Texas Winter 2025-2026

[orangeblood]

This is why it could get much colder. This is trending to be an absolutely behemoth high pressure system.

https://i.imgur.com/gQJ3kyN.gif

And a second one will drive cold further down, It's a 1-2 punch of snow/ice and then more cold. Dangerous cold set up.

https://i.postimg.cc/zB23rxxV/ecmwf-hp.gif

Truly remarkable to see, this looks arguably worse than 2021 at this point due to the precip. Much more significant QPF to deal with than 2021

[Wthrfan]

Time to buy bread and milk if you are in central, north, northeast, northwest Texas. This is THAT storm. Oklahoma too but for you guys what is some inches of snow? .

If we get a foot I dunno about that I dunno I wasn't even here the last time Tulsa had a foot haha(February 2011). That storm was apparently horrible here but it was also a full blown blizzard

Anyway someone is getting a foot for sure around here

I hope that big arctic high doesn't shift the majority of the precip too far south of us.

[wxman22]

Temps got down to 19 here. This will feel warm by the end of the week lol.

[Ntxw]

This is why it could get much colder. This is trending to be an absolutely behemoth high pressure system.

https://i.imgur.com/gQJ3kyN.gif

And a second one will drive cold further down, It's a 1-2 punch of snow/ice and then more cold. Dangerous cold set up.

https://i.postimg.cc/zB23rxxV/ecmwf-hp.gif

Truly remarkable to see, this looks arguably worse than 2021 at this point due to the precip. Much more significant QPF to deal with than 2021

Yes, not 0.02" qpf, but maybe ~1-2" of liquid equivalent. I've had double takes with this.

[TomballEd]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?si=rVFwb3hy7FklQlkr
My annual post for us DFW folks and for everyone who is interested. The January 1985 winter storm forecasted by Troy Dungan. One of the best growing up, along with Harold Taft, David Finfrock, and Brad Barton.
The report starts several minutes in but worth a watch.

My Dad was assigned by American Airlines down to DAL about 1960. The chief American met at that time was Harold Taft. My Dad says Taft often asked 'speak Yankee for us Charlie. 20 years later, 45 years ago, American sent my Dad back to DFW. DFW thunderstorms >>> Houston thunderstorms and there is least a chance for a winter storm per the models very year.

[snownado]

This is why it could get much colder. This is trending to be an absolutely behemoth high pressure system.

https://i.imgur.com/gQJ3kyN.gif

And a second one will drive cold further down, It's a 1-2 punch of snow/ice and then more cold. Dangerous cold set up.

https://i.postimg.cc/zB23rxxV/ecmwf-hp.gif

If that trend continues, it could actually end up delaying the precip transition timing for many areas in Texas and lead to an even deeper warm nose aloft.

Not ideal...

[orangeblood]

This is why it could get much colder. This is trending to be an absolutely behemoth high pressure system.

https://i.imgur.com/gQJ3kyN.gif

And a second one will drive cold further down, It's a 1-2 punch of snow/ice and then more cold. Dangerous cold set up.

https://i.postimg.cc/zB23rxxV/ecmwf-hp.gif

Truly remarkable to see, this looks arguably worse than 2021 at this point due to the precip. Much more significant QPF to deal with than 2021

Yes, not 0.02" qpf, but maybe ~1-2" of liquid equivalent. I've had double takes with this.

Yeah, I’m still struggling wrapping my head around this one. The anomalies are off the chart all the way around for this area of our planet

[rwfromkansas]

Well I partially expected a complete 180 of this system waking up this morning.

I did notice my weather app has gone up in temps for the weekend.

Still lots of time for Lucy.......

On the other hand, there's this...

https://x.com/i/status/2013553516149657645

That is concerning at first glance. Any thoughts?

[Ralph's Weather]

We are looking at a massive winter storm stretching from the Southern Plains to the East Coast. The front arrives during the day Friday turning rain to freezing rain and sleet through the day as it marches SE across the state. The freeze line may stall somewhere over SE TX until Sat night but away from the coast it could advance quicker than modeled. Along I-20 >2" QPF is modeled most falling in <25F temps. Question is depth of the cold air for precip types for the northern 1/3 of the state. With the surface high shifting more west and stronger on recent models we should expect the 850mb 0C line to shift south. I expect snowfall totals to max at near 2' north of I-20 with widespread heavy amounts along and north of I-20. As you move south of I-30 more sleet will mix in with freezing rain becoming the main type from the Hill Country through Deep East TX. Some freezing rain likely reaches the coast by Saturday night. This will be a long duration event with onset being Friday and not ending until Sunday morning. Following the precip we look to get a reinforcing shot of cold air dropping lows to near 0 north of I-20 early next week. I am gonna watch for possible smaller systems to work in next week but nothing clear on that front yet. This is very similar to the first phase of 2021 but thankfully at this time it does not look to have that kind of staying power.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is why it could get much colder. This is trending to be an absolutely behemoth high pressure system.

https://i.imgur.com/gQJ3kyN.gif

And a second one will drive cold further down, It's a 1-2 punch of snow/ice and then more cold. Dangerous cold set up.

https://i.postimg.cc/zB23rxxV/ecmwf-hp.gif

Truly remarkable to see, this looks arguably worse than 2021 at this point due to the precip. Much more significant QPF to deal with than 2021

For NE TX its similar, most of NE TX got 10 to 20" of snow from those systems.

[Tireman4]

Remember these sage words from HGX

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

[cycloneye]

Snow sweet spots include parts of Texas!

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2013612225467162982

[snownado]

Well I partially expected a complete 180 of this system waking up this morning.

I did notice my weather app has gone up in temps for the weekend.

Still lots of time for Lucy.......

On the other hand, there's this...

https://x.com/i/status/2013553516149657645

That is concerning at first glance. Any thoughts?

See my post (#2866) above...

The buckling of the HP is a response to the heights trending higher ahead of the pacific shortwave. It does result in beefed up QPF, but also could potentially drive warmer air into the region temporarily with the SW flow aloft.

[Ntxw]

Long range overnight continues the idea that the Pacific pattern will mature ->Aleutian low->-EPO transition by the second week of February. Troposphere->Stratosphere coupling, hunch is a major blast of cold is coming in Feb.

[orangeblood]

Remember these sage words from HGX

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

NAM coming in faster with the Frz Line, frz rain/sleet line pushing south of DFW by 6pm Friday evening

[jasons2k]

FWIW we have a new Chief Met. at the local HGX NWS office. He was a longtime forecaster at this office before moving around, so he knows his stuff. I’m looking forward to him running the local office.

[Ntxw]

Remember these sage words from HGX

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

NAM coming in faster with the Frz Line, frz rain/sleet line pushing south of DFW by 6pm Friday evening

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/refc_ptype/1768910400/1769212800-D41xMzYbmbc.png

I'm starting to think Saturday may just be a mostly snow day, we will see and sleet into central Texas. That is still one monster HP.

[Brent]

Time to buy bread and milk if you are in central, north, northeast, northwest Texas. This is THAT storm. Oklahoma too but for you guys what is some inches of snow? .

If we get a foot I dunno about that I dunno I wasn't even here the last time Tulsa had a foot haha(February 2011). That storm was apparently horrible here but it was also a full blown blizzard

Anyway someone is getting a foot for sure around here

I hope that big arctic high doesn't shift the majority of the precip too far south of us.

Yeah I know it's not exactly my favorite setup ever based off that but the other side.....the precip may linger into Sunday now it's not like it's gonna be some 2 hour window and then it's over I guess

Honestly I'm seeing people east of here scared it's gonna shift back north anyway. Not sure how but we'll see. I think they are worried it cuts into the northeast or something

Yeah he's worried about too much phasing and it goes inland basically

[orangeblood]

Remember these sage words from HGX

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

NAM coming in faster with the Frz Line, frz rain/sleet line pushing south of DFW by 6pm Friday evening

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/refc_ptype/1768910400/1769212800-D41xMzYbmbc.png

I'm starting to think Saturday may just be a mostly snow day, we will see and sleet into central Texas. That is still one monster HP.

Yeah, there's already an inch of sleet in DFW by Friday evening and it's just the 1st inning of this ball game!!!

[dhweather]

The GFS is trending colder, two straight runs with single digit temps across DFW on Monday morning. Not good.