ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

Several of the 00z EPS Ensembles now recurve Irma OTS after heading close or through the Bahamas. The operational run is on the far left side of the ensembles now. So expect east shifts which should also be good news for the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. I think chances of a Florida strike a decreasing.

Be careful with statements like this, it's not always the case. This goes for everyone, predictive statements have no place here. Please be careful of projecting false expertise. Starting sentences with I WONDER or PERHAPS does a lot to make sure folks know it's an opinion. Many times this is just a wording mistake, nothing to get angry about, but let's just be extra careful please.

[xironman]

Also, does anyone have a link to GFS LI/CAPE output?

Ah, the severe weather guys have that stuff

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Happy Pelican]

06z GFS has landfall:

I can't even wrap my head around this

[Happy Pelican]

Ok gfs you can stop trying to destroy my house please, those last few runs bring back those Sandy horrors living in NJ.

The spread is definitely getting smaller though, the odds of an OTS track are probably less than 50% right now vs. 75% two days ago.

I'm on Pelican Island. I feel your pain and have to think something will help pull Irma East and send her OTS

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ok gfs you can stop trying to destroy my house please, those last few runs bring back those Sandy horrors living in NJ.

The spread is definitely getting smaller though, the odds of an OTS track are probably less than 50% right now vs. 75% two days ago.

I'm on Pelican Island. I feel your pain and have to think something will help pull Irma East and send her OTS

Yeah...I can't imagine what it would be like...and I don't think I want to find out.

[robbielyn]

What I have noticed in model watching, whether it hits florida or hits new england, north carolina gets hit along with the way, so i'm going with a north carolina landfall as my guess as the middle between euro and gfs. Outer banks stick out like a sore thumb and the angle irma is coming at towards the US that sounds about right. i also remember the predictions earlier in the year for hot spots this season would be western gulf and eastern seaboard. if i were in the OB. i would be making preparations including where to go now. The rest of us north or south, keep strong eye on this as we don't know with any real certainty where it is going to go and be ready. Hopefully we r already ready. Just my opinion. Nothing else.

[hohnywx]

Ok gfs you can stop trying to destroy my house please, those last few runs bring back those Sandy horrors living in NJ.

The spread is definitely getting smaller though, the odds of an OTS track are probably less than 50% right now vs. 75% two days ago.

I'm on Pelican Island. I feel your pain and have to think something will help pull Irma East and send her OTS

Yeah...I can't imagine what it would be like...and I don't think I want to find out.

Agreed. One would hope to believe our area is much more prepared after Sandy but how much preparations can one do for a storm of that magnitude?

[Steve]

On that note eps is recurving away from Florida this morning. GEFS also shifted north. ECMWF op on its own

Decent consensus now Irma will end up somewhere in the Bahamas though

I've been screaming about this for a few days. Bahamas have had the most high impact storms of anywhere the last few years. It's been a hot spot and looks to remain one. They could get missed to the east, but the worry is a Cat 5 this time. All legit models are at lease close to the Kingdom.

[Blown Away]

GFS/Euro consistent on blocking Irma from turning NE into Atlantic... I think that's what you take away from these model runs, seems that HP wants to be strong and block Irma, wouldn't surprise me if a southerly route into EGOM or a NE impact... I will always side with magic trap door opening at some point for last minute escape...

[txwatcher91]

I’m starting to see a good consensus of Irma being in the Bahamas in 7-8 days, or close to them. Where it goes from there will depend on trough timing and ridge placement. We won’t have a good handle on that aspect for another 3-4 days but residents in the northern islands and the Bahamas should be preparing for Irma. IMHO.

[blp]

My money is shift west today just like yesterday. This is normal swings we see past 7 days. In the end the GFS will give the most ground due to its inherent trough bias We saw this with Harvey when GFS was showing North Florida for several runs which proved to be wrong.

[AubreyStorm]

Hmmmm!
Steering indicates a weakening of high pressure near 50-55 or not?

[weathaguyry]

GFS/Euro consistent on blocking Irma from turning NE into Atlantic... I think that's what you take away from these model runs, seems that HP wants to be strong and block Irma, wouldn't surprise me if a southerly route into EGOM or a NE impact... I will always side with magic trap door opening at some point for last minute escape...

It makes we wonder if we could end up getting a Donna track out of this.

[slamdaddy]

Not sure how much this matters in the big scheme of things, but my official NWS forecast for next Thursday and Friday has very unseasonable cooler weather. Highs low 80s and Lows low 60s and sunny. Located north central gulf coast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems models are about to shift even further east. EPS mean quite a bit east of OP. That East Coast TROUGH will prevail like it has for over a decade in my opinion. Things could change, but a good sign for the US. Still could hit Bermuda though.

[Michele B]

Not sure how much this matters in the big scheme of things, but my official NWS forecast for next Thursday and Friday has very unseasonable cooler weather. Highs low 80s and Lows low 60s and sunny. Located north central gulf coast.

Yeah, that's part of the trough, that - hopefully - would help lift this thing northward and away from east coast of CONUS. Or at least SE CONUS!

My fear is it will lift out and miss the storm....timing is everything.

[cajungal]

That is what should protect her from getting in the gulf. Looking a lot better for Louisiana/Texas.

[stormreader]

Landfall

Euro at 240hrs. Started saying yesterday that the window was Cape Fear North Carolina--down to the north coast of Cuba. Still feel that way. Ruled out the Outer Banks and points north. Taking a chance on that, but felt like storm would get too close to Fl before any significant north component. And we're still at a very early model stage. I'm not completely sold on the strong and late north turn yet. That's why at this point I still include as far south as the north coast of Cuba in my "window". But this run does fit inside my window.

[RL3AO]

Seems models are about to shift even further east. EPS mean quite a bit east of OP. That East Coast TROUGH will prevail like it has for over a decade in my opinion. Things could change, but a good sign for the US. Still could hit Bermuda though.

So Irene and Sandy don't count?

[ConvergenceZone]

Due to several of its Ensembles shifting East, I too think the EURO will shift East on its next run. A local Met even mentioned that. That's not to say that it can't Shift back West later though. We will see