ATL: IRENE - Models

[NDG]

Here's a closer look to tonight's TVCN 0z run, it has moved a good 5-10 miles closer to eastern FL, especially to the NE section of the state.

[Kohlecane]

00Z TVCN shifts a bit west, just offshore SFL, landfalls Savannah.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

um no or a a bad link

it's right look under Storm 09

[CronkPSU]

anyone got a link to the spaghetti models?

[SeminoleWind]

i have a feeling after we can get some more data and the G-4 flight that this will be shifted west again.thinking the weakness will be very weak indeed, JMO

[CronkPSU]

will be mid day tuesday before we can get the G-IV data into the models

[Kohlecane]

anyone got a link to the spaghetti models?

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... large.html

[DeanDaDream]

anyone got a link to the spaghetti models?

Here you go.....http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/

[CronkPSU]

thanks guys!

[Lane]

here is another link. http://spaghettimodels.com/

[ronjon]

I don't think we can discount the "hispaniola effect" as having perhaps a major impact on the models. If Irene tracks across those mountains, it'll weaken with even a center reformation. I'm not going to get too keen on the ultimate landfall until we see what happens there.

[mf_dolphin]

There's also a link at the top of every page under the Models button

[Kohlecane]

Cant tell what the the Model is but the one near Savanna has it at a C 4 BOMBaladomdom

Edit:http://orcasystems.ca/zoo.jpg

[northjaxpro]

Here's a closer look to tonight's TVCN 0z run, it has moved a good 5-10 miles closer to eastern FL, especially to the NE section of the state.

If that verifies , that would put the center of Irene only about 30-50 miles off the coast of Jacksonville Beach. It is going to be close enough where we will here in Jax feel significant effects for sure, especially if she is a stronger cane.

[CronkPSU]

There's also a link at the top of every page under the Models button

facepalm...sorry

[viberama]

Here's a closer look to tonight's TVCN 0z run, it has moved a good 5-10 miles closer to eastern FL, especially to the NE section of the state.

If that verifies , that would put the center of Irene only about 30-50 miles off the coast of Jacksonville Beach. It is going to be close enough where we will here in Jax feel significant effects for sure, especially if she is a stronger cane.

The TVCN model also allows Irene to strengthen in the warm gulf stream. Pretty crazy scenerio if it verifies.

[gatorcane]

When I look at the GFDL model notice a fine detail with it.

It takes the system over Hispaniola, weakens it, moves it west since it becomes a shallower system...until eastern Cuba, then it starts to feel the weakness. The Euri and GFS are missing this fine detail...hmmm

The interaction with Hispaniola can ceratainly influence the track so stay tuned.

But still it us tough to go against the Euro and GFS.

I expect a right shift in the track at 11...line offshore Florida but still left of the consensus track.

I think they will want to see the 00z Euro.

[Emmett_Brown]

When I look at the GFDL model notice a fine detail with it.

It takes the system over Hispaniola, weakens it, moves it west since it becomes a shallower system...until eastern Cuba, then it starts to feel the weakness.

The interaction with Hispaniola can ceratainly influence the track so stay tuned.

Yep, I see that too Gator. Pretty interesting.

[Kohlecane]

I don't think we can discount the "hispaniola effect" as having perhaps a major impact on the models. If Irene tracks across those mountains, it'll weaken with even a center reformation. I'm not going to get too keen on the ultimate landfall until we see what happens there.

Well if it tracks On the northern side of Hispaniola there's virtually no Mountainous terrain there, so may not stop it to much, would have to stay on a southernly track across to really get messed with

[bella_may]

with the consistent gfdl westly track along with the ukmet and the tvcn shifting west just slightly,i dont think we will see any change to the track at 11. if we do, it might just be a SLIGHT shift to the west

[Rainband]

i see nothing to go against the nhc track.