ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Too much consensus now to go with the GFDL run IMO....all of the big boys have the EC runs.....HWRF is jacked and has been since they intro'ed it....

I agree, whilst the GFDL is certainly an interesting *what if* type run, the consensus is very strong now from the global models and unless they are all missing something then its hard to ignore that consensus.

Still interesting for sure!

[Pigsnibble]

Hopefully the GIV data will help sort things out..

Yup, agreed. That's what's what we need. Should help define if we have a path opening or closing.

[ConvergenceZone]

Very big shift west.. wow thats a huge spread. Panhandle to NC.

I think this is the way for the models to tell us, "we don't know where the heck Irene is going, thus we keep changing our minds".

[stormreader]

Too much consensus now to go with the GFDL run IMO....all of the big boys have the EC runs.....HWRF is jacked and has been since they intro'ed it....

For the time being you are definitely right. But it is an intersting anomaly. Another day or so should help to sort this out.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't expect much of a shift in the NHC track at 11 pm based on the GFDL. Kinda of surprising that the GFS is not closer to the GFDL - they usually are not this far apart. Does the GFS shift further west at 00z? The NHC mentioned two troughs in their discussion this morning on Irene. What apparently the GFDL is reponding to is that the first trough lifts out and the second trough is much weaker - in fact, the second trough doesn't really affect Irene at all. Is it right? Who knows? The Euro is usually king here so its probably an outlier but at the very least, the models haven't quite closed the book on the track yet.

[psyclone]

gfld all the way back to riding the 85 meridian toward apalachicola. quite the outlier. i figured after it's earlier move to sw florida it was in the process of heading east too.

[fci]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

So you shoot down the middle!

[fci]

Hopefully the GIV data will help sort things out..

Does anyone know when that gets integrated into the model runs?
I know I saw a map several pages back with drop locations but I don't know when that is scheduled to occur.

[vacanechaser]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

So you shoot down the middle!

which is what the nhc is doing!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Evil Jeremy]

Hopefully the GIV data will help sort things out..

Does anyone know when that gets integrated into the model runs?
I know I saw a map several pages back with drop locations but I don't know when that is scheduled to occur.

I think G-IV is tomorrow night.

[Dean4Storms]

You certainly cannot ignore what the 18z GFDL is showing, it wasn't but yesterday that many of the other models were also showing this as a possibility. Interesting.

[ROCK]

until the GFDL proves me wrong my bet is with the EURO 90% with the CMC 10% of the time. Lets all remember the GFDL didnt even develope this until yesterday..

in regards to the GFS after a horrid start to the season it has done fairly well this time around. Have to give it props..however eventhough the EURO hopped around a little it was pretty much east of the models in the beginning.

[MWatkins]

Unless I can't find the drop reports (which is possible) I don't think think the GIV is flying tonight (think first mission is 0Z 08/23, which is tomorrow night).

In that case, the models are on their own tonight!

Interesting spread in the guidance tonight, so guessing no real changes at 11PM

MW

[rockyman]

The GFDL's solution seems to take into account the "Hispaniola Effect"...after the system crosses the length of Hispaniola, it temporarily weakens and turns back to the west or even WSW...it then takes about a day to restrengthen...after that, it turns back to the NW, just like the other models...it just makes the turn about 200 miles farther to the west.

[stormreader]

The GFDL's solution seems to take into account the "Hispaniola Effect"...after the system crosses the length of Hispaniola, it temporarily weakens and turns back to the west or even WSW...it then takes about a day to restrengthen...after that, it turns back to the NW, just like the other models...it just makes the turn about 200 miles farther to the west.

Do any of the models take into account "the hispaniola effect"? I didn't think they did.

[Dean4Storms]

Appears the GFDL has Irene barely a TS once it gets west of Haiti. Could be it see's such a weak system not feeling the weakness and steered more by the flow around the ridge at lower levels.

[Dean4Storms]

The GFDL's solution seems to take into account the "Hispaniola Effect"...after the system crosses the length of Hispaniola, it temporarily weakens and turns back to the west or even WSW...it then takes about a day to restrengthen...after that, it turns back to the NW, just like the other models...it just makes the turn about 200 miles farther to the west.

Funny, I was basically typing the same thing.

[daisy32]

Is the GIV flying out of MacDill Afb in Tampa?

[Portastorm]

Is the GIV flying out of MacDill Afb in Tampa?

Yes.

[Tampa_God]

Funny how things have changed in 8 hours since the last time I saw the models. 12:40, Irene was off Florida and heading towards the Carolinas. 8 hours later, we're back talking about a East GoM Irene. Like I said yesterday, going to take a day or two before we can tell what she's going to do.