Global Models Thread for 90L

[Brent]

If we want to talk about Flossie, we'll go to that thread???

Anyway, you can't deny the amazing consistency in the models. This is not just one run or one model showing it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sure. Mr. Bastardi! or someone will.

Can I say that I really don't like what Mr JB has to say in weather.I have never seen him right yet. If he was I missed it. I am very sorry I don't want to hurt any one. it is JMO

well obviously you do not follow him. I have been reading his posts and watching his videos for the last 2-3 years and I would say that more times than not he is right. He may get small details wrong, but when it comes to the "overall" pattern of things, he is usually right on. For instance, he correctly predicted this August heat we are experiencing way back before summer even started! Another thing I like about him is that even if he is wrong he admits his mistakes openly and grades his forecasts. Not many mets do that. Overall the key thing to remember is that nobody is perfect and we all make mistakes from time to time. We shouldn't judge people only based on the times they occassionally mess up.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Bastardi is good. He likes to look at things on a global scale and at long range and is very accurate.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Anyone know when the ECMWF comes out?

3:30 Eastern time or so.

[southerngale]

Hey Dean,

This is only my opinion, but please don't post things like "We don't need this here in the panhandle, not after Ivan, Dennis and even some Katrina affects."! Everyone on the GC can say that exact same statement, so no matter where it hits, it's hitting an area that has been affected by storms in the past few years. Louisiana and Mississippi, Alabama, and all of Florida can't take another hurricane, but that is a risk we take by living on the GOM! When people make those statements, it sets up a whole page of "Alabama can't handle this storm!", "Louisiana is still recovering from Katrina!", etc.

The only exception is some of Texas, and I don't mean to leave them out! (Nor do I hope they are the ones to see a 'cane this year!) Hopefully the GC will see another "damage free" year.

Part of Texas (Southeast Texas... where I live) was devastated by Hurricane Rita... the worst hurricane anyone living over here has ever seen. We saw a horrible cane 2 years ago and I pray that we'll never see anything that bad, or worse, again.

And yes, I know you said, "some" but it was "some" of the other states as well.

You kind of did what you were asking Dean not to do.

[Weatherfreak000]

Can we please stop talking about Flossie?

We had similar problems talking about Cosme when we had invests. Both of these storms have similar tracks, and I seriously doubt Flossie will make landfall in Hawaii. All given forecast tracks confirm this thinking.


How about let's talk about Model Runs for the Atlantic Ocean please?

[SouthFloridawx]

1006 now eh?

[Weatherfreak000]

It is indeed refreshing to see "Gradual Development" in a TWO for a change this season.

[Derek Ortt]

Good Lord, you are all missing the point

I am saying the models are having some problems with consistency. I am not taking these seriously until they actually start initializing what is there first and fore most

[Weatherfreak000]

But, the GFS has been forecasting this African wave development for at least 48 hours now.


Are you saying it's been initialized incorrectly for over 48 hours? What do you think the wave is gonna do?

[Derek Ortt]

I think devleopment far slower than is being indicated. I am not so sure that the easterly wind surge is being correctly depicted. At the HRD briefing yesterday, there was 50KT of easterly wind near the COA with even stronger.

I think this has a good chance to develop, but maybe not until the wave behind moves off, blocking the SAL, which may mean development near 35-40W. Could well be an islands threat

remember, GFS had this as a depression right when it emerged... so it already has a development bias

[bvigal]

I have to agree with Brent, I cannot remember GFS consistancy at this level, or agreement even in part by other models, even (as Derek pointed out) sometimes on exisiting hurricanes. Yes, the models do crazy things. So, given the numerical probability of cyclogenesis consensus, this is impressive to me. If I lived in the continental U.S., I would not be concerned yet, looking at over 10 days on models - anything could happen. However, living in the eastern Caribbean, with GFS consistently showing a deterioration in MY weather from a tropical system possibly by midnight Thursday, I'm certainly taking note. For that matter, as a daily routine, the following all by itself is enough to give me concern, which is charted by a pro, human being, at NHC's TAFB:

[SouthFloridawx]

I think devleopment far slower than is being indicated. I am not so sure that the easterly wind surge is being correctly depicted. At the HRD briefing yesterday, there was 50KT of easterly wind near the COA with even stronger.
I think this has a good chance to develop, but maybe not until the wave behind moves off, blocking the SAL, which may mean development near 35-40W. Could well be an islands threat

I agree with Derek, I think it's going to take longer to develop than the models are doing. Looking at imagery it does look like it has an awesome shot, the wave behind will help it develop.

[Extremecane]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Can you post the 500 for that time. I haven't got the new EURO yet.

[cycloneye]

Can you post the 500 for that time. I haven't got the new EURO yet.

He posted the 00 UTC run.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks, i didn't think the new12Z was out yet.

[x-y-no]

12z ECMWF at 24 hours:


(SLP 2mb isobars and 500 heights)

Don't have 48 hours yet. Will post when I do.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks, keep em coming.

[sevenleft]

It's further south than 00 through 144.