Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF bringing the hammer down!

Day 9

[GaryHughes]

Sleet is developing to the West of DFW, National Weather Service is concerned it could turn into freezing rain.

[GaryHughes]

0zECMWF bringing the hammer down!

Day 9
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... PUS216.gif

If that were to verify, Wow is not a strong enough word!

[BigB0882]

I don't know how to read 850 mb maps. I know someone said it is hard to say what kind of temps but is there a general rule for translating 850 temps down to the surface?

[DonWrk]

Sleet, snow, and lightning up here in grayson county right now.

[Ntxw]

I don't know how to read 850 mb maps. I know someone said it is hard to say what kind of temps but is there a general rule for translating 850 temps down to the surface?

Probably means single digit temps to northern Texas and parts of the mid south. True arctic blast, that 1044 in the central and southern plains is about as big as it gets in these parts

[DM32F/0C]

Hey fellas this in my first post so hope I'm doing it right. I live in the big town of Pottsboro In north TX and was just awakend to the sounds of some sleet hitting my window! It's not much but it's white and frozen so I'll take it!

[Tejas89]

Little sleet storms tracking through Dallas and Collin counties now. Really more like frozen rain pellets but a fun 30 minutes and enough to decorate cars and rooftops.

[Texas Snowman]

Another "War and Pezce" AFD from Fort Worth's Mr. Cavanaugh this morning. Note the end of the discussion when a "Bear Watch" is issued:

"THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD IMPACT NORTH TX SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY IF IT VERIFIED. THE 13/00Z ECMWF HAS A 1053 MB (MSLP) SURFACE HIGH BARRELING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHICH IS A SIGN OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVASION OF THE PLAINS. THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION TO VERIFY AT THIS TIME...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE TEENS IF NOT LOWER ACROSS NORTH TX WHICH COULD CERTAINLY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS IS SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME...SO WILL WATCH FOR MORE CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODELS BEFORE JUMPING ON AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK TO START OFF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

CAVANAUGH"

[iorange55]

^^^ I was about to tell everyone to go read his discussion. He really puts a lot of effort into his write-ups.

[GaryHughes]

From the morning discussion NWSFW:

FOR MID-WEEK...THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAEFS SOLUTION INDICATING THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EAST AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION LIMITS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX BY KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERED AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WOULD ALSO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE 00 AND 06Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH PREFER THE STRONG AND SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY SIGN THAT THIS SOLUTION COULD VERIFY AS IT WOULD LIKELY ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IN THE REGION IF IT VERIFIED. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAEFS AND THE 13/00Z ECMWF AS THIS IS BY FAR THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. HOWEVER WILL NOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE NAM AS IT WOULD BRING A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT TO SOME PART OF NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS.

[somethingfunny]

This morning's AFD from Mr. Cavanaugh is a classic. Definitely go read it....

My take, borrowed heavily from the NWS discussion: The models are not handling our post-frontal precip well at all. The ECMWF has dropped the mid-week cutoff low... while the NAM has shown it in two consecutive runs now. The NAM and ECMWF both did very well with our upper level low last week, but one of them is going to bust here. If we get a cutoff this upcoming week, it could be a big winter storm, so be prepared and pay attention to changing forecasts. Preparation never hurts, after all...

I do wonder if the ECMWF suddenly dropping the cut-off low and the extreme cold solution towards the end of the recent runs are related at all. The models just seem fishy, and I hope we can get a better agreement by the end of today.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF cuts off the low. It just does not have moisture going with it. We will need some help from the subtropics if we want to see wintry weather. Systems like this rarely cross Texas dry (i.e the last one that came through not too long ago from northern Mexico). The vorticity will generate some lift so wait and see game.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So it looks like the big polar outbreak is going to finally happen, and I am going to be in Florida. I'm not sure whether to be happy or sad. Any expected impacts to Central Florida? Disney plans are in the works.

[Portastorm]

Hey fellas this in my first post so hope I'm doing it right. I live in the big town of Pottsboro In north TX and was just awakend to the sounds of some sleet hitting my window! It's not much but it's white and frozen so I'll take it!

First of all, welcome to Storm2K! Thanks for posting and "jumping in." Good to hear that the metropolis of Pottsboro enjoyed some winter weather early this morning ... and it probably was a bit of a surprise, too, right?!

I suspect you'll have more to talk about in the days ahead. Stick around.

[Ellsey]

My husband woke me up to tell me there was something on the ground. Sure enough, it looks like sometime put fertilizer on our grass. Pleasant sleety winter surprise for us. Looks funny though.

[Portastorm]

Cavanaugh (NWSFO Fort Worth) appears to be the only one mentioning the possibility of a winter event this coming week. The rest of the offices in the potentially affected area assume the GFS and Euro and keep things dry. But clearly the 0z and 6z NAM show a winter weather event for portions of west central, central, and western portions of the DFW Metroplex in a few days. Bears watch!

[gboudx]

Like our television ABC affiliate met Steve McCauley, Cavanaugh isn't shy about discussing the "what could happen" scenarios. McCauley has to reign it in a bit since his audience is much more vast with the TV medium.

I'm going to let everyone in on a very likely winter weather event for the DFW area; January 25-26th. How can I be so confident? Because those are the 2 dates we are moving into a new house.

**The above is for entertainment purpose only. Though it is a safe bet to plan for school-aged kids to not have school on the 26th. Lock.**

[GaryHughes]

Cavanaugh (NWSFO Fort Worth) appears to be the only one mentioning the possibility of a winter event this coming week. The rest of the offices in the potentially affected area assume the GFS and Euro and keep things dry. But clearly the 0z and 6z NAM show a winter weather event for portions of west central, central, and western portions of the DFW Metroplex in a few days. Bears watch!

Portastorm,

I have been looking at all the models that came out and it looks like Cavanaugh could be on to something in a few days from now, just as you and several others have mentioned in the last week or so.

In my opinion this would be a freezing rain event as mentioned in his (Cavanaughs' ) morning discussion.

[WeatherNewbie]

Woke up with sleet accumulations on the rooftops in Farmers Branch/Addison this morning.