ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

14:45Z

[Ptarmigan]

Even with a strong El Nino in place in October, Joaquin is still a Category 4 hurricane. The late season has surprises.

Also, the central pressure is lowest in years since Igor in 2010.

[Ptarmigan]

Since Hurricane Joaquin lingered over Bahamas. I wonder how much rain has fallen. I could imagine over 25 inches!

[ObsessedMiami]

We in the CONUS need to thank our lucky stars that trough shunted this storm away. It could have been very, very ugly.

[tatertawt24]

Not sure if it could reach cat 5 intensity. If it wants to, it needs to do it now. The red isn't wrapped all the way around the eye like it should be for cat 5.

[Sanibel]

Must have moved back in to the previous favorability.

[Yellow Evan]

There is no W ring, or even B ring and only OW. Without recon, this would be a 5.0/T6.0 probs NHC would have this at 105-110 knots.

[RL3AO]

Not sure if it could reach cat 5 intensity. If it wants to, it needs to do it now. The red isn't wrapped all the way around the eye like it should be for cat 5.

[img ]http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2007/Felix_Sep_02_6.jpg[/img]

Maybe. But remember this storm is quite a bit further north than Felix and therefore the tropopause is going to be lower. This means the cloud tops will be a little warmer than a similar storm in Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Will it come closer to Bermuda than predicted?

[CrazyC83]

Special Advisory released - 155 mph winds.

[Extratropical94]

WTNT41 KNHC 031550
TCDAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

This special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecast
intensity through 36 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane
just penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb and
SFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track is
necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1600Z 26.0N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[emeraldislenc]

We really dodged a bullet on the coast of NC it would have been a terrible situation.

[tatertawt24]

Not sure if it could reach cat 5 intensity. If it wants to, it needs to do it now. The red isn't wrapped all the way around the eye like it should be for cat 5.

[img ]http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2007/Felix_Sep_02_6.jpg[/img]

Maybe. But remember this storm is quite a bit further north than Felix and therefore the tropopause is going to be lower. This means the cloud tops will be a little warmer than a similar storm in Caribbean.

Really? That means a hurricane can be cat 5 without perfect presentation? Everything I once knew was a lie!

Edit: 155 mph and still appears to be strengthening... I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches cat 5 and recon misses it.

[Sanibel]

Miami Herald:

The initial damage reports said roofs were ripped off, trees uprooted and utility poles downed. With high winds still hammering the island, it was too early to tell how widespread damage might be.

“As the hurricane continues to cross some of our small islands, we are eagerly awaiting to hear about the outcome,” said Capt. Stephen Russell, director of the Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency.

Nearly two dozen homes in a settlement on Crooked Island were destroyed on Thursday, said Marvin Hanna, an Acklins representative.

“At that time, vehicles were floating around and the water level was up to the windows of some homes,” he said.

Residents reached by relatives said they were “trapped in their homes, and reported feeling as if their structures were caving in,” Russell said. “It’s too dangerous to go outside because the floodwaters are so high, so we ask that persons stay inside and try to go into the most secure place of their home.”

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! Nearly a Cat.5 and in October of an Strong El Niño season!

If I were in Bermuda I'd be watching this VERY CLOSELY!

[RL3AO]

Really? That means a hurricane can be cat 5 without perfect presentation? Everything I once knew was a lie!

Edit: 155 mph and still appears to be strengthening... I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches cat 5 and recon misses it.

I'm guessing the top of the troposphere where Felix is usually runs about -80C while around Miami/Bahamas is around -75C. Thats going to make a difference between seeing a lot of reds vs oranges in an IR image (which is just measuring the temp of the top of the clouds).

[Sanibel]

All that squeeze and ULL elongation stuff and Joaquin just powered up and burst anyway. These cyclones are really tricky creatures.

[tatertawt24]

Really? That means a hurricane can be cat 5 without perfect presentation? Everything I once knew was a lie!

Edit: 155 mph and still appears to be strengthening... I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches cat 5 and recon misses it.

I'm guessing the top of the troposphere where Felix is usually runs about -80C while around Miami/Bahamas is around -75C. Thats going to make a difference between seeing a lot of reds vs oranges in an IR image (which is just measuring the temp of the top of the clouds).

Regardless, the red is almost completely around the eye now anyway!

(Btw, could that be why Haiyan had such ridiculously cold cloud tops?)

[SouthDadeFish]

You can get a feel for the tilt of the vortex in this image:



Nonetheless, the eye has contracted. Really impressive TC.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

For each of the forecast tracks shown, the storm keeps being east of the track.