ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Still too early to know for sure but it is looking more like a Central, possibly WGOM threat. Still anyone from Mobile to Mexico is still "on the hook" so to speak for now.

What worries me a little is the noted absence of AFM and WxMan57 here this afternoon. When my local mets are this busy, I get nervous.

[ALhurricane]

Well Gustav is definitely taking a beating on the smallest strip of land possible. He is likely below hurricane strength or will soon be and may take a little longer to recover than previously anticipated. The legend of the island continues.

[gboudx]

Still too early to know for sure but it is looking more like a Central, possibly WGOM threat. Still anyone from Mobile to Mexico is still "on the hook" so to speak for now.

What worries me a little is the noted absence of AFM and WxMan57 here this afternoon. When my local mets are this busy, I get nervous.

No email update from jeff either. Last email from him was this morning. If he has sent an update, can you PM it to me? Thanks.

[mutley]

I'm just not making much of this ridge that is suppose to push Gustav west. I think it will remain weak. I mean, thunderstorms are forming on the southern coast of Cuba. Just my uneducated opinion, but I think Gustav remains a threat to areas as far east as the big bend of Florida. Don't turn your back on it yet.

[Texas Snowman]

Crazy, remember Gilbert well, I'd guess that is the storm you are referencing.

I think Gilbert was a much bigger storm overall. While Gus may get bigger with time, he strikes me (so far) as more of a smaller Camille type of storm.

Of course, I'm not saying - at least not yet - that Gus will reach Camille's magnitude, but it appears to me that he could flirt with that neighborhood at some point in his travels.

[stormy1970al]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

I don't mean to put JB down or anything like that but if he said TX then I think I would look the other way. I would go with the NHC plots.

YES! Perhaps JB is saving us in Houston from this storm! Well, he actually is placing it at the current most populous place in the middle of the cone. I for one think everyone on the coast must take this very seriously, and I actually don't have a problem with storms being hyped a little (just to get general attention.) It's a fine line that the media must walk and we all know that.

I agree that everyone needs to pay attention to this storm if you live near or on the GOM.

[perk]

Still too early to know for sure but it is looking more like a Central, possibly WGOM threat. Still anyone from Mobile to Mexico is still "on the hook" so to speak for now.

What worries me a little is the noted absence of AFM and WxMan57 here this afternoon. When my local mets are this busy, I get nervous.

AFM was in a little earlier and said the W and NW GOM is in play.

[CrazyC83]

Yep I was comparing it to Gilbert based on a more southerly track.

[Stormcenter]

Still too early to know for sure but it is looking more like a Central, possibly WGOM threat. Still anyone from Mobile to Mexico is still "on the hook" so to speak for now.

What worries me a little is the noted absence of AFM and WxMan57 here this afternoon. When my local mets are this busy, I get nervous.

I don't think Frorida panhandle is out of the woods either...IMO.

[HURAKAN]

[Iune]

Gustav right now.

[Stormcenter]

Crazy, remember Gilbert well, I'd guess that is the storm you are referencing.

I think Gilbert was a much bigger storm overall. While Gus may get bigger with time, he strikes me (so far) as more of a smaller Camille type of storm.

Of course, I'm not saying - at least not yet - that Gus will reach Camille's magnitude, but it appears to me that he could flirt with that neighborhood at some point in his travels.

I remember the monster Hurricane Allen (hugh storm). Now it was suppose turn north and threaten the Noorthern Gulf coast and it never happened. It went straight into Mexico. The High to it's north never gave in.

[m_ru]

Hmmmm...I wonder if I have enough money in my bank account for batteries...

[HouTXmetro]

If Hait continues to do a number on Gustav is it possible we could see center reformations?

[MJA]

Gustav's projected path is very similar to Frederic. I would link but don't how to.

[Smurfwicked]

I have a high speed connection & that image about burned up my modem, please reduce the size of that image Phoenix's Song!

[TideJoe]

Well Gustav is definitely taking a beating on the smallest strip of land possible. He is likely below hurricane strength or will soon be and may take a little longer to recover than previously anticipated. The legend of the island continues.

What are Dr. Bill Williams' ideas on this one? He's got a good track record on the tropics and has a ton of experience.

[KWT]

highly unlikely HouTXmetro as the centeris still very well defined indeed and we still have probably a strong TS, I'd guess based on current set-up around 60kts. As Hurakan image shows this doesn't look too stunning right now, still got deep convection, esp on the southern side as you'd expect.

Still it will have probably 5-6 days from now on with only minimal land interaction and so even if the core is ruined it has plenty of time under the basins highest heat content to explode back into life, I'd put money on this being a major hurricane by Friday unless it takes a more northerly track then predicited.

[HouTXmetro]

highly unlikely HouTXmetro as the centeris still very well defined indeed and we still have probably a strong TS, I'd guess based on current set-up around 60kts.

Still it will have probably 5-6 days from now on with only minimal land interaction and so even if the core is ruined it has plenty of time under the basins highest heat content to explode back into life, I'd put money on this being a major hurricane by Friday unless it takes a more northerly track then predicited.

It's not going to take much to take a more Northern track. Atleast through Eastern Cuba.

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, this is getting a bit off topic, so I'll make my remarks here and move on.

I'm not the prez of JB's fan club, but I've seen him stick it when the NHC didn't and vice versa.

As for the Florida thing, yes, the initial forecast graphic did have Gus crawling along the northern Cuba coastline, but it was moving NW in the general direction of the Keys.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Cone of uncertainty contained all of S. Florida and all of the Bahamas, so it wasn't like NHC was forecasting the storm to go in a completely opposite direction, it was just SW of a Miami hit by a hundred plus miles or so.

I'll certainly admit that JB can bite off more than he can chew sometimes, but I also remember that the NHC had to do some serious track adjustments with Katrina from early Friday, Aug. 26, 2005 to late on the same day.

Point is, they both can be on target, they both can be off target, and since each storm is different, I like to know what NHC, JB, and the other prof mets on this board are thinking about a storm, it's intensity, and its future path.

Nobody is totally bullet proof.

OK, back on topic.