2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

A good analog could be Irene 1999

[toad strangler]

A good analog could be Irene 1999

There isn't any good analog yet. There is absolutely no confidence in anything yet.

[Hurricaneman]

A good analog could be Irene 1999

There isn't any good analog yet. There is absolutely no confidence in anything yet.

Thats why it could be and not an absolute, we'll know more by Monday or Tuesday most likely

[CrazyC83]

I know a Nor'easter-type low could develop Wednesday or Thursday off the Carolina coast. Is there any chance that could gain (sub)tropical characteristics? Time will be the enemy as it will likely only have about 24 hours before it goes inland in New England.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1310002587324895233



 https://twitter.com/TrackTropical/status/1310001342774218753



 https://twitter.com/HenryLWilson1/status/1310014035459440646

[Shell Mound]

Don’t count on a hurricane coming out of the Western Caribbean next week. May have to wait until later in the month we see something more significant.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1309987091892367360

well then this will probably hit the peninsula. We always get the sheared slop

Note that the models are showing a strong subtropical jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which is rather atypical of La Niña, but very typical of El Niño. #2020

[cheezyWXguy]

Gefs a little more enthusiastic this go-around, but cmc is much less enthusiastic

[ClarCari]

Yeah I’m not buying this strong shear front coming all the way down to the Yucatan and Cuba. There will be some stability in the air but I think these modes showing so much shear and air stability are not taking the La Niña into account.
There’s just not awhole lot to take from all of this other than there will be some type of cold front with some shear and almost surely some type of TC development.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I’m not buying this strong shear front coming all the way down to the Yucatan and Cuba. There will be some stability in the air but I think these modes showing so much shear and air stability are not taking the La Niña into account.
There’s just not awhole lot to take from all of this other than there will be some type of cold front with some shear and almost surely some type of TC development.

The bottom of the front in bathtub water could itself become a mechanism for development.

[ClarCari]

Yeah I’m not buying this strong shear front coming all the way down to the Yucatan and Cuba. There will be some stability in the air but I think these modes showing so much shear and air stability are not taking the La Niña into account.
There’s just not awhole lot to take from all of this other than there will be some type of cold front with some shear and almost surely some type of TC development.

The bottom of the front in bathtub water could itself become a mechanism for development.

Oh absolutely!
I’m just very suspicious of models that start predicting conditions typical of El Niño years as it gives the impression that sometimes they don’t catch up to the changing ENSO. Another example would be models like the GFS sometimes overhyping the EPAC activity this year despite increasing La Niña conditions proving otherwise.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro says that all of those GFS runs last week with an Oct 3-4 storm genesis that later became hurricanes were on crack.

It appears that any Caribbean genesis would likely be later. The ENSO based analogs support the genesis being as late as 10/15-20. It appears we may be watching the W Caribbean very closely for one or two potential geneses for another 3 weeks or so. Don't let your guard down.

[Loveweather12]

I heard that model hasn’t been good this year? I’m still watching around the 4 of next month. Not going to let one model throw me off track & others shouldn’t either

The 0Z Euro says that all of those GFS runs last week with an Oct 3-4 storm genesis that later became hurricanes were on crack.

It appears that any Caribbean genesis would likely be later. The ENSO based analogs support the genesis being as late as 10/15-20. It appears we may be watching the W Caribbean very closely for another 3 weeks or so. Don't let your guard down.

[SFLcane]

Gefs a little more enthusiastic this go-around, but cmc is much less enthusiastic

[LarryWx]

I heard that model hasn’t been good this year? I’m still watching around the 4 of next month. Not going to let one model throw me off track & others shouldn’t either

The 0Z Euro says that all of those GFS runs last week with an Oct 3-4 storm genesis that later became hurricanes were on crack.

It appears that any Caribbean genesis would likely be later. The ENSO based analogs support the genesis being as late as 10/15-20. It appears we may be watching the W Caribbean very closely for another 3 weeks or so. Don't let your guard down.

The GFS has put an end to those 10/3-4 geneses and is now waiting at least til 10/5-6.
Indeed, nobody should take their eyes off the Caribbean during any of Oct. But it appears increasingly likely to me that all of those GFS runs were at least too early with a genesis. We'll know in about a week.

[blp]

GEFS P look like the old CMC wants to ramp things up too much in my opinion.

[LarryWx]

GEFS P look like the old CMC wants to ramp things up too much in my opinion.

https://i.ibb.co/NKvXs0C/8e4bdb55-b6d0-460d-9a3b-4de993dabad0.gif

Yeah, I don't have confidence in the para-GFS as it appears to be too genesis happy overall. Same goes for the newly upgraded GEFS. It will miss fewer geneses but it will have more fake storms.

The 0Z EPS continues with only a handful of sub 1000 mb storms. It has ~8 out of 51 or 16%. So, nothing like the GEFS.

Regardless, I do think there will be 1-2 geneses in early to mid Oct.

[TheStormExpert]

GEFS P look like the old CMC wants to ramp things up too much in my opinion.

https://i.ibb.co/NKvXs0C/8e4bdb55-b6d0-460d-9a3b-4de993dabad0.gif

Didn’t we just get an upgrade to the GFS the other day? If so than what’s this?

[Shell Mound]

There’s been a wall of shear over the western Caribbean since at least 2011. Why should it let up just now? Furthermore, shear thus far has been consistently higher than in a typical Niña year, hence lower-than-expected ACE to date. At this point I think the western Caribbean will continue to be a “dead zone” as far as major hurricanes are concerned, owing to the influence of Niño-like TUTT and STJ activity. As someone previously mentioned, another Michael in the Gulf of Mexico would be exceptional.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS this morning with perhaps a minimal Cat 1 hurricane into SFL. I am becoming more confident something is gonna form This upcoming weekend.

[MarioProtVI]

There’s been a wall of shear over the western Caribbean since at least 2011. Why should it let up just now? Furthermore, shear thus far has been consistently higher than in a typical Niña year, hence lower-than-expected ACE to date. At this point I think the western Caribbean will continue to be a “dead zone” as far as major hurricanes are concerned, owing to the influence of Niño-like TUTT and STJ activity. As someone previously mentioned, another Michael in the Gulf of Mexico would be exceptional.

We still have the entire month of October to get through, and also the models are probably not taking the La Niña into effect (particularly the GFS it seems). Don’t give up at all yet because 2020 is known for surprises, and the Western Caribbean has shown it is favourable this year more then other years with Marco and Nana (the former being a strong tropical storm before exiting and the latter becoming a brief C1).