Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[ROCK]

That's if this even turns back into the Gulf, and that's still a big IF.

big IF? how many models need to latch on before you concede?

A re-emergence into the GOM is still not the consensus, so yeah it's still an if. I'm not saying it won't happen, but right now it's not a very likely scenario.

I'll give you the "if" but that BIG "if" is getting smaller each model run....

[canetracker]

Rock, I agree. I don't see what the big IF discussion is about.

[Ivanhater]

Ugh sitting and getting stronger..go away!

[Wx_Warrior]

Stalling again...not sold on this run.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like a slowly moving system of good intensity playing games with the coastal cities of the N GOMEX.

[PTPatrick]

...WTF...RUFKM...Still stalled south of MS Monday afternoon...i CANT wait for this girl to come ashore til next week...



THANK GOD FOR UPWELLING IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...although...IF IT THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW INTO MS AND MOBILE BAY WOULD MAKE ANY WEAKENING A MOOT POINT FROM A STORM SURGE STANDPOINT

[ROCK]

well she is still moving west along the LA coast......interesting run..


edit...trof picking her up.....MS/AL landfall likely...at 150hr

[canetracker]

GFS @ 138 hr!!!

[Jason_B]

GFS @ 138 hr!!!

Which is why I wouldn't be too worried.

[PTPatrick]

If she emerges into the gulf again I think we should all join hands for a chorus of Elton Johns "the B**ch is Back"


MOVING IN OVER MS AL BORDER AT 150 hrs...DOUBT IT...I have to admit this run is a little crazy, if not consistent. I dont think I have ever seen a storm sit in the NGOM that long.

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

Al/Fl again....

[latemodel25]

reminds me of atari table tennis.

[ROCK]

GFS @ 138 hr!!!

Which is why I wouldn't be too worried.

138hr is not the 300hr la la land from the GFS.....now the whole stalling issue is sort of odd.....

[Ivanhater]

Well the important thing , the GFS is again showing this scenario..becoming more likely each time

[Stormcenter]

well she is still moving west along the LA coast......interesting run..


edit...trof picking her up.....MS/AL landfall likely...at 150hr

She never makes anywhere along the LA. coast in that run. As a matter of fact I have
yet to see a GFS run that takes that far west. Hey maybe a missed a run so my apologies if I'm wrong.
Either way if this pans out it will have a lot of folks stressed out along the northern GOM.

[Frank P]

GFS @ 138 hr!!!

Which is why I wouldn't be too worried.

Even if this track comes to fruition I would really worry too much... not like its going to have all that much water to work with.. storm surges are not that bad on the MS coast from storms which approach from such a steep angle.. now NOLA and Lake Ponchtrain might have more concerns than MS.. Elena was a Cat 3 that hit Biloxi and because of its steep WNW approach to the MS coast generated less surge than TS Isadore that came in from the due south...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This might be what "Steve from down the Bayou" was talking about earlier today. If he is arond I would like to hear his comments. Anyway he mentioned another high dropping out of canada and possibly merging with this high or at least reinforcing it to put a block on Fay again. Our met even mentioned something about it this evening but I was only half paying attention. So obviously there is some kind of concensus coming together about that. Will have to wait awhile it looks like though. Probably by tomorrow the models will move north again until they get a good handle on things.

[Rainband]

Dude one thing about Fay is she hasn't been likely thus far

[Stormcenter]

If she emerges into the gulf again I think we should all join hands for a chorus of Elton Johns "the B**ch is Back"


MOVING IN OVER MS AL BORDER AT 150 hrs...DOUBT IT...I have to admit this run is a little crazy, if not consistent. I dont think I have ever seen a storm sit in the NGOM that long.

Elena floated around for a good while in the northern GOM in 1980's I believe.
But that was in November and the steering currents were much weaker.