ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

Little more spread in the 12z spaghetti model plots.

Where are they out already?

[cypher2001]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/06L_tracks_12z.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Little more spread in the 12z spaghetti model plots.

Actually looks like less spread to me, with the AVNI, TABD, et cetera, shifting over land.

[ronjon]

Always entertaining, the 06z NAVGEM has a major hurricane headed for St Augustine/JAX area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090906&fh=144

[seahawkjd]

Always entertaining, the 06z NAVGEM has a major hurricane headed for St Augustine/JAX area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090906&fh=144

Does it do a better job in general with weather? It seems like the Navy would need accurate weather forecasts for ship movements.

[txwatcher91]

Always entertaining, the 06z NAVGEM has a major hurricane headed for St Augustine/JAX area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090906&fh=144

Does it do a better job in general with weather? It seems like the Navy would need accurate weather forecasts for ship movements.

It generally has a suppression bias with systems and isn’t a very good model in general. It can be useful but it’s not the best with TC track.

[Steve]

Always entertaining, the 06z NAVGEM has a major hurricane headed for St Augustine/JAX area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090906&fh=144

Does it do a better job in general with weather? It seems like the Navy would need accurate weather forecasts for ship movements.

No. It’s pretty late to the game a lot of times. There was one year several years ago it led the pack with some storms, but it’s fairly unreliable until it catches on. It has some skill but not that much.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Interesting that intensity consensus peaks at +72H then decreases...even over warmer SSTs with little to no shear. I wonder why...?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Re: FV3-GFS

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038757320203882498

[jlauderdal]

Always entertaining, the 06z NAVGEM has a major hurricane headed for St Augustine/JAX area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090906&fh=144

robust flat ridge to the north, solution makes sense per the overall pattern but does the ridge look like that on approach, areas to the south of current landfall proijections need to be on guard, these models rarely verify this far out

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Interesting that intensity consensus peaks at +72H then decreases...even over warmer SSTs with little to no shear. I wonder why...?

I haven’t looked at the intensity models, but we were figuring yesterday that it would be some combination of land interaction, eyewall replacement cycles and dry air intrusions. It’s very hard for any system to maintain a peak beyond 36-48 hours without being affected by internal and external forces. NHC doesn’t landfall it at its peak, but it’s either a high 3 or low 4 on their forecas discussion. 145mph at 96 hours and 120mph at 120 hours from 06z.

[tolakram]

More ensembles hit land than go out to sea.

I also wonder how Ryan Maue is coming to his 'performed poorly' conclusion.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well trends did not go my way overnight

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

[tolakram]

Well trends did not go my way overnight

Unfortunately not, but that's why you made sure to prepare early. Stay safe!

[tolakram]

0Z Euro

[invest man]

Looks like consensus models nudged a little north bringing it in around Jacksonville/Swansboro/ Emerald Isle NC area! Anyone have an idea based on timing when watches might be posted?

[tolakram]

0z Euro from weather.us