ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Seems like it's having trouble clearing out the eye and keeping it that way?

[PavelGaborik10]

Seems like it's having trouble clearing out the eye and keeping it that way?

That tends to happen when massive bursts of convection are firing continuously.

[Teban54]

I don’t think Idalia can reach Cat 5 thankfully. Ian was already a 120mph major at midnight on September 28th and Michael was at Cat 4 status by Midnight on October 10th, and Idalia is closer to landfall than either Ian or Michael were at midnight on the day they hit.

Michael made landfall around 1pm central (2pm eastern), and Ian around noon eastern. Idalia’s aiming for a 7-8am landfall.

Not that I'm disagreeing with your main point, but a couple things to add: (All times are in ET unless otherwise specified)

• Ian's peak intensity of 140 kt was achieved at 12z (8am ET), similar to Idalia's projected landfall time, and it intensified from 120 kt at 2am. It weakened from then onwards before the landfall at 3:05pm.
• Michael made landfall at 1:30pm at its peak intensity of 140 kt. At 2am, it was also at 120 kt, and intensified to 125 kt six hours later.
• Idalia has a very small eye, much smaller than Ian's, and probably smaller than Michael's (not sure). This means Idalia can potentially experience even more rapid changes in intensity.
• Charley may be a better comparison to Idalia due to the eye size. Its intensities were: 95 kt at 8am, 110 kt at 10am, 125 kt at 1pm, and 130 kt at 3:45pm (landfall).
• NHC's intensity for Idalia is 95 kt at 11pm, and 115 kt forecast at landfall at 8am. It has 9 hours starting from the NHC advisory, and a bit less than 7 hours from this comment.

Going from 95 kt to 140 kt is a 45-kt increase in 9 hours, faster than all abovementioned storms. While it has happened before, I agree that's incredibly unlikely. On the other hand, a mid-to-strong Cat 4 in the 125-130 range (30-35 kt in 9 hours) remains very possible, and 130 would be equal to Charley's rate in the 8 hours before its landfall. It's also similar to Ian's 20-kt increase in 6 hours.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/tresislandfl/status/1696753899015729658




 https://twitter.com/sheriffpinellas/status/1696753554730442969

[Steve]

Seems like it's having trouble clearing out the eye and keeping it that way?

Off and on yeah. Looks like there is an in-feed about to circle the eye from the NE. Might be transient and just in the flow but could lead to another bursting phenomenon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/floridatropics1/status/1696753750931603628

[brad512]

Pretty much all of the counties Wakulla, Franklin, jefferson, Taylor and Dixie issued a mandatory evacuation south of 98. Everyone is gone for the most part. Even though it is usually really dark here, driving at night sucks.

FWIW, last Fall when Fiona hit here and about 80% of the province was out of power I looked at satellite floaters/pics like that the night after and it still showed everything being lit up as normal despite the fact that almost nobody had power, so it seems like those night lights aren't actually "live" or something. Just something interesting I noticed.

It could have changed now, but even if after this makes landfall and wipes out the power there it seems like those images don't show the changes in the lights.

Unless I'm mistaken, the weather satellite loops, etc., pretty much use a "static" background with the lights and stuff in the nighttime frames. The pictures like this one taken from the space station, though, are "what they see is what they photograph." That is, the lights, clouds, and everything else in the frame is real and was there when they took the picture.

Unless, of course, you're a Flat Earther. Then there are other problems that have to be dealt with.

I figured the weather loops had used some sort of static "filter" or something of the sort as they are more focused on the clouds and storms. I don't think we ever got a real-time before/after light shot released up here but some of those image websites are a bit tricky to navigate at times . although I've seen them for some other storms like Maria in PR. Likely we will get a before/after shot here too, I'm hearing power outages are already starting to come in.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Eyewall lightning has seen a serious uptick in the last 10 min or so, and radar velocities are increasing

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking recon finds a similar pressure to the last mission, maybe a couple mb lower. Winds slightly higher to support 100kts. We'll see

EDIT: never mind

[Owasso]

All I can say is wow. 944.6mb extrap

[ElectricStorm]

Oh

[wx98]

Well…944 extrapolated

[cheezyWXguy]

Ohhhh boy.

[IcyTundra]

I was expecting low 950s...

[Ianswfl]

Well…944 extrapolated

Yet winds didn't come up?? 944mb compact cat2??

[weeniepatrol]

[wx98]

Well…944 extrapolated

Yet winds didn't come up?? 944mb compact cat2??

Northern eyewall. Not the strongest side.

[ElectricStorm]

Well…944 extrapolated

Yet winds didn't come up?? 944mb compact cat2??

That's just one quad they haven't sampled the whole storm yet.

Also that N/NW side is quite a bit stronger than earlier

[CrazyC83]

Now we need to get the plane east of the center.

I'd put the intensity at 105 kt at the advisory, out of respect of radar and the pressure drop. It might be stronger once the plane goes all over.