ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Comanche]

Is the sample data now incorporated into this run?

Alright - since the long-anticipated data is already reflected into these models and the forecast track has a landfall point at the end of the cone - are there any other variables that could lead to any other wibbles, wobbles or jerks left or right of said track? Any other solid scenario lurking in the shadows that could warrant a significant change either way?

Where the center finally forms..........

[Jevo]

0z GFS +114 (2nd CONUS Landfall)

[Hurricane Alexis]

If this has the jet info then the euro should also move east imo.

[Aric Dunn]

105 hrs is where the big difference is. at the 500mb level the ridging is gone this run and the 18z/12z built it in a kept it going wnw to nw. thats why this run its slowed way down.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +117 (PCB moving inland)

[Vortex]

H114 landfall Apalachola-

[timmeister]

00Z GFS 120 HRS

[Javlin]

Well as it stands now and it will change abit more for tuning still looks NO to Panama city?Also this slow movement at landfall Gawd rememds me of georges I was never so happy to get trapped in an eye for 6-10hrs all went quiet My buddies in Pasgaoula got beat to death but I went to sleep.

[BigB0882]

If this run ends up at the MS/AL/FL border then to me it is a VERY consistent run for the GFS considering the new data it was given. 50 miles or so when you are talking 5 days out (or more) for final landfall is really nothing at all. You expect that kind of change, at least, on each model run. I think we are all focusing too much on East or West when the real truth, so far, is that it is about the same (more or less).

I AM NO EXPERT, JUST MY OPINION

[Aric Dunn]

117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z


so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency

[Dean4Storms]

0z GFS +117 (PCB moving inland)

Actually that is between PCB and P'Cola around Fort Walton Bch/Destin!

[Aric Dunn]

[Tertius]

This is hilarious. We have posters swearing it is the same as the past model runs from today and others saying it is considerably different. Which in the World is it? To my completely untrained eyes it looks slightly East but not a huge shift at this point. Final landfall is too far away to call but we shall see shortly.

Overall it hasn't moved east all that much, this is true, but there are other important differences in addition to that eastward shift. Firstly it is slower, and it also gains latitude and clears Cuba sooner than on earlier runs. This should allow it more time to organize better and strengthen more, which is precisely what the model is showing it doing. Also, since it it moving slower whatever impact it does have on SoFla will be more prolonged.

So no, the differences don't seem huge but nonetheless they could have a significant impact.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

H114 landfall Apalachola-

I'd say closer to Ft Walton beach/panama city Still anywhere in there (the entire western panhandle ) probably have hurricane conditions.

[ROCK]

105 hrs is where the big difference is. at the 500mb level the ridging is gone this run and the 18z/12z built it in a kept it going wnw to nw. thats why this run its slowed way down.

yep....comes down to what transpire upstream with the GFS and EURO handling of the ridge over the plains and the ALT ridge...

[jasons2k]

Interesting, not what I expected to see tbh. I'm pretty shocked to see the ridge split that much. Time to crash and see what the morning holds.

[meriland23]

I have just woken up, wondering what the difference is in models between 0z and 18z? eyes not working right yet lol

[clipper35]

more eastward shifts are coming the next model runs will be interesting

[DIwestender]

Ok...one down...now the Euro runs at 3:00 Eastern, correct?

Thanks so much for posting the GFS run!

[Wx_Warrior]

Exhausted, but Rock, will you join me later this evening for an 0z EURO run?