening in just 8 hours in the NW Carib? Same type of scenario MAY play out of this does not slow down some

[boca]

If you take a ruler and line it up to the center of Charley it looks like it would move just South Of Jamaica and slam into Cozamel ,Mexico if the steering currents stay the same.

[ColdFront77]

You are referring to the "extrapolation model." It is unlikely that the steering current will remain the same with the players around Charley.

[Stormcenter]

Central American and then Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

I know that most of this are from late September or early October but with the weather pattern that we have now it seems more fall than summer. This tracks are from some tropical system formed in the Eastern Caribbean and had South Florida in the eye.

[jlauderdal]

With the guidance at hand today, it looks like South Florida will dodge this.

With the said, I agree with jlauderdal and have little confidence in the five day. I'd be a rich man if I had a dollar for every extended forecast that had a direct hit at Miami and never even came close. With everything in the mix here (Bonnie, Charley, trough, etc) everyone north of either storm needs to monitor them.

little to no confidence would be feeling after years of watching these systems. I satnd by what I said yesterday, I wish Miami was in the center of the track for sunday.