ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050333
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120805
032500 1507N 07300W 8429 01586 0103 +185 +174 100011 012 004 002 00
032530 1508N 07259W 8429 01585 0104 +182 +178 109011 012 004 003 00
032600 1509N 07258W 8430 01585 0103 +184 +182 112011 012 002 004 00
032630 1510N 07257W 8429 01585 0103 +180 +180 126011 012 005 003 01
032700 1511N 07255W 8431 01583 0101 +184 +179 121012 013 006 003 00
032730 1512N 07254W 8431 01583 0102 +184 +177 120016 017 006 003 00
032800 1513N 07253W 8428 01585 0100 +185 +179 124017 018 009 002 00
032830 1515N 07252W 8429 01585 0099 +188 +170 132018 018 008 003 00
032900 1516N 07251W 8429 01585 0102 +180 +180 138019 020 013 004 01
032930 1517N 07249W 8432 01582 0103 +180 +180 136022 022 014 004 01
033000 1518N 07248W 8429 01584 0102 +180 +180 129024 025 018 004 01
033030 1519N 07247W 8431 01583 0102 +180 +180 136024 026 024 005 01
033100 1521N 07246W 8427 01588 0106 +180 +180 142028 030 027 004 01
033130 1522N 07245W 8425 01590 //// +165 //// 138033 034 030 006 01
033200 1523N 07244W 8435 01579 //// +163 //// 137032 033 044 008 01
033230 1524N 07242W 8422 01595 0110 +180 +180 140033 033 047 005 01
033300 1526N 07241W 8428 01589 //// +160 //// 143033 034 045 008 01
033330 1527N 07240W 8432 01584 //// +156 //// 140036 037 045 008 01
033400 1528N 07239W 8426 01591 //// +160 //// 139034 036 045 006 01
033430 1529N 07238W 8430 01589 0112 +170 +170 137032 034 046 005 01
$$
;

[wkwally]

I do not like what I am seeing with the NHC projecting Ernesto to retain hurricane strength over the Yucatan. I have yet to see this and if this is the case and this will become a major hurricane heading straight to Brownsville. With the warm waters here in the Gulf spells disaster here along the Gulf coast. We are starting to prepare now complete with evacuation plans. If it misses here well we can say we were ready.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS.

[wxwatcher1999]

i am a little confused...our local met just said that ernesto is on his way to becoming a hurricane and a disturbance coming into the upper texas coast next week may lead the way for ernesto to come this way

[Zanthe]

Dry air is apparently abundant.

Did you see my post at the top of the page with the precipitable water loop?

Dry air has nothing to do with Ernesto's present intensity situation.

IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.

[cycloneye]

Did they found west winds? If not,then is an open wave.

[littlevince]

[brunota2003]

Or how about the fact it has no low level circulation to focus the convection on, so it starts dying off. Isn't it amazing that earlier when there was barely a LLC, convection was sporadic at best...then on the last pass through, one tightened up and convection exploded all over it. Now that LLC pushed westward faster than the upper flow, while still assisting the convection it was leaving behind. Now that circulation has opened up completely (I have yet to see any west winds from recon...or for that matter, NW/SW winds too. Everything is from the S-E-N). Now the sat appearance is going to degrade because there is nothing there to sustain itself with.

If it doesn't pull something out of it's hat, and rapidly, there will be nothing but a trough of low pressure and a few scattered moderate storm left by tomorrow morning.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050343
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120805
033500 1531N 07237W 8428 01590 0112 +180 +180 139033 033 046 004 01
033530 1532N 07236W 8430 01588 0111 +180 +180 137030 033 046 004 01
033600 1533N 07234W 8427 01591 0113 +170 +170 136029 030 044 004 01
033630 1534N 07233W 8428 01591 0114 +170 +170 141032 033 043 004 01
033700 1536N 07232W 8428 01594 0117 +170 +170 140037 040 041 004 01
033730 1537N 07231W 8433 01587 0119 +170 +170 138039 041 040 005 01
033800 1538N 07230W 8432 01589 0119 +170 +170 134041 042 041 004 01
033830 1540N 07229W 8429 01591 0122 +170 +170 134040 041 041 004 01
033900 1541N 07228W 8430 01593 0123 +160 +160 130038 040 043 002 01
033930 1542N 07226W 8431 01591 0122 +170 +169 123037 038 042 004 00
034000 1543N 07225W 8432 01593 0120 +175 +166 122037 038 043 005 00
034030 1544N 07224W 8430 01595 0121 +175 +167 122037 038 043 004 00
034100 1545N 07223W 8430 01595 0126 +160 +160 120037 038 039 006 01
034130 1546N 07222W 8430 01595 0125 +170 +169 119038 038 039 005 00
034200 1547N 07220W 8429 01597 0125 +174 +161 120039 039 041 005 00
034230 1548N 07219W 8429 01599 0126 +172 +161 118035 038 042 004 00
034300 1549N 07218W 8429 01599 0126 +174 +159 119035 037 040 003 00
034330 1550N 07217W 8429 01599 0127 +174 +151 121039 040 042 005 00
034400 1551N 07216W 8431 01599 0126 +180 +148 124041 042 040 004 00
034430 1552N 07215W 8430 01599 0126 +175 +150 119039 042 040 004 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Did they found west winds? If not,then is an open wave.

Only briefly did they find ANY winds west of North or South...other than those brief NNW winds, nothing. No NW, W, SW, etc. No circulation at all.

[ozonepete]

Or how about the fact it has no low level circulation to focus the convection on, so it starts dying off. Isn't it amazing that earlier when there was barely a LLC, convection was sporadic at best...then on the last pass through, one tightened up and convection exploded all over it. Now that LLC pushed westward faster than the upper flow, while still assisting the convection it was leaving behind. Now that circulation has opened up completely (I have yet to see any west winds from recon...or for that matter, NW/SW winds too. Everything is from the S-E-N). Now the sat appearance is going to degrade because there is nothing there to sustain itself with.

If it doesn't pull something out of it's hat, and rapidly, there will be nothing but a trough of low pressure and a few scattered moderate storm left by tomorrow morning.

Hey bru, it really doesn't have to pull anything out of its hat, does it? It is moving into much more favorable conditions every hour now, and that's been predicted by most of the models for days now.

[littlevince]

[brunota2003]

If the low level flow doesn't slow down and let a new circulation build...it doesn't matter how perfect the rest of the conditions are.

[ROCK]

so you are telling me there in no circulation in this system? is that correct? no LLC.....ok HARP must be in full power tonight because no way in Gods green earth would this open to a wave with only a smidge of dry air ahead of it.....in the old days this was would be unheard of...

[Shuriken]

Dry air is apparently abundant.

Did you see my post at the top of the page with the precipitable water loop?

Dry air has nothing to do with Ernesto's present intensity situation.

The NHC seems to think otherwise.

IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.

So I think it's a valid statement to make.

I'm gonna just say that's flat-out wrong, and point to that previously-mentioned precipitable water loop as evidence, which doesn't show any such ingestion.

IMO what's going on here (and this overturns a post I wrote earlier today on the subject) is the poor ability of the outer circulation to wrap around with Hispaniola and South America in the way at the pinch-point. I don't think it'd be an issue if an eyewall had already developed or if the storm were still a weak TD, but at the present intensity the effect is noticeable (because of expectations of hurricane-hood).

The new banding appearing to the southwest of the center indicates to me that some wrap-around inflow is finally reaching that part of the storm.

Tomorrow will be interesting as a storm with strong bursting but a garbled surface presence plops out of the faucet into the bathtub. (Not predicting this, but you could even see weird behavior like a southwest jog and speed drop to a snail's crawl if it gets caught up in the lee of Venezuela and stews there for awhile.)

[brunota2003]

It's moving too fast. Here's what is happening...the upper level flow is moving along at 10 mph, while the low level flow (the easterly's are kicking) are ripping through at 20 mph. LLC builds...convection blossoms under it. LLC outraces convection and dies...winds are so strong down low that any new LLC trying to reform has a heck of a time closing off, thus the convection weakens a lot during the process.

[Hammy]

Looking like final advisory later based on surface conditions. Starting to remind me of Lili in 2002 after the shear let up it was still so disorganized and opened to a wave, but restrengthened again later (which i believe many of the models are still forecasting, at least to some degree, after it passes Jamaica)

disclaimer: personal opinion

[ROCK]

I give up and going to the bar......

[littlevince]

The winds at west in the last pass ... wow... I had to check twice if it was my mistake on the layer ...

[Cyclenall]

Dry air is apparently abundant.

Did you see my post at the top of the page with the precipitable water loop?

Dry air has nothing to do with Ernesto's present intensity situation.

The NHC seems to think otherwise.

IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.

So I think it's a valid statement to make.

The NHC wasn't clear on whether it was upper level dry air or mid-level dry air as upper has no effect on TCs.

Well this was the last straw (the straw that has broke the camel's back so to speak), season cancel. I'm sick and tired of garbage and every time there is an interesting TC maybe on the horizon, it craps out and does nothing (opens up into a wave!?). I knew it had to slow down quickly and turn wnw and because it didn't, these are the results: crap. Ernesto is cursed and so is the tropics worldwide currently. I posted I wouldn't be interested unless this became a hurricane and I should have stuck by that. Burned again. Then there is the El Nino which will then usher the crescendo of "weak sauce" (even the Epac quit in the middle of an amazing streak) which is when I stop monitoring the tropics. Enjoy the mediocrity until 2013...will the rubber band snap back then?

No need to bring the "Downcast Brigade" out.

I'm the leader of that "brigade" and I'm here to say it would take a miracle for Ernesto to change course now. Yes, it may strengthen at some point but after all this and this is the result?

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050353
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120805
034500 1553N 07213W 8429 01601 0128 +172 +150 115038 039 040 003 00
034530 1554N 07212W 8430 01600 0127 +177 +148 118037 038 038 005 00
034600 1555N 07211W 8430 01600 0125 +179 +145 120038 038 040 004 00
034630 1556N 07210W 8430 01600 0126 +180 +143 120038 039 042 003 00
034700 1557N 07209W 8433 01597 0127 +178 +144 122039 040 039 004 00
034730 1559N 07208W 8429 01604 0127 +181 +143 123039 040 042 003 00
034800 1600N 07207W 8430 01601 0127 +180 +144 127040 040 041 003 00
034830 1601N 07205W 8433 01600 0131 +175 +141 129044 045 040 003 00
034900 1602N 07204W 8429 01605 0131 +178 +138 129045 046 041 004 00
034930 1603N 07203W 8430 01604 0131 +180 +134 128047 047 041 004 00
035000 1604N 07202W 8431 01602 0132 +177 +133 128048 049 041 003 00
035030 1605N 07201W 8428 01606 0133 +178 +131 127048 048 039 003 00
035100 1606N 07159W 8432 01602 0136 +173 +132 124049 049 038 003 00
035130 1607N 07158W 8429 01606 0140 +168 +132 121049 049 038 003 00
035200 1608N 07157W 8429 01607 0144 +165 +126 121049 050 036 002 00
035230 1609N 07156W 8429 01607 0143 +166 +118 120049 049 035 002 00
035300 1610N 07155W 8432 01606 0144 +170 +110 121049 049 034 002 00
035330 1611N 07154W 8428 01610 0142 +172 +104 124049 049 031 003 00
035400 1612N 07153W 8428 01611 0145 +168 +126 124046 048 033 002 00
035430 1613N 07152W 8433 01606 0141 +172 +133 124046 047 032 002 00
$$
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