Global model runs discussion

[boca]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

It takes a Wilma track across South Florida

[cycloneye]

That 00z GFS run was a comeback for Western Caribbean development,but let's wait for more runs to see if it turns consistent on showing it and if other models join especially the ECMWF that has been silent on this.

[Meso]

The 06z GFS run is showing a different scenario again. It shows 2 African waves developing in the middle periods of the forecast. It develops one fairly aggressively at a super low latitude, but then a trough moves off the US and pulls the storm from like 9N to fish in a matter of days, moving NNE.

At 384 hours it looks like winter over the NE US.

[rainstorm]

The 06z GFS run is showing a different scenario again. It shows 2 African waves developing in the middle periods of the forecast. It develops one fairly aggressively at a super low latitude, but then a trough moves off the US and pulls the storm from like 9N to fish in a matter of days, moving NNE.

At 384 hours it looks like winter over the NE US.

http://i51.tinypic.com/5wf3bb.gif

http://i56.tinypic.com/e182ep.gif

http://i54.tinypic.com/9sylh2.gif

yea, basically winter comes early. its going to be really hard for anything to threaten the US with that pattern.
things looked hopeful a week ago when the gfs advertised a huge high locking in over the nw atlantic, but that 3 year trend of an east coast trough just wont break.

[SootyTern]

That phrase 'hopeful' used with 'threaten the US' again. I just don't get it.

Maybe you need to move further south; we can get bad storms down here through the end of October.

[RachelAnna]

The week has been slow but lets put the GFS into perspective here. It never saw Arlene or Don in the caribbean whereas all the other models were seeing it. Here are my thoughts.

Watch the CMC for potential developement along the EC this weekend. the GFS doesnt see squat.

I think the last half of Sept is going to be big.

I think Texas will see its first October major hurricane on record. Flame away but I am going against climo here.

for those people who say ssts are an obstacle....really?

No flaming.. Just curious what has you thinking we'll see a major hurricane in our future? Respect your opinions, so just want to see where you are coming from on this one.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[LarryWx]

That phrase 'hopeful' used with 'threaten the US' again. I just don't get it.
.

I know I'm saying the obvious, but this is a hurricane enthusiasts' BB. Many want action close by and are bored otherwise. I shouldn't need to tell you this.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
The 12Z gfs is the 2nd in a row showing a very low lat. westward moving (or possibly moving a touch S of W) TC in the E ATL within just the next couple of days. IF this turns
out to be a real TC and if it actually ends up moving at ~270 degrees or lower and even though it is rather late in the season for an MDR storm to make it across, climo would say that it would have a decent shot at getting pretty far west.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,this is something that I was waiting for and I know many of you are on the same boat. The ECMWF coincides with GFS on developing something,this time a CV system.

144 hours



240 hours

[Adoquín]

luis check the latest gfs at 192 and beyond. it takes the low which looks fairly strong into the Eastern Carib wnw and then nw, north and northeast. guess who gets clobbered in that run...

[cycloneye]

luis check the latest gfs at 192 and beyond. it takes the low which looks fairly strong into the Eastern Carib wnw and then nw, north and northeast. guess who gets clobbered in that run...

Yes,I saw who gets clobbered,but being at long range,that will be changing a lot. If it shows up that way in the 72 hour timeframe,then I will start to worry.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't believe anything the GFS is forecasting beyond the next 3-5 days. Every single run has a completely different forecast in the long range. Each run ends with some amazing storm in the 10-15 day range affecting a different part of the basin each time. It's like pulling the handle of a slot machine every 6 hours.

[HurricaneFan]

Folks,
The 12Z gfs is the 2nd in a row showing a very low lat. westward moving (or possibly moving a touch S of W) TC in the E ATL within just the next couple of days. IF this turns
out to be a real TC and if it actually ends up moving at ~270 degrees or lower and even though it is rather late in the season for an MDR storm to make it across, climo would say that it would have a decent shot at getting pretty far west.

Is this the Tropical wave that is SSE of the Cape Verde Islands now?
And it seems the latest GFS is making it a Lesser Antilles storm in 8 days while the latest EURO is making it an ocean storm?

[Adoquín]

Agreed. models will be models and gfs has a different outcome solution on every run but I feel we have been selected as one of the 16 other semifinalists for hit. lol

[bigdan35]

12z Fim



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12z Nogaps



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Both are weak but are hinting at lower pressure in the western Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=We have the third hurricane of this 2011 season. Go to active storms/invests forum to see Marias information.

[fci]

That phrase 'hopeful' used with 'threaten the US' again. I just don't get it.
.

I know I'm saying the obvious, but this is a hurricane enthusiasts' BB. Many want action close by and are bored otherwise. I shouldn't need to tell you this.

I have fought this battle over and over with the people who obviously want destructive storms to strike the CONUS.
You tell them that being an "enthusiast" in one thing and -removed- a storm to break their boredom is another and it falls on deaf ears.
REALLY, you should not be defending those who want solutions to their boredom by having something exciting to track as it causes destruction to personal property, finances and livelihoods.

Oh, that is just my opinion as a mature adult who has an aversion to people's pain and suffering.
Just an opinion.

[Macrocane]

...So the global models...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The 12Z CMC also develops an area of low pressure at 144 hours near 40W.



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[Macrocane]

Actually that doesn't seem to be a low, I see there a TD just east of 60W and a TS near 40W. Wxman57 mentioned that the GFS has been inconsistent and that's true but the 12z runs of all global models are again on board with development in that area so this time it has model support, let's see if the don't flip back to non-development in the next runs.