ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1208.8463745117188&y=1107.8273315429688

[Vdogg]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

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yes it’s just this forum is so ADHD everyone just completely changes their mind on the storm based on short term changes

It’s so crazy how everyone is calling time of death on this storm and it’s been struggling for what, an hour? It’s survived worse. Let’s see where we’re sitting at the end of the day.

[Jr0d]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

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Looks like there is an inflow band over water that may help feed it forva few hours until it gets cutoff againby Cuba.

Im more concerned with the Hurricane Hunter data. Seems like both planes are heading back...maybe one of them will turn back into the storm.

This is not currently a hurricane, though the NHC may play it safe and go to 65kts at 11am. Shear and land interaction is taking a toll on Isaias.

[tolakram]

[Kazmit]

Look like we went from everyone calling it pitiful, to being impressed by it for a few hours, and back to everyone calling it pitiful.

[tropicwatch]

SLIDER floater

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1208.8463745117188&y=1107.8273315429688

Looking like the center is exposed except the northeast where there is a blow up of convection.

[cp79]

Looks like Hispanola may have claimed another one. Isaias is dying a slow death this morning. Shear, of course, is aiding to it, but HIspanola did a job on the center.

[xironman]

Looking at the steering layers it looks like a weaker storm will trend west http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[ava_ati]

Looks like Hispanola may have claimed another one. Isaias is dying a slow death this morning. Shear, of course, is aiding to it, but HIspanola did a job on the center.

This is all shear IMO, if anything going over the DR helped create a defined LLC and get rid of the southern portion which was stealing its thunder.

[gatorcane]

Look at those SSTs

[zhukm29]

It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...

This is actually quite hilarious because it would be the third consecutive 'I' retirement on List 6 (Isidore -> Ike -> Isaias).

The reason the 'I' storm gets retired a lot is because it always ends up during peak season. Yet this time the 'I' storm may be on the cutting block and it formed in July. The 'I' curse is definitely real... I think 50% of all 'I' storms have been retired during the 21st century.

Also funny that 'I' has the fewest names as well... it would be a lot easier to find replacements if 'H' or 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead.

Maybe they should just retire the whole letter...

The I's get replaced on the naming lists as frequently as they get replaced in a hurricane.

Sorry, just thought of an EWRC joke that I had to share. Continue on...

[HurricaneEnzo]

Hispaniola has nothing to do with this. This is all shear related. It has a strong circulation should be able to hold on for the foreseeable future. The question is will the shear abate and allow strengthening or is it going to be battling this all the way up the coast.

[AutoPenalti]

Look at those SSTs

https://i.postimg.cc/L6jC8Ryx/bahamas-large-1-F.png

It has roughly 500 miles of warm water.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Look at those SSTs

https://i.postimg.cc/L6jC8Ryx/bahamas-large-1-F.png

It has roughly 500 miles of warm water.

If shear relaxes that will be a problem. If not won't really mean a whole lot. Minimal strengthening at best.

[kevin]

Look at those SSTs

https://i.postimg.cc/L6jC8Ryx/bahamas-large-1-F.png

It has roughly 500 miles of warm water.

Indeed. I know it doesn't look as great as a few hours ago, but even with the shear let's please not make the mistake of already 'cancelling' a storm when there's still plenty of time and room for it to reorganize and intensify..

[ronjon]

Still getting inflow from the south cutoff by eastern Cuba/Hispanola. Not seeing tremendous shear right now. As it continues to pull away from Cuba it will get better organized the next 24 hrs or so. After that, SW shear starts to increase significantly.

[gatorcane]

Shear is actually decreasing at the moment over the NW Bahamas and South Florida:

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still getting inflow from the south cutoff by eastern Cuba/Hispanola. Not seeing tremendous shear right now. As it continues to pull away from Cuba it will get better organized the next 24 hrs or so. After that, SW shear starts to increase significantly.

Doesn't look cutoff to me. You can see it flowing right into the storm. Has plenty of moisture feed.

[Blown Away]

Steady WNW-NW movement, maybe slightly SW of track...

[DestinHurricane]

Please stop with the storm cancel posts. I learned my lesson 2 days ago when I predicted that it wouldn't get a name. As others have stated, this has 500 miles of warm water. Will be interesting to see what it does for sure.